On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archi...On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archive work and archive undertaking in the new era.Starting from the relevant provisions of the new Archives Law,the collection of precious meteorological archives was discussed,and it is believed that only on the basis of clarifying the definition,collection responsibility subject,collection scope,ways and methods of precious meteorological archives can the relevant units be convenient to practice and obtain substantive collection effect.展开更多
Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China a...Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.展开更多
An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in di...An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.展开更多
Data on aerosol optical thickness(AOT) and single scattering albedo(SSA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument(OMI) measurements,respectively,are used jointly to ...Data on aerosol optical thickness(AOT) and single scattering albedo(SSA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument(OMI) measurements,respectively,are used jointly to examine the seasonal variations of aerosols over East Asia.The seasonal signals of the total AOT are well defined and nearly similar over the land and over the ocean.These findings indicate a natural cycle of aerosols that originate primarily from natural emissions. In contrast,the small-sized aerosols represented by the fine-mode AOT,which are primarily generated over the land by human activities,do not have evident seasonalscale fluctuations.A persistent maximum of aerosol loadings centered over the Sichuan basin is associated with considerable amounts of fine-mode aerosols throughout the year.Most regions exhibit a general spring maximum. During the summer,however,the aerosol loadings are the most marked over north central China.This occurrence may result from anthropogenic fine particles,such as sulfate and nitrate.Four typical regions were selected to perform a covariation analysis of the monthly gridded AOT and SSA.Over southwestern and southeastern China,if the aerosol loadings are small to moderate they are composed primarily of the highly absorptive aerosols. However,more substantial aerosol loadings probably represent less-absorptive aerosols.The opposite covariation pattern occurring over the coastal-adjacent oceans suggests that the polluted oceanic atmosphere is closely correlated with the windward terrestrial aerosols.North central China is strongly affected by dust aerosols that show moderate absorption.This finding may explain the lower variability in the SSA that accompanies increasing aerosol loadings in this region.展开更多
The relationship between precipitation intensity and cloud water in typhoon systems remains unclear.This study combined time-and space-synchronized precipitation and spectral data obtained by the Precipitation Radar(P...The relationship between precipitation intensity and cloud water in typhoon systems remains unclear.This study combined time-and space-synchronized precipitation and spectral data obtained by the Precipitation Radar(PR)as well as the Visible and Infrared Scanner(VIRS)onboard the TRMM satellite,to overcome the limitations of precipitation properties and cloud parameters not being synchronized in previous studies.A merged dataset of near-surface rain rate(RR)and corresponding cloud water path(CWP)was established and used to analyze the potential correlation between cloud microphysical properties and precipitation,to deepen our understanding of the evolution of cloud to rain.In addition,25 collocated satellite overpasses of mature typhoon cases in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1998 to 2012 were obtained,and the relationships between the CWP and RR of 144515 pixels were analyzed in detail.The results show that the CWP and RR of mature typhoon systems with different precipitation types,precipitation cloud phases,and vertical depths of precipitation can be fitted by a notable sigmoid function,which may be useful for estimating CWP and parameterizing precipitation in models.Furthermore,the relationship was applied and tested with an independent sample to show that RR is a significant indicator of CWP.展开更多
In this paper,the application of an algorithm for precipitation retrieval based on Himawari-8 (H8) satellite infrared data is studied.Based on GPM precipitation data and H8 Infrared spectrum channel brightness tempera...In this paper,the application of an algorithm for precipitation retrieval based on Himawari-8 (H8) satellite infrared data is studied.Based on GPM precipitation data and H8 Infrared spectrum channel brightness temperature data,corresponding "precipitation field dictionary" and "channel brightness temperature dictionary" are formed.The retrieval of precipitation field based on brightness temperature data is studied through the classification rule of k-nearest neighbor domain (KNN) and regularization constraint.Firstly,the corresponding "dictionary" is constructed according to the training sample database of the matched GPM precipitation data and H8 brightness temperature data.Secondly,according to the fact that precipitation characteristics in small organizations in different storm environments are often repeated,KNN is used to identify the spectral brightness temperature signal of "precipitation" and "non-precipitation" based on "the dictionary".Finally,the precipitation field retrieval is carried out in the precipitation signal "subspace" based on the regular term constraint method.In the process of retrieval,the contribution rate of brightness temperature retrieval of different channels was determined by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model.The preliminary experimental results based on the "quantitative" evaluation indexes show that the precipitation of H8 retrieval has a good correlation with the GPM truth value,with a small error and similar structure.展开更多
