Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources.China’s Southto-North Water Diversion Project(SNWD)is the largest water diversion project worldwide.Based on the pref...Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources.China’s Southto-North Water Diversion Project(SNWD)is the largest water diversion project worldwide.Based on the prefecturelevel data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020,this study employs an empirical strategy of Differencesin-Differences(DID)to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production.The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production,measured by the agricultural value added.The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed,an alternative outcome is used,subsamples are estimated,and alternative estimation techniques are employed.This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low.In contrast,in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large.Given the low added value of grain crops,the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.展开更多
This study assess the effectiveness of groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing since the opening of the first phase of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,using survey and evaluation methods.Firstly,an analy...This study assess the effectiveness of groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing since the opening of the first phase of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,using survey and evaluation methods.Firstly,an analysis of water consumption structure and the usage of diverted river water in Beijing in recent years was conducted.Secondly,the volume of groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing after the 33 project's inauguration was examined,revealing a decrease from 1.96 billion m^(3) in 2014 to 1.35 billion m^(3) in 2020.The proportion of water supply reduced from 52.3%in 2014 to 33.3%in 2020,leading to an optimized water supply structure.By the end of 2020,groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing is estimated at 446 million m3,with a substantial reduction in over-exploitation of groundwater.Groundwater resources have been effectively replenished,and the strategic reserve capacity has been enhanced.Furthermore,this study evaluates the change in groundwater levels as an indicator of the effectiveness of pressure extraction.The declining trend of groundwater levels in Beijing has been effectively mitigated,and there has been a consistent rebound in groundwater levels over the past five years.展开更多
The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial u...The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.展开更多
The systematic analysis of the hierarchical relationship among the factors affecting the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects has theoretical value and practical significance for the sus...The systematic analysis of the hierarchical relationship among the factors affecting the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects has theoretical value and practical significance for the sustainable development of large-scale water diversion projects. Through the investigation of relevant literature, books, web pages, materials, and discussions with relevant experts and scholars, a total of 23 factors influencing the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects were identified. Then using ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling Method) to analyze the causality of each factor, a multi-level hierarchical structure model was obtained. The results showed that: 1) The surface-level influencing factors of the sustaina<span>ble supply chain implementation of the water diversion project mainly i</span>ncluded 8 factors such as water-saving awareness and water-saving intensity in the diversion area, water quality, water pollution and other disasters, effective incentive mechanisms, etc., and surface-level influencing factors were directly related to the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversio<span>n projects. 2) The indirect influencing factors of the sustainable supply chai</span>n of water diversion projects included 12 factors such as the water quality and quantity guarantee rate of the supply chain, the government’s enforcement of laws and regulations, water distribution, ecological compensation, and compensatio<span>n mechanisms for residents in the water source area. Indirect influencing</span> factor scan acts directly on the direct influencing factors, and int<span>ervening in the factors that can be controlled by humans is one of the important ways to improve the sustainable operation of water diversion proj</span><span>e</span><span>cts. 3) T</span><span>he fundamental influencing factors for the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects included three f</span>actors: Resettlement policy, government financial support, and sound laws and regulations. Deep influencing factors had multi-channel influence and controllability, and intervening in them was the main means to improve the sustainable operation of water diversion projects.展开更多
In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well...In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.展开更多
One of the basic characteristics of water distribution in China is that there is a deluge of water in the south and a deficiency in the north. To ease the water shortage in the north, the Chinese
China has started shifting from relying on supply management to demand management strategy in addressing its water shortage problems.Water option,a financial derivative for water commodity,has been utilized to manage ...China has started shifting from relying on supply management to demand management strategy in addressing its water shortage problems.Water option,a financial derivative for water commodity,has been utilized to manage water demands in the United States and Europe since the 1990 s but is still novel to China.In this study we analyzed the pros and cons of China’s existing system for water rights transfers and proposed an alternative,flexible trading instrument-water options for China.Incorporating the uncertainty to water option pricing,this study first conducted an empirical analysis of the water option in the water-receiving area of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Transfer Project of China,and then evaluated the benefits of the water option applications.Results show that water option trading can bring water cost saving and increase the potential industrially added value for industrial enterprises in the receiving area,and trading of short-and-medium term water options is more favorable than the long-term water options trading.The novel water option trading proposed in this study,once verified through pilot studies,will be helpful in addressing water shortage problems in China.展开更多
Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route...Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route of the South-to-North(MRSNWDP),the current water-saving potential of the water-receiving areas within the municipalities of Shandong was analyzed.Different water-saving scenarios were constructed and analyzed with key water-saving indexes in various industries.These indexes include the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,total water consumption of industrial sectors with an added value of over 10000 RMB,average leakage rate of the urban public water supply pipe network and the penetration rate of water-saving appliances.Based on the scenarios,comprehensive water-saving potential of the 13 water-receiving area cities was calculated.The results show that the water-saving potential of the study area is at a relative high level.However,some cities still have a certain amount of water-saving potential for agriculture and industry to be elevated.Under the recommended water-saving scenario,the water-saving potential is 1.134 billion m3,accounting for 5.33%of the current total water consumption,of which 460 million m3 is in agriculture,600 million m3 in industry,is and 74.20 million m3 in urban domestic sector.Comprehensive water-saving measures for the study area were proposed from the aspects of agricultural,industrial and domestic water uses.Agricultural and industrial water saving are more significant.The major cities for agricultural water saving include Jining City,Heze City,Weifang City and Jinan City;the focus cities of industrial water saving mainly include Weihai City,Jining City and Qingdao City and etc.;the key water-saving areas for urban use mainly include Zaozhuang City,Jining City and Heze City.展开更多
The water distribution network is an important part of the plain water environment improvement system. To make efficient use of the regional water diversion source, scientifically distribute the water diversion flow a...The water distribution network is an important part of the plain water environment improvement system. To make efficient use of the regional water diversion source, scientifically distribute the water diversion flow and improve the water environment carrying capacity of Haishu Plain, the river network hydrodynamic model is used in this paper to simulate the water intake location, reasonable water quantity and influence range of water transfer in Haishu Plain. The simulation results have high accuracy, which can provide a scientific basis for the scale, water transfer mechanism and project layout of water transfer construction in Haishu Plain and show a strong reference value for the study of water diversion and distribution scheme of coastal plain river network.展开更多
Interbasin water transfer projects(IBWT's)have emerged as dispersal corridors for aquatic species.However,little is known about how water transfer affects regional spread dynamics,or shapes the genetic diversity p...Interbasin water transfer projects(IBWT's)have emerged as dispersal corridors for aquatic species.However,little is known about how water transfer affects regional spread dynamics,or shapes the genetic diversity patterns of non-native populations.Shimofuri Goby Tridentiger bifasciatus is a globally introduced fish species with many wellestablished populations in IBWT's.Here,we used nuclear microsatellites to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of the Shimofuri Goby in its native and introduced sites belonging to two IBWT's in China.Our objectives were to(1)reveal the genetic diversity patterns of the Shimofuri Goby during regional spread,and(2)identify its mode of spreading in water transfer systems.We observed(1)a high level of genetic diversity in non-native populations without evidence of bottleneck effects,(2)that non-native populations with a longer water transfer times had a higher private allele richness,and(3)that non-native populations showed a highly mixed genetic structure,low level of genetic differentiation,and no significant relationship between geographical and genetic distances.Our results indicate that the genetic patterns of diversity of non-native populations are mainly shaped by a linear cascade spread processes due to long-distance movement of larvae,and are probably related to propagule pressure caused by the construction of water transfer.To manage the non-native populations of T.bifasciatus,preventive actions and physical removal should be implemented in IBWT's.展开更多
Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects...Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects,such as the subject,the object and the target of the financing model,Grey Target Model is established in this paper.First,the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method.Then Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index.Experts' opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method.The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision.In addition,this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model.For other water diversion projects,the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.展开更多
