The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characteriz...The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.展开更多
In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an exp...In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an experiment of the typhoon track prediction is made with the direct use of the Advanced TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) microwave radiance data in three-dimensional variational data assimilation. The prediction result shows that the experiment with the ATOVS microwave radiance data can not only successfully predict the observed fact that typhoon Rammasun moves northward and turns right, but can also simulate the action of the fast movement of the typhoon, which cannot be simulated with only conventional radiosonde data. The skill of the typhoon track prediction with the ATOVS microwave radiance data is much better than that without the ATOVS data. The typhoon track prediction of the former scheme is consistent in time and in location with the observation. The direct assimilation of ATOVS microwave radiance data is an available way to solve the problem of the sparse observation data over the tropical ocean, and has great potential in being applied to typhoon track prediction.展开更多
This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indic...This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.展开更多
The Subarnarekha River in east India experiences frequent high magnitude flooding in monsoon season.In this study,we present an in-depth analysis of flood hydrology and GIS-based flood susceptibility mapping of the en...The Subarnarekha River in east India experiences frequent high magnitude flooding in monsoon season.In this study,we present an in-depth analysis of flood hydrology and GIS-based flood susceptibility mapping of the entire catchment.About 40 years of annual peak discharge data,historical cross-sections of different gauging sites,and 12 flood conditioning factors were considered.Our flood susceptibility mapping followed an expert knowledge-based multi-parametric analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and optimized AHP-VIP methods.Peak hydrology data indicated more than 5 times higher discharge contrasted with the mean streamflow of the peak monsoon month in all hydro-monitoring stations that correspond to possible overbank flooding in the shallow semi-alluvial reaches of the Subarnarekha River.Widthdepth ratio revealed continuous changes on the channel cross-sections at decadal scale in all gauging sites.Predicted flood susceptibility map through optimized AHP-VIP method showed a great amount of areas(38%)have a high probability of flooding and demands earnest attention of administrative bodies.The AHP-VIP based flood susceptibility map was theoritically validated through AUC approach and it showed fairly high accuracy(AUC=0.93).Our study offers an exceptionally cost and time effective solution to the flooding issues in the Subarnarekha basin.展开更多
In this study, using the ECMWF reanalysis data, the possible linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern （PNA） and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） during boreal winter （December- Febru...In this study, using the ECMWF reanalysis data, the possible linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern （PNA） and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） during boreal winter （December- February） is investigated. The PNA and the NAO pattern are obtained by performing Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function （REOF） analysis on an anomalous daily mean 300-hPa geopotential height field. The composite daily NAO indices show that the NAO indices are prone to be negative （positive） when the contemporary PNA indices are extremely positive （negative）. The correlation coefficients between the daily PNA and NAO indices also confirm that, indeed, there is a significant anti-correlation between the PNA and NAO indices. The correlation peaks at a lag of 0 days （meaning contemporary correlation）, and its value is 0.202. Analyses of a newly defined Rossby wave breaking index and diagnostics of the stream function tendency equation indicate that the anti-correlation between PNA and NAO may be caused by the anomalous Rossby wave breaking events associated with the PNA pattern.展开更多
The spatial-temporal patterns of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity changes caused by the warm ocean mesoscale eddy(WOME) distribution are evaluated using two sets of idealized numerical experiments. The results show that...The spatial-temporal patterns of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity changes caused by the warm ocean mesoscale eddy(WOME) distribution are evaluated using two sets of idealized numerical experiments. The results show that the TC was intensified and weakened when a WOME was close to and far away from the TC center, respectively.The area where the WOME enhanced(weakened) TC intensity is called the inner(outer) area in this study.Amplitudes of the enhancement and weakening caused by the WOME in the inner and outer area decreased and increased over time, while the ranges of the inner and outer area diminished and expanded, respectively. The WOME in the inner area strengthened the secondary circulation of the TC, increased heat fluxes, strengthened the symmetry, and weakened the outer spiral rainband, which enhanced TC intensity. The effect was opposite if the WOME was in the outer area, and it weakened the TC intensity. The idealized simulation employed a stationary TC, and thus the results may only be applied to TCs with slow propagation. These findings can improve our understanding of the interactions between TC and the WOME and are helpful for improving TC intensity forecasting by considering the effect of the WOME in the outer areas.展开更多