The water vapor budget and the cloud microphysical processes associated with a heavy rainfall system in the Dabie Mountain area in June 2008 were analyzed using mesoscale reanalysis data(grid resolution 0.03 × 0....The water vapor budget and the cloud microphysical processes associated with a heavy rainfall system in the Dabie Mountain area in June 2008 were analyzed using mesoscale reanalysis data(grid resolution 0.03 × 0.03,22 vertical layers,1-h intervals),generated by amalgamating the local analysis and prediction system(LAPS).The contribution of each term in the water vapor budget formula to precipitation was evaluated.The characteristics of water vapor budget and water substances in various phase states were evaluated and their differences in heavy and weak rainfall areas were compared.The precipitation calculated from the total water vapor budget accounted for 77% of actual precipitation;surface evaporation is another important source of water vapor.Water vapor within the domain of interest mainly came from the lower level along the southern boundary and the lower-middle level along the western boundary.This altitude difference for water vapor flux was caused by different weather systems.The decrease of local water vapor in the middle-lower layer in the troposphere during the system development stage also contributed to precipitation.The strength and the layer thickness of water vapor convergence and the content of various water substances in the heavy rainfall areas were obviously larger than in the weak rainfall areas.The peak values of lower-level water vapor convergence,local water vapor income,and the concentration of cloud ice all preceded the heaviest surface rainfall by a few hours.展开更多
This paper uses the ARW-WRF model to carry out a numerical simulation of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over southern China on the 22-23 May, 2014. A composite analysis method was used to analyze the evolution pro...This paper uses the ARW-WRF model to carry out a numerical simulation of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over southern China on the 22-23 May, 2014. A composite analysis method was used to analyze the evolution process and structural features of the convective cells on a convection line during this rainfall event. This analysis identified three stages:(1) Stage of activation: the equivalent potential temperature surfaces as lower layers start to bulge and form warm cells and weak vertical convective cloud towers which are subject to the impact of low-level warm moist updrafts in the rainfall sector;(2) Stage of development: the warm cells continue to bulge and form warm air columns and the convective cloud towers develop upwards becoming stronger as they rise;(3) Stage of maturity: the warm air columns start to connect with the stable layer in the upper air; the convective cloud tower will bend and tilt westward with each increasing in height, and the convection cell is characterized by a "crescent-shaped echo" above the 700 h Pa plane. During this stage the internal temperature of the cell is higher than the ambient temperature and the dynamic structural field is manifested as intensive vertical upward movement. The large-value centers of the northerly and westerly winds in the middle layer correspond to the warm moist center in the cells and the relatively cold center south of the warm air column. Further analysis shows that the formation of the "crescent-shaped" convective cell is associated with horizontal vorticity. Horizontal vorticity in the center and west of the warm cell experiences stronger cyclonic and anticyclonic shear transformation over time; this not only causes the original suborbicular cell echo shape to develop into a crescent-like shape, but also makes a convection line consisting of cells that develop to the northwest.展开更多
The paper discusses the core parameters of the 3 D and 4 D variational merging based on L1 norm regularization,namely optimization characteristic correlation length of background error covariance matrix and regulariza...The paper discusses the core parameters of the 3 D and 4 D variational merging based on L1 norm regularization,namely optimization characteristic correlation length of background error covariance matrix and regularization parameter. Classical 3 D/4 D variational merging is based on the theory that error follows Gaussian distribution. It involves the solution of the objective functional gradient in minimization iteration,which requires the data to have continuity and differentiability. Classic 3 D/4 D-dimensional variational merging method was extended,and L1 norm was used as the constraint coupling to the classical variational merged model. Experiment was carried out by using linear advection-diffusion equation as four-dimensional prediction model,and parameter optimization of this method is discussed. Considering the strong temporal and spatial variation of water vapor,this method is further applied to the precipitable water vapor( PWV) merging by calculating reanalysis data and GNSS retrieval.Parameters were adjusted gradually to analyze the influence of background field on the merging result,and the experiment results show that the mathematical algorithm adopted in this paper is feasible.展开更多
Satellite microwave instruments have different field of views(FOVs)in different channels.A direct average technique(“direct method”)is frequently used to generate gridded datasets in the earth science community.A la...Satellite microwave instruments have different field of views(FOVs)in different channels.A direct average technique(“direct method”)is frequently used to generate gridded datasets in the earth science community.A large FOV will measure radiance from outside the area of a designated grid cell.Thus,the direct method will lead to errors in a measurement over a grid cell because some pixels covering areas outside of the cell are involved in the averaging process.The Backus−Gilbert method(BG method)is proposed and demonstrated to minimize those uncertainties.Three sampling resolutions(6.5 km×6.0 km,11.5 km×6.0 km,13.0 km×6.0 km)are analyzed based on the scanning characteristics of the Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM)Microwave Imager(GMI)18.9-GHz channel.Brightness temperatures(TBs)at 0.5 km×0.5 km resolution over eastern China are used to obtain synthetic 18.9-GHz TBs at the three sampling resolutions.The direct and BG methods are both applied to create a 25 km×25 km gridded dataset and their related uncertainties are analyzed.Results indicate the error variances with the direct method are 3.00,3.68 and 4.99 K2 at the three sampling resolutions,respectively.By contrast,the BG method leads to a much smaller error variance than the direct method,especially over areas with a large TB gradient.Two GMI orbital measurements are applied to verify the BG method for gridding process is reliable.The BG method could be utilized for general purpose of creating a gridded dataset.展开更多