Water diversion projects are an effective measure to mitigate water shortages in water-limited areas.Understanding the risk of such projects increasing concurrent drought between the water intake and receiving regions...Water diversion projects are an effective measure to mitigate water shortages in water-limited areas.Understanding the risk of such projects increasing concurrent drought between the water intake and receiving regions is essential for sustainable water management.This study calculates concurrent drought probability between the water intake and receiving regions of the Hanjiang to Weihe River Water Diversion Project using Standardized Precipitation Index and Copula functions.Results showed an increasing trend in drought probability across both the water intake and receiving regions from 2.67%and 8.38%to 12.47%and 14.18%,respectively,during 1969-2018.The return period of concurrent drought decreased from 111.11 to 13.05 years,indicating larger risk of simultaneous drought between the two regions.Projections from CMIP6 suggested that under the SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios,concurrent drought probability would increase by 2.40%and 7.72%in 2019-2050 compared to that in 1969-1990,respectively.Although increases in precipitation during 2019-2050 could potentially alleviate drought conditions relative to those during 1991-2018,high precipitation variability adds to the uncertainty about future concurrent drought.These findings provide a basis for better understanding concurrent drought and its impact on water diversion projects in a changing climate,and facilitate the establishment of adaptation countermeasures to ensure sustainable water availability.展开更多
基金supported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China(202207211210319)。
文摘Water diversion can alleviate water shortages caused by the uneven distribution of water resources.China’s Southto-North Water Diversion Project(SNWD)is the largest water diversion project worldwide.Based on the prefecturelevel data of China’s Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2020,this study employs an empirical strategy of Differencesin-Differences(DID)to analyze the impact of SNWD on agricultural production.The results show that SNWD has significantly increased agricultural production,measured by the agricultural value added.The estimated results of the benchmark model remain robust when the contemporaneous policy is addressed,an alternative outcome is used,subsamples are estimated,and alternative estimation techniques are employed.This study argues that the potential impact mechanism may be that SNWD significantly increases the acreage for cash crops but reduces that for grain crops.Heterogeneity analysis shows that in prefectures with high temperature or land potential,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively low.In contrast,in areas with prolonged sunshine or high slopes,SNWD’s impact on agricultural value added is relatively large.Given the low added value of grain crops,the government should consider strengthening food security by subsidizing water supply to sustain grain production.
基金funded by the projects"Impacts of water transfer from the western route of the Southto-North Water Diversion Project on the ecological environment of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and coping strategies"(No.2022YFC3202400)"Ecological Compensation Mechanism and Biological Invasion Risk Analysis of Water Transfer from the Western Route Project"(No.2022YFC 3202404).
文摘This study assess the effectiveness of groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing since the opening of the first phase of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,using survey and evaluation methods.Firstly,an analysis of water consumption structure and the usage of diverted river water in Beijing in recent years was conducted.Secondly,the volume of groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing after the 33 project's inauguration was examined,revealing a decrease from 1.96 billion m^(3) in 2014 to 1.35 billion m^(3) in 2020.The proportion of water supply reduced from 52.3%in 2014 to 33.3%in 2020,leading to an optimized water supply structure.By the end of 2020,groundwater pressure extraction in Beijing is estimated at 446 million m3,with a substantial reduction in over-exploitation of groundwater.Groundwater resources have been effectively replenished,and the strategic reserve capacity has been enhanced.Furthermore,this study evaluates the change in groundwater levels as an indicator of the effectiveness of pressure extraction.The declining trend of groundwater levels in Beijing has been effectively mitigated,and there has been a consistent rebound in groundwater levels over the past five years.
基金Under the auspices of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0500201-01)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41671365,41771464)the Annual Project of the Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(No.2018-21)
文摘The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MR-SNWDP)in China,with construction beginning in 2003,diverts water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to North China for residential,agriculture and industrial use.The water source area of the MR-SNWDP is the region that is most sensitive to and most affected by the construction of this water diversion project.In this study,we used Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM)and HJ-1 A/B images from 2000 to 2015 by an object-based approach with a hierarchical classification method for mapping land cover in the water source area.The changes in land cover were illuminated by transfer matrixes,single dynamic degree,slope zones and fractional vegetation cover(FVC).The results indicated that the area of cropland decreased by 31%and was replaced mainly by shrub over the past 15 years,whereas forest and settlements showed continuous increases of 29.2% and 77.7%,respectively.The changes in cropland were obvious in all slope zones and decreased most remarkably(–43.8%)in the slope zone above 25°.Compared to the FVC of forest and shrub,significant improvement was exhibited in the FVC of grassland,with a growth rate of 16.6%.We concluded that local policies,including economic development,water conservation and immigration resulting from the construction of the MR-SNWDP,were the main drivers of land cover changes;notably,they stimulated the substantial and rapid expansion of settlements,doubled the wetlands and drove the transformation from cropland to settlements in immigration areas.