The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs： the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0; the Meteorological Research Institute ...The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs： the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0; the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3; and the Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. For each model, we use two horizon- tal resolution configurations for the period 1998-2008. Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes, as measured by the pattern correla- tion coefficient and equitable threat score. Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent. No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat. Regionally, in- creased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation, the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon. An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon axe reduced in all high-resolution configurations. Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa, but substantial differences exist in the responses over the Indian monsoon region, where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs. This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for simulation of the Indian monsoon.展开更多
Tropical cyclones （TCs） formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean （NWP） can cross the South China Sea （SCS） sometimes. It is found that the TC tracks in the SCS in November are shifted to the north after 1980 compar...Tropical cyclones （TCs） formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean （NWP） can cross the South China Sea （SCS） sometimes. It is found that the TC tracks in the SCS in November are shifted to the north after 1980 compared with those before 1980. Both data analyses and numerical simulations show that the surface warming in the SCS may contribute to this more northward shift. The warming produces a cyclonic atmosphere circulation anomaly in the northwestern SCS and an associated southerly in the central SCS steering the TCs to the north.展开更多
By statistically analyzing the storm data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) over the Bengal Bay during the period 1945-2006,it is found that the yearly averaged tropical cyclone(TC) number over the Bay of Be...By statistically analyzing the storm data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) over the Bengal Bay during the period 1945-2006,it is found that the yearly averaged tropical cyclone(TC) number over the Bay of Bengal is 8.12,which takes place in any month of the whole year;February and March have the fewest TC numbers.The TC numbers begin to increase starting in April and arrive at a peak in October.Differing from TC over the Bay of Bengal,the tropical storms(TS) over the Bay of Bengal has two peak periods,appear in May and in October or November,respectively.With regard to TS intensity,the super severe storm of H4 criterion appeared only one time during the period 1971-1986,but appeared eight times during the period 1987-2006.The monthly change of the original position,the averaged maintaining time,and the longest maintaining time of TS also have two peak values:They appear in April or May and in October or November,respectively.The peak value of the original position in October or November is bigger than that in April or May.The peak value of the average maintaining time and the longest main-taining time of the TS in April or May is bigger than that in October or November.TC landfall path is mostly moving toward northwest or west and accounts for 56.7 percent.The landfall path of the TS differs from that of TC in some respects.The main difference is that the numbers of the northwestern path and un-landfall of TS are less than those for TC,and the numbers of the western path and northeastern path of TS are greater than for TC.Because of the landfall TS in the north-east path has a peak,it and the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan Province are closely related;it is on Yunnan Province's early summer precipita-tion that they have a great impact.展开更多
Hourly rainfall estimates from integrated satellite data are used to build a dynamically based climatology of convectively generated rainfall across the La Plata Basin in South America and adjacent oceans. Herein, the...Hourly rainfall estimates from integrated satellite data are used to build a dynamically based climatology of convectively generated rainfall across the La Plata Basin in South America and adjacent oceans. Herein, the focus of this manuscript is on 20S to 35S, including the Andes cordillera. Emphasis is placed on rainfall resulting from organized convective regimes which are known to produce the majority of seasonal rainfall in Southern South America and other continents. The statistical characteristics of individual events are quantified and examined with respect to regional atmospheric conditions. Among the factors considered are steering winds and wind shear, convective available potential energy (CAPE), localized sensible and latent heat sources over mountains and wetlands (Chaco), and the occurrence of baroclinic waves such as mid-latitude jet stream transient disturbances. Forcing and convective triggering mechanisms are inferred from the diagnosis of systematic patterns as evidenced in the continental diurnal cycle and longer periods of natural variability. The diurnal cycle of rainfall is especially informative with respect to the frequency and phase of rainfall associated with long-lived propagating rainfall “episodes”. Similar to findings in tropical northern Africa and tropical northern Australia, there is a strong presence of organized convection, which can propagate zonally hundreds to thousands of km as a coherent sequence of mesoscale convective systems. Convective triggering is often associated with elevated terrain, the Andes, and the La Plata basin region, which is especially rich in moist static energy. The passage of baroclinic waves over the Andes is consistent with eastward propagating clusters of convection, within which westward-propagating systems also reside. These organized convective systems over the La Plata Basin are analyzed with hourly rainfall estimates with CMOPRH method. Rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution were obtained between December 2002 and June 2008. Very few data are missing so it is one of the most complete, longest and highest resolution data sets available to date that allows a comprehensive description of spatial and temporal distribution of convection from its hourly to interannual variability over the region. In this work, diurnal, intra and inter seasonal and interannual cycles are obtained and examined in the light of episodes of organized convection. Daily, monthly and yearly spatial patterns of rainfall accumulation over the La Plata Basin region vary both inter- and intra-seasonally and are forced by underlying dynamic and thermodynamics mechanisms. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall are used to describe the genesis, structure, longevity, phase speed and inferences of the underlying dynamics and thermodynamics of episodes of organized convection. The episodes of organized convection are analyzed in terms of their duration, span, phase speed, starting and ending time, starting and ending longitude, month and year through frequency distribution analysis. Most episodes of organized convection move eastward across the La Plata Basin with variable phase speeds. Basic descriptive statistics indicate that the La Plata eastward propagating average phase speed is 13.0 m·s-1.展开更多