The impacts of different moisture profiles on the structure and vertical motion of squall lines were investigated by conducting a set of numerical simulations.The base state was determined by an observational sounding...The impacts of different moisture profiles on the structure and vertical motion of squall lines were investigated by conducting a set of numerical simulations.The base state was determined by an observational sounding,with high precipitable water representing moist environmental conditions in the East Asian monsoon region.To reveal the impact of moisture at different levels,the moisture content at the middle and low levels were changed in the numerical simulations.The numerical results showed that more convective cells developed and covered a larger area in the high moisture experiments,which was characteristic of the convection during the Meiyu season in China.In addition,high moisture content at low levels favored the development of updrafts and triggered convection of greater intensity.This was demonstrated by the thermodynamic parameters,including Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE),Lifted Index(LI),Lift Condensation Level(LCL),and Level of Free Convection(LFC).Dry air at middle levels led to strong downdrafts in the environment and updrafts in clouds.This could be because dry air at middle levels favors the release of latent heat,thereby promoting updrafts in clouds and downdrafts in the environment.Therefore,high relative humidity(RH)at low levels and low RH at middle levels favors updrafts in the cloud cores.Additionally,moist air at low levels and dry air at middle levels promotes the development of convective cells and the intensification of cold pool.The squall line can be organized by the outflow boundary induced by cold pool.The balance of cold pool and environmental wind shear is favorable for the maintenance and strengthening of squall lines.展开更多
Earthquake is one of the difficult problems that can not be solved as of this writing since the time when modern science was initiated over 300 years ago, and irregular events cannot be dealt with by using quantities ...Earthquake is one of the difficult problems that can not be solved as of this writing since the time when modern science was initiated over 300 years ago, and irregular events cannot be dealt with by using quantities examples before and followed by a view of the number of analysis systems in modern science; meanwhile, it covers the problem that how to use changeable information. Structural analysis method is developed particularly for the study of evolutionary transitional processes of the changing events by employing irregular information, and emphasizes the primitiveness of changes in events. Based on the data of sounding observation every 08 o'clock and 20 o'clock per day from China Meteorological Administration, in this paper, we employ the digital structural analysis method to analyze the process of the special, structural characteristics of 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Ms9.0 earthquake. The result shows that the method can reflect the process of geothermal structures before and after earthquake; it can reflect the congruity between geothermal "heat level" and the level of earthquake energy. When the structure before the earthquake is "the counter clockwise rolling current and the unstable structures" with "dry in lower levels and wet in upper levels", we should be worry about the problem of earthquake. In a word, geothermal information could reveal that earthquakes really would be "heralded".展开更多
By using the NCEP/GFS analysis data, CIMISS data, JMA and China’s Typhoon Networks, heavy rainstorm occurred in east of North China associated with Typhoon Damrey from August 3rd to 4th, 2012 was analyzed. Results sh...By using the NCEP/GFS analysis data, CIMISS data, JMA and China’s Typhoon Networks, heavy rainstorm occurred in east of North China associated with Typhoon Damrey from August 3rd to 4th, 2012 was analyzed. Results show during Damrey was going nearby Tianjin City and Hebei province of China, heavy rainstorm was observed in the cities of Qinhuangdao and Tangshan. The southerly jet stream from the southern side of the subtropical high and the periphery of Typhoon Saola is the conveyor belt for water vapor and energy, which enables Damrey to maintain for a long time and provide water vapor and heat conditions for rainfall in east of North China. The structure of Damrey caused a strong updraft in east of North China with a K-index greater than 35°C, which provided a favorable condition for the heavy rainstorm. The typhoon rainstorms in North China are the result of the interaction of the westerly, subtropical and tropical systems. In this heavy rain period, there was an obvious interaction between subtropical and tropical systems. This study has investigated the interaction between the northwestern Pacific typhoon and the North China heavy rainstorm, including the circulation characteristics of the typhoon and North China before and after the regional heavy rainstorm. Additionally, the climate background provides a reliable basis for the heavy rain forecast.展开更多
Data assimilation algorithm depends on the basic assumption of unbiased observation error,so bias correction is one of the important steps in satellite data processing.In this paper,using the geostationary interferome...Data assimilation algorithm depends on the basic assumption of unbiased observation error,so bias correction is one of the important steps in satellite data processing.In this paper,using the geostationary interferometric infrared sounder(GIIRS)of FengYun-4 A(FY-4 A)observation and simulated brightness temperature based on background field,the brightness temperature bias correction of GIIRS channel is carried out based on random forest(RF)and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)machine learning.Based on the case data of Typhoon"Haishen",the correction effect of machine learning method is compared with Harris and Kelly’s"off-line"method,and the importance of different predictors to the bias correction is further discussed.The experimental results show that the systematic bias is effectively corrected,and the following conclusions are obtained:the correction effect is improved by adding geographic information(longitude and latitude)into the predictors;under the given combination of predictors,the correction effect of XGBoost is the best,followed by random forest,and finally offline method,but the three methods can correct the bias effectively;compared with long wave data of FY-4 A/GIIRS,machine learning may be more feasible for medium wave data bias correction.展开更多
Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately...Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately. In this paper, we simulate an extreme precipitation event with ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) assimilation of Doppler radial-velocity observations, and analyze the uncertainties of the assimilation. The results demonstrate that, without assimilation radar data, neither a single initialization of deterministic forecast nor an ensemble forecast with adding perturbations or multiple physical parameterizations can predict the location of strong precipitation. However, forecast was significantly improved with assimilation of radar data, especially the location of the precipitation. The direct cause of the improvement is the buildup of a deep mesoscale convection system with En KF assimilation of radar data. Under a large scale background favorable for mesoscale convection, efficient perturbations of upstream mid-low level meridional wind and moisture are key factors for the assimilation and forecast. Uncertainty still exists for the forecast of this case due to its limited predictability. Both the difference of large scale initial fields and the difference of analysis obtained from En KF assimilation due to small amplitude of initial perturbations could have critical influences to the event's prediction. Forecast could be improved through more cycles of En KF assimilation. Sensitivity tests also support that more accurate forecasts are expected through improving numerical models and observations.展开更多
Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009,it is found that most tornadoes in China(85%)occurred ove...Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009,it is found that most tornadoes in China(85%)occurred over plains.Specifically,large numbers of tornado occurrences are found in the Northeast Plain,the North China Plain,the middle-lower Yangtze Plain,and the Pearl River Delta Plain.A flat underlying surface is conducive to tornado occurrence,while the latitudal variation of tornado occurrence in China is not so obvious.Tornadoes mainly occur in summer,and the highest frequency is in July.Note that the beginning and the time span of tornado outbreaks are different in North and South China.Tornadoes occur during May-September in South China(south of 25°N),June-September in Northeast China(north of 40°N),July-September in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain,and July-August in North China(between25°and 40°N).More than 80%of total tornadoes occurred during the above periods for the specific regions.The 1960s and 1970s have seen about twice the average number of tornadoes(7.5 times per year)compared to the mean for 1960-2009.The most frequent occurrence of tornado was in the early and mid 1960s;there were large fluctuations in the 1970s;and the number of tornadoes in the 1980s approached the 50-yr average.Tornado occurrences gradually decreased in the late 1980s,and an abrupt change with dramatic decrease occurred in 1994.The decrease in the tornado occurrence frequency is consistent with the simultaneous climatic change in the meteorological elements that are favorable for tornado formation.Tornado formation requires large vertical wind shear and sufficient atmospheric moisture content near the ground.Changes in the vertical wind shear at both 0-1 and 0-6 km appear to be one important factor that results in the decrease in tornado formation.The changing tendency of relative humidity also has contributed to the decrease in tornado formation in China.展开更多
In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis...In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov). A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas: South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0-1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5-2.0 m s-1 for wind speed, and 20-25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.展开更多
The evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21-22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale...The evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21-22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale convective vortex (MCV). The mesoscale reanalysis data generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) at a 3-km horizontal resolution and a 1-h time resolution during the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) were utilized. The results show that two processes played key roles in the enhancement of convective instability. First, the mesoscale low-level jet strengthened and shifted eastward, leading to the convergence of warm-wet airflow and increasing convective instability at middle and low levels. Second, the warm-wet airflow interacted with the cold airflow from the north, causing increased vertical vorticity in the vicinity of steeply sloping moist isentropic surfaces. The combined action of these two processes caused the MCS to shift progressively eastward. Condensation associated with the MCS released latent heat and formed a layer of large diabatic heating in the middle troposphere, increasing the potential vorticity below this layer. This increase in potential vorticity created favorable conditions for the development of a low-level vortex circulation. The vertical motion associated with this low-level vortex further promoted the development of convection, creating a positive feedback between the deep convection and the low-level vortex circulation. This feedback mechanism not only promoted the maturation of the MCS, but also played the primary role in the evolution of the MCV. The MCV formed and developed due to the enhancement of the positive feedback that accompanied the coming together of the center of the vortex and the center of the convection. The positive feedback peaked and the MCV matured when these two centers converged. The positive feedback weakened and the MCV began to decay as the two centers separated and diverged.展开更多
基金Supported by the Key Research and Development Planning Project of Anhui Province(2022h11020002).
文摘On January 1,2021,the newly revised Archives Law of the People's Republic of China(hereinafter referred to as the new Archives Law)was officially implemented,providing legal protection for archive management,archive work and archive undertaking in the new era.Starting from the relevant provisions of the new Archives Law,the collection of precious meteorological archives was discussed,and it is believed that only on the basis of clarifying the definition,collection responsibility subject,collection scope,ways and methods of precious meteorological archives can the relevant units be convenient to practice and obtain substantive collection effect.
基金supported by the China National Science Foundation (Grant No. 41705029)Anhui Joint Foundation (Grant No.2208085UQ11)+2 种基金China Meteorological Administration special grants on innovation and development (Grant No. CXFZ2023J017)China Meteorological Administration special grants on decision-making meteorological service (Grant No. JCZX2022005)support from the innovation team at Anhui Meteorological Bureau
文摘Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.