文摘The systematic analysis of the hierarchical relationship among the factors affecting the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects has theoretical value and practical significance for the sustainable development of large-scale water diversion projects. Through the investigation of relevant literature, books, web pages, materials, and discussions with relevant experts and scholars, a total of 23 factors influencing the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects were identified. Then using ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling Method) to analyze the causality of each factor, a multi-level hierarchical structure model was obtained. The results showed that: 1) The surface-level influencing factors of the sustaina<span>ble supply chain implementation of the water diversion project mainly i</span>ncluded 8 factors such as water-saving awareness and water-saving intensity in the diversion area, water quality, water pollution and other disasters, effective incentive mechanisms, etc., and surface-level influencing factors were directly related to the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversio<span>n projects. 2) The indirect influencing factors of the sustainable supply chai</span>n of water diversion projects included 12 factors such as the water quality and quantity guarantee rate of the supply chain, the government’s enforcement of laws and regulations, water distribution, ecological compensation, and compensatio<span>n mechanisms for residents in the water source area. Indirect influencing</span> factor scan acts directly on the direct influencing factors, and int<span>ervening in the factors that can be controlled by humans is one of the important ways to improve the sustainable operation of water diversion proj</span><span>e</span><span>cts. 3) T</span><span>he fundamental influencing factors for the sustainable supply chain implementation of water diversion projects included three f</span>actors: Resettlement policy, government financial support, and sound laws and regulations. Deep influencing factors had multi-channel influence and controllability, and intervening in them was the main means to improve the sustainable operation of water diversion projects.
文摘In this paper, according to the rule of unbalanced sediment transport and the analysis of field data, different water diversion schemes were theoretically studied, including the erosion and sedimentation trend as well as their impacts on the environment of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River. The results showed that the 95×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme will cause less erosion and water level decrease than the 15×10 8m 3 water diversion scheme. Using a water diversion scheme of 95×10 8m 3, the decrease of water quantity can impact the river hydrodynamic regime substantially and the environments of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River will be greatly affected. It is therefore necessary to develop new water resources or build projects to meet the need of the environment and the needs for navigation.
文摘One of the basic characteristics of water distribution in China is that there is a deluge of water in the south and a deficiency in the north. To ease the water shortage in the north, the Chinese
基金Under the auspices of the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project(No.17XJA790005)Grant of Shaanxi Social Science Association&Shaanxi Statistics Bureau(No.2019TJ053)。
文摘China has started shifting from relying on supply management to demand management strategy in addressing its water shortage problems.Water option,a financial derivative for water commodity,has been utilized to manage water demands in the United States and Europe since the 1990 s but is still novel to China.In this study we analyzed the pros and cons of China’s existing system for water rights transfers and proposed an alternative,flexible trading instrument-water options for China.Incorporating the uncertainty to water option pricing,this study first conducted an empirical analysis of the water option in the water-receiving area of the Hanjiang-Weihe River Transfer Project of China,and then evaluated the benefits of the water option applications.Results show that water option trading can bring water cost saving and increase the potential industrially added value for industrial enterprises in the receiving area,and trading of short-and-medium term water options is more favorable than the long-term water options trading.The novel water option trading proposed in this study,once verified through pilot studies,will be helpful in addressing water shortage problems in China.
基金We would like to give our thanks to Water Resources Department of Shandong Province and Water Resources Research Institute of Shandong Province for their help.
文摘Taking 13 water-receiving areas on the East Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(ERSNWDP)in Shandong Province as the study area,and comparing it with Jiangsu Province on the ERSNWDP and the Middle Route of the South-to-North(MRSNWDP),the current water-saving potential of the water-receiving areas within the municipalities of Shandong was analyzed.Different water-saving scenarios were constructed and analyzed with key water-saving indexes in various industries.These indexes include the effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water,total water consumption of industrial sectors with an added value of over 10000 RMB,average leakage rate of the urban public water supply pipe network and the penetration rate of water-saving appliances.Based on the scenarios,comprehensive water-saving potential of the 13 water-receiving area cities was calculated.The results show that the water-saving potential of the study area is at a relative high level.However,some cities still have a certain amount of water-saving potential for agriculture and industry to be elevated.Under the recommended water-saving scenario,the water-saving potential is 1.134 billion m3,accounting for 5.33%of the current total water consumption,of which 460 million m3 is in agriculture,600 million m3 in industry,is and 74.20 million m3 in urban domestic sector.Comprehensive water-saving measures for the study area were proposed from the aspects of agricultural,industrial and domestic water uses.Agricultural and industrial water saving are more significant.The major cities for agricultural water saving include Jining City,Heze City,Weifang City and Jinan City;the focus cities of industrial water saving mainly include Weihai City,Jining City and Qingdao City and etc.;the key water-saving areas for urban use mainly include Zaozhuang City,Jining City and Heze City.