基金supported by the state "973" project "Research on Theories and Methods of Monitoring and Predicting of Heavy Rainfall in South China" (Grant No. 2004CB418300)
文摘An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘Data on aerosol optical thickness(AOT) and single scattering albedo(SSA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer(MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument(OMI) measurements,respectively,are used jointly to examine the seasonal variations of aerosols over East Asia.The seasonal signals of the total AOT are well defined and nearly similar over the land and over the ocean.These findings indicate a natural cycle of aerosols that originate primarily from natural emissions. In contrast,the small-sized aerosols represented by the fine-mode AOT,which are primarily generated over the land by human activities,do not have evident seasonalscale fluctuations.A persistent maximum of aerosol loadings centered over the Sichuan basin is associated with considerable amounts of fine-mode aerosols throughout the year.Most regions exhibit a general spring maximum. During the summer,however,the aerosol loadings are the most marked over north central China.This occurrence may result from anthropogenic fine particles,such as sulfate and nitrate.Four typical regions were selected to perform a covariation analysis of the monthly gridded AOT and SSA.Over southwestern and southeastern China,if the aerosol loadings are small to moderate they are composed primarily of the highly absorptive aerosols. However,more substantial aerosol loadings probably represent less-absorptive aerosols.The opposite covariation pattern occurring over the coastal-adjacent oceans suggests that the polluted oceanic atmosphere is closely correlated with the windward terrestrial aerosols.North central China is strongly affected by dust aerosols that show moderate absorption.This finding may explain the lower variability in the SSA that accompanies increasing aerosol loadings in this region.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant no.91837310,41675041,41705011)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507200,2017YFC1501402)+2 种基金the Key research and development projects in Anhui province(201904a07020099)the Third Tibetan Plateau Scientific Experiment:Observations for Boundary Layer and Troposphere(Grant No.GYHY201406001)CLIMATE-TPE(ID 32070)in the framework of the ESA-MOST Dragon 4 program.
文摘The relationship between precipitation intensity and cloud water in typhoon systems remains unclear.This study combined time-and space-synchronized precipitation and spectral data obtained by the Precipitation Radar(PR)as well as the Visible and Infrared Scanner(VIRS)onboard the TRMM satellite,to overcome the limitations of precipitation properties and cloud parameters not being synchronized in previous studies.A merged dataset of near-surface rain rate(RR)and corresponding cloud water path(CWP)was established and used to analyze the potential correlation between cloud microphysical properties and precipitation,to deepen our understanding of the evolution of cloud to rain.In addition,25 collocated satellite overpasses of mature typhoon cases in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1998 to 2012 were obtained,and the relationships between the CWP and RR of 144515 pixels were analyzed in detail.The results show that the CWP and RR of mature typhoon systems with different precipitation types,precipitation cloud phases,and vertical depths of precipitation can be fitted by a notable sigmoid function,which may be useful for estimating CWP and parameterizing precipitation in models.Furthermore,the relationship was applied and tested with an independent sample to show that RR is a significant indicator of CWP.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805080)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,China(1708085QD89)+1 种基金Key Research and Development Program Projects of Anhui Province,China(201904a07020099)Open Foundation Project Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration(2016SYIAE14)
文摘In this paper,the application of an algorithm for precipitation retrieval based on Himawari-8 (H8) satellite infrared data is studied.Based on GPM precipitation data and H8 Infrared spectrum channel brightness temperature data,corresponding "precipitation field dictionary" and "channel brightness temperature dictionary" are formed.The retrieval of precipitation field based on brightness temperature data is studied through the classification rule of k-nearest neighbor domain (KNN) and regularization constraint.Firstly,the corresponding "dictionary" is constructed according to the training sample database of the matched GPM precipitation data and H8 brightness temperature data.Secondly,according to the fact that precipitation characteristics in small organizations in different storm environments are often repeated,KNN is used to identify the spectral brightness temperature signal of "precipitation" and "non-precipitation" based on "the dictionary".Finally,the precipitation field retrieval is carried out in the precipitation signal "subspace" based on the regular term constraint method.In the process of retrieval,the contribution rate of brightness temperature retrieval of different channels was determined by Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model.The preliminary experimental results based on the "quantitative" evaluation indexes show that the precipitation of H8 retrieval has a good correlation with the GPM truth value,with a small error and similar structure.