文摘The water distribution network is an important part of the plain water environment improvement system. To make efficient use of the regional water diversion source, scientifically distribute the water diversion flow and improve the water environment carrying capacity of Haishu Plain, the river network hydrodynamic model is used in this paper to simulate the water intake location, reasonable water quantity and influence range of water transfer in Haishu Plain. The simulation results have high accuracy, which can provide a scientific basis for the scale, water transfer mechanism and project layout of water transfer construction in Haishu Plain and show a strong reference value for the study of water diversion and distribution scheme of coastal plain river network.
基金funded by the Key Project in Frontier Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.QYZDB-SSW-SMC041)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31870398).
文摘Interbasin water transfer projects(IBWT's)have emerged as dispersal corridors for aquatic species.However,little is known about how water transfer affects regional spread dynamics,or shapes the genetic diversity patterns of non-native populations.Shimofuri Goby Tridentiger bifasciatus is a globally introduced fish species with many wellestablished populations in IBWT's.Here,we used nuclear microsatellites to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of the Shimofuri Goby in its native and introduced sites belonging to two IBWT's in China.Our objectives were to(1)reveal the genetic diversity patterns of the Shimofuri Goby during regional spread,and(2)identify its mode of spreading in water transfer systems.We observed(1)a high level of genetic diversity in non-native populations without evidence of bottleneck effects,(2)that non-native populations with a longer water transfer times had a higher private allele richness,and(3)that non-native populations showed a highly mixed genetic structure,low level of genetic differentiation,and no significant relationship between geographical and genetic distances.Our results indicate that the genetic patterns of diversity of non-native populations are mainly shaped by a linear cascade spread processes due to long-distance movement of larvae,and are probably related to propagule pressure caused by the construction of water transfer.To manage the non-native populations of T.bifasciatus,preventive actions and physical removal should be implemented in IBWT's.
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.51209170,and 51479160)the foundation for the Plan Projects of Water Conservancy Science and Technology of Shaanxi Province (Grant No.2013SLKJ05)the Project Supported by Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China (Grant No.2016JQ5061)
文摘Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects require the appropriate financing model to attract large amounts of social investment.Therefore,financing model decision becomes the key of engineering construction.In three aspects,such as the subject,the object and the target of the financing model,Grey Target Model is established in this paper.First,the complex financing mode decision problems of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects are decomposed by using hierarchical decomposition method.Then Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of evaluation index.Experts' opinions financing model are transformed into the evaluation matrix based on the Dephi method.The Weighted Grey Target Model is used to calculate the approaching degree of financing model and assists financing mode decision.In addition,this paper takes the water diversion project from the Han to the Wei River of Shaanxi Province as a verification example for the model.For other water diversion projects,the evaluation results are also reliable and provide theoretical references for the financing model decision of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171095)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801333)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(2020JQ-417)Social Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(2020D039)。
文摘Water diversion projects are an effective measure to mitigate water shortages in water-limited areas.Understanding the risk of such projects increasing concurrent drought between the water intake and receiving regions is essential for sustainable water management.This study calculates concurrent drought probability between the water intake and receiving regions of the Hanjiang to Weihe River Water Diversion Project using Standardized Precipitation Index and Copula functions.Results showed an increasing trend in drought probability across both the water intake and receiving regions from 2.67%and 8.38%to 12.47%and 14.18%,respectively,during 1969-2018.The return period of concurrent drought decreased from 111.11 to 13.05 years,indicating larger risk of simultaneous drought between the two regions.Projections from CMIP6 suggested that under the SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5 scenarios,concurrent drought probability would increase by 2.40%and 7.72%in 2019-2050 compared to that in 1969-1990,respectively.Although increases in precipitation during 2019-2050 could potentially alleviate drought conditions relative to those during 1991-2018,high precipitation variability adds to the uncertainty about future concurrent drought.These findings provide a basis for better understanding concurrent drought and its impact on water diversion projects in a changing climate,and facilitate the establishment of adaptation countermeasures to ensure sustainable water availability.