基金supported by the the State’s "973" project"Research on Theories and Methods of Monitoring and Predicting of Heavy Rainfall in South China" (Grant No.2004CB418300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Cloud-Resolving Modeling and Observational Studies of Heavy-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems (HRPMCSs) in the Yangtze River valley"(Grant No. 40930951)
文摘The water vapor budget and the cloud microphysical processes associated with a heavy rainfall system in the Dabie Mountain area in June 2008 were analyzed using mesoscale reanalysis data(grid resolution 0.03 × 0.03,22 vertical layers,1-h intervals),generated by amalgamating the local analysis and prediction system(LAPS).The contribution of each term in the water vapor budget formula to precipitation was evaluated.The characteristics of water vapor budget and water substances in various phase states were evaluated and their differences in heavy and weak rainfall areas were compared.The precipitation calculated from the total water vapor budget accounted for 77% of actual precipitation;surface evaporation is another important source of water vapor.Water vapor within the domain of interest mainly came from the lower level along the southern boundary and the lower-middle level along the western boundary.This altitude difference for water vapor flux was caused by different weather systems.The decrease of local water vapor in the middle-lower layer in the troposphere during the system development stage also contributed to precipitation.The strength and the layer thickness of water vapor convergence and the content of various water substances in the heavy rainfall areas were obviously larger than in the weak rainfall areas.The peak values of lower-level water vapor convergence,local water vapor income,and the concentration of cloud ice all preceded the heaviest surface rainfall by a few hours.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(Project 973:2013CB430103)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530427)+1 种基金Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2015LASW-A07)State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
文摘This paper uses the ARW-WRF model to carry out a numerical simulation of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event over southern China on the 22-23 May, 2014. A composite analysis method was used to analyze the evolution process and structural features of the convective cells on a convection line during this rainfall event. This analysis identified three stages:(1) Stage of activation: the equivalent potential temperature surfaces as lower layers start to bulge and form warm cells and weak vertical convective cloud towers which are subject to the impact of low-level warm moist updrafts in the rainfall sector;(2) Stage of development: the warm cells continue to bulge and form warm air columns and the convective cloud towers develop upwards becoming stronger as they rise;(3) Stage of maturity: the warm air columns start to connect with the stable layer in the upper air; the convective cloud tower will bend and tilt westward with each increasing in height, and the convection cell is characterized by a "crescent-shaped echo" above the 700 h Pa plane. During this stage the internal temperature of the cell is higher than the ambient temperature and the dynamic structural field is manifested as intensive vertical upward movement. The large-value centers of the northerly and westerly winds in the middle layer correspond to the warm moist center in the cells and the relatively cold center south of the warm air column. Further analysis shows that the formation of the "crescent-shaped" convective cell is associated with horizontal vorticity. Horizontal vorticity in the center and west of the warm cell experiences stronger cyclonic and anticyclonic shear transformation over time; this not only causes the original suborbicular cell echo shape to develop into a crescent-like shape, but also makes a convection line consisting of cells that develop to the northwest.
基金Supported by Open Foundation Project of Shenyang Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration(2016SYIAE14)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,China(1708085QD89)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805080)
文摘The paper discusses the core parameters of the 3 D and 4 D variational merging based on L1 norm regularization,namely optimization characteristic correlation length of background error covariance matrix and regularization parameter. Classical 3 D/4 D variational merging is based on the theory that error follows Gaussian distribution. It involves the solution of the objective functional gradient in minimization iteration,which requires the data to have continuity and differentiability. Classic 3 D/4 D-dimensional variational merging method was extended,and L1 norm was used as the constraint coupling to the classical variational merged model. Experiment was carried out by using linear advection-diffusion equation as four-dimensional prediction model,and parameter optimization of this method is discussed. Considering the strong temporal and spatial variation of water vapor,this method is further applied to the precipitable water vapor( PWV) merging by calculating reanalysis data and GNSS retrieval.Parameters were adjusted gradually to analyze the influence of background field on the merging result,and the experiment results show that the mathematical algorithm adopted in this paper is feasible.
基金This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1507200 and 2017YFC1501402)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0104)+1 种基金an NSFC Project(Grant Nos.91837310,41675041,and 41620104009)the Key Research and Development Projects in Anhui Province(Grant No.201904a07020099),and CLIMATE-TPE(ID 32070)under the framework of the ESA-MOST Dragon 4 program.
文摘Satellite microwave instruments have different field of views(FOVs)in different channels.A direct average technique(“direct method”)is frequently used to generate gridded datasets in the earth science community.A large FOV will measure radiance from outside the area of a designated grid cell.Thus,the direct method will lead to errors in a measurement over a grid cell because some pixels covering areas outside of the cell are involved in the averaging process.The Backus−Gilbert method(BG method)is proposed and demonstrated to minimize those uncertainties.Three sampling resolutions(6.5 km×6.0 km,11.5 km×6.0 km,13.0 km×6.0 km)are analyzed based on the scanning characteristics of the Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM)Microwave Imager(GMI)18.9-GHz channel.Brightness temperatures(TBs)at 0.5 km×0.5 km resolution over eastern China are used to obtain synthetic 18.9-GHz TBs at the three sampling resolutions.The direct and BG methods are both applied to create a 25 km×25 km gridded dataset and their related uncertainties are analyzed.Results indicate the error variances with the direct method are 3.00,3.68 and 4.99 K2 at the three sampling resolutions,respectively.By contrast,the BG method leads to a much smaller error variance than the direct method,especially over areas with a large TB gradient.Two GMI orbital measurements are applied to verify the BG method for gridding process is reliable.The BG method could be utilized for general purpose of creating a gridded dataset.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41705029,41675045)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA17010105)Key R&D Projects of Anhui Province(201904a07020099)。
文摘The impacts of different moisture profiles on the structure and vertical motion of squall lines were investigated by conducting a set of numerical simulations.The base state was determined by an observational sounding,with high precipitable water representing moist environmental conditions in the East Asian monsoon region.To reveal the impact of moisture at different levels,the moisture content at the middle and low levels were changed in the numerical simulations.The numerical results showed that more convective cells developed and covered a larger area in the high moisture experiments,which was characteristic of the convection during the Meiyu season in China.In addition,high moisture content at low levels favored the development of updrafts and triggered convection of greater intensity.This was demonstrated by the thermodynamic parameters,including Convective Available Potential Energy(CAPE),Lifted Index(LI),Lift Condensation Level(LCL),and Level of Free Convection(LFC).Dry air at middle levels led to strong downdrafts in the environment and updrafts in clouds.This could be because dry air at middle levels favors the release of latent heat,thereby promoting updrafts in clouds and downdrafts in the environment.Therefore,high relative humidity(RH)at low levels and low RH at middle levels favors updrafts in the cloud cores.Additionally,moist air at low levels and dry air at middle levels promotes the development of convective cells and the intensification of cold pool.The squall line can be organized by the outflow boundary induced by cold pool.The balance of cold pool and environmental wind shear is favorable for the maintenance and strengthening of squall lines.
文摘Earthquake is one of the difficult problems that can not be solved as of this writing since the time when modern science was initiated over 300 years ago, and irregular events cannot be dealt with by using quantities examples before and followed by a view of the number of analysis systems in modern science; meanwhile, it covers the problem that how to use changeable information. Structural analysis method is developed particularly for the study of evolutionary transitional processes of the changing events by employing irregular information, and emphasizes the primitiveness of changes in events. Based on the data of sounding observation every 08 o'clock and 20 o'clock per day from China Meteorological Administration, in this paper, we employ the digital structural analysis method to analyze the process of the special, structural characteristics of 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Ms9.0 earthquake. The result shows that the method can reflect the process of geothermal structures before and after earthquake; it can reflect the congruity between geothermal "heat level" and the level of earthquake energy. When the structure before the earthquake is "the counter clockwise rolling current and the unstable structures" with "dry in lower levels and wet in upper levels", we should be worry about the problem of earthquake. In a word, geothermal information could reveal that earthquakes really would be "heralded".
文摘By using the NCEP/GFS analysis data, CIMISS data, JMA and China’s Typhoon Networks, heavy rainstorm occurred in east of North China associated with Typhoon Damrey from August 3rd to 4th, 2012 was analyzed. Results show during Damrey was going nearby Tianjin City and Hebei province of China, heavy rainstorm was observed in the cities of Qinhuangdao and Tangshan. The southerly jet stream from the southern side of the subtropical high and the periphery of Typhoon Saola is the conveyor belt for water vapor and energy, which enables Damrey to maintain for a long time and provide water vapor and heat conditions for rainfall in east of North China. The structure of Damrey caused a strong updraft in east of North China with a K-index greater than 35°C, which provided a favorable condition for the heavy rainstorm. The typhoon rainstorms in North China are the result of the interaction of the westerly, subtropical and tropical systems. In this heavy rain period, there was an obvious interaction between subtropical and tropical systems. This study has investigated the interaction between the northwestern Pacific typhoon and the North China heavy rainstorm, including the circulation characteristics of the typhoon and North China before and after the regional heavy rainstorm. Additionally, the climate background provides a reliable basis for the heavy rain forecast.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805080)Special Project for Innovation and Development of Anhui Meteorological Bureau(CXB202101)Central Asian Fund for Atmospheric Science Research(CAAS202003)。
文摘Data assimilation algorithm depends on the basic assumption of unbiased observation error,so bias correction is one of the important steps in satellite data processing.In this paper,using the geostationary interferometric infrared sounder(GIIRS)of FengYun-4 A(FY-4 A)observation and simulated brightness temperature based on background field,the brightness temperature bias correction of GIIRS channel is carried out based on random forest(RF)and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)machine learning.Based on the case data of Typhoon"Haishen",the correction effect of machine learning method is compared with Harris and Kelly’s"off-line"method,and the importance of different predictors to the bias correction is further discussed.The experimental results show that the systematic bias is effectively corrected,and the following conclusions are obtained:the correction effect is improved by adding geographic information(longitude and latitude)into the predictors;under the given combination of predictors,the correction effect of XGBoost is the best,followed by random forest,and finally offline method,but the three methods can correct the bias effectively;compared with long wave data of FY-4 A/GIIRS,machine learning may be more feasible for medium wave data bias correction.
文摘Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately. In this paper, we simulate an extreme precipitation event with ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) assimilation of Doppler radial-velocity observations, and analyze the uncertainties of the assimilation. The results demonstrate that, without assimilation radar data, neither a single initialization of deterministic forecast nor an ensemble forecast with adding perturbations or multiple physical parameterizations can predict the location of strong precipitation. However, forecast was significantly improved with assimilation of radar data, especially the location of the precipitation. The direct cause of the improvement is the buildup of a deep mesoscale convection system with En KF assimilation of radar data. Under a large scale background favorable for mesoscale convection, efficient perturbations of upstream mid-low level meridional wind and moisture are key factors for the assimilation and forecast. Uncertainty still exists for the forecast of this case due to its limited predictability. Both the difference of large scale initial fields and the difference of analysis obtained from En KF assimilation due to small amplitude of initial perturbations could have critical influences to the event's prediction. Forecast could be improved through more cycles of En KF assimilation. Sensitivity tests also support that more accurate forecasts are expected through improving numerical models and observations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175043)
文摘Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009,it is found that most tornadoes in China(85%)occurred over plains.Specifically,large numbers of tornado occurrences are found in the Northeast Plain,the North China Plain,the middle-lower Yangtze Plain,and the Pearl River Delta Plain.A flat underlying surface is conducive to tornado occurrence,while the latitudal variation of tornado occurrence in China is not so obvious.Tornadoes mainly occur in summer,and the highest frequency is in July.Note that the beginning and the time span of tornado outbreaks are different in North and South China.Tornadoes occur during May-September in South China(south of 25°N),June-September in Northeast China(north of 40°N),July-September in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain,and July-August in North China(between25°and 40°N).More than 80%of total tornadoes occurred during the above periods for the specific regions.The 1960s and 1970s have seen about twice the average number of tornadoes(7.5 times per year)compared to the mean for 1960-2009.The most frequent occurrence of tornado was in the early and mid 1960s;there were large fluctuations in the 1970s;and the number of tornadoes in the 1980s approached the 50-yr average.Tornado occurrences gradually decreased in the late 1980s,and an abrupt change with dramatic decrease occurred in 1994.The decrease in the tornado occurrence frequency is consistent with the simultaneous climatic change in the meteorological elements that are favorable for tornado formation.Tornado formation requires large vertical wind shear and sufficient atmospheric moisture content near the ground.Changes in the vertical wind shear at both 0-1 and 0-6 km appear to be one important factor that results in the decrease in tornado formation.The changing tendency of relative humidity also has contributed to the decrease in tornado formation in China.
基金Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development （973） Program of China （2004CB418307）+6 种基金Special Public Welfare Research Fund for Meteorological Profession of Ministry of Science and Technology （GYHY200706012 and GYHY200906010）National Natural Science Foundation of China （40930951）Special Project of Scientific Research of Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain（1011）New Technology Promotion Project of China Meteorological Administration （CMATG2008Z08）
文摘In this study, the observational data acquired in the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) from May to July 2008 and 2009 were integrated and assimilated with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; information available online at http://laps.fsl.noaa.gov). A high-resolution mesoscale analysis dataset was then generated at a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 3 h in four observational areas: South China, Central China, Jianghuai area, and Yangtze River Delta area. The quality of this dataset was evaluated as follows. First, the dataset was qualitatively compared with radar reflectivity and TBB image for specific heavy rainfall events so as to examine its capability in reproduction of mesoscale systems. The results show that the SCHeREX analysis dataset has a strong capability in capturing severe mesoscale convective systems. Second, the mean deviation and root mean square error of the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis fields were analyzed and compared with radiosonde data. The results reveal that the errors of geopotential height, temperature, relative humidity, and wind of the SCHeREX analysis were within the acceptable range of observation errors. In particular, the average error was 45 m for geopotential height between 700 and 925 hPa, 1.0-1.1°C for temperature, less than 20% for relative humidity, 1.5-2.0 m s-1 for wind speed, and 20-25° for wind direction. The above results clearly indicate that the SCHeREX mesoscale analysis dataset is of high quality and sufficient reliability, and it is applicable to refined mesoscale weather studies.
基金Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2004CB418300)
文摘The evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21-22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale convective vortex (MCV). The mesoscale reanalysis data generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) at a 3-km horizontal resolution and a 1-h time resolution during the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) were utilized. The results show that two processes played key roles in the enhancement of convective instability. First, the mesoscale low-level jet strengthened and shifted eastward, leading to the convergence of warm-wet airflow and increasing convective instability at middle and low levels. Second, the warm-wet airflow interacted with the cold airflow from the north, causing increased vertical vorticity in the vicinity of steeply sloping moist isentropic surfaces. The combined action of these two processes caused the MCS to shift progressively eastward. Condensation associated with the MCS released latent heat and formed a layer of large diabatic heating in the middle troposphere, increasing the potential vorticity below this layer. This increase in potential vorticity created favorable conditions for the development of a low-level vortex circulation. The vertical motion associated with this low-level vortex further promoted the development of convection, creating a positive feedback between the deep convection and the low-level vortex circulation. This feedback mechanism not only promoted the maturation of the MCS, but also played the primary role in the evolution of the MCV. The MCV formed and developed due to the enhancement of the positive feedback that accompanied the coming together of the center of the vortex and the center of the convection. The positive feedback peaked and the MCV matured when these two centers converged. The positive feedback weakened and the MCV began to decay as the two centers separated and diverged.