Low visibility condition hinders both air traffic and road traffic operations. Accurate forecasting of visibility condition helps aircraft operators and travelers to make better decisions and improve their safety. It ...Low visibility condition hinders both air traffic and road traffic operations. Accurate forecasting of visibility condition helps aircraft operators and travelers to make better decisions and improve their safety. It is, therefore, essential to investigate and identify the predictor variables that could influence and help predict visibility. The objective of this study is to identify the predictor variables that influence visibility. Four years of surface weather observations, from January 2011 to December 2014, were collected from the weather stations located in and around the state of North Carolina, USA for the model development. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and weighted least squares (WLS) regression models were developed for different visibility and elevation ranges. The results indicate that elevation, cloud cover, and precipitation are negatively associated with the visibility in visibility less than 15,000 m model. The elevation, cloud cover and the presence of water bodies within the vicinity play an important role in the visibility less than 2000 m model. The chances of low visibility condition are higher between six to twelve hours after the rainfall when compared to the first six hours after the rainfall. The results from this study help to understand the influence of predictor variables that should be dealt with to improve the traffic operations and safety concerning the visibility near the airports/road transportation network.展开更多
Recent attention has been put into recurring slope lineae (RSL), after the discovery that water is present in them. It is assumed that RSL are due to flowing water. However, even though that might be the case, the gen...Recent attention has been put into recurring slope lineae (RSL), after the discovery that water is present in them. It is assumed that RSL are due to flowing water. However, even though that might be the case, the general characteristics of RSL as well as their seasonal and spatial distribution in Mars, and their occurrence within craters, suggest that RSL correspond to the weathering of frozen aquifers, which coincides with slope stability processes occurring in impact craters and scree slopes from Earth. In this study, we associated RSL with similar weathering processes occurring on impact craters and hydrogeological processes occurring on Earth (including ice, water, and wind erosion and natural aquifer recharge processes). We were able to create a conceptual model on how RSL develop, why are they found mostly in mid latitudes around craters, why are they present in more frequency in one side of crates in high latitudes, and why are there more RSL in the Martian southern hemisphere. Considering the whole hydrogeological processes occurring in craters that experience RSL, we were able to predict where large quantities of liquid water are most likely to be present in the red planet.展开更多
The combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change.Yet,the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated b...The combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change.Yet,the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructure(GBGI),such as parks,wetlands,and engineered greening,which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures.Despite many reviews,the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear.This systematic literature review synthesizes the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits,identifies knowledge gaps,and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximize their benefits.After screening 27,486 papers,202 were reviewed,based on 51 GBGI types categorized under 10 main divisions.Certain GBGI(green walls,parks,street trees)have been well researched for their urban cooling capabilities.However,several other GBGI have received negligible(zoological garden,golf course,estuary)or minimal(private garden,allotment)attention.The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens(5.0±3.5℃),wetlands(4.9±3.2℃),green walls(4.1±4.2℃),street trees(3.8±3.1℃),and vegetated balconies(3.8±2.7℃).Under changing climate conditions(2070–2100)with consideration of RCP8.5,there is a shift in climate subtypes,either within the same climate zone(e.g.,Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa)or across other climate zones(e.g.,Dfb[continental warm-summer humid]to BSk[dry,cold semi-arid]and Cwa[temperate]to Am[tropical]).These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future.Given the importance of multiple services,it is crucial to balance their functionality,cooling performance,and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI.This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritizing effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating,filling research gaps,and promoting community resilience.展开更多
Ambient ozone(O3)was first identified as a key harmful air pollutant in the study of photochemical smog during the 1950s in Los Angeles.Subsequent studies uncovered that surface O3 was not emitted directly,but formed ...Ambient ozone(O3)was first identified as a key harmful air pollutant in the study of photochemical smog during the 1950s in Los Angeles.Subsequent studies uncovered that surface O3 was not emitted directly,but formed from the reactions of nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in sunlight.Quantifying the relationship between O3 and its two main precursors,NOx and VOCs,is considered to be the cornerstone for enabling successful mitigation of O3.In the past,a central area for the study and practice of O3 pollution control was Los Angeles and the surrounding area.The ambient O3 concentrations in the area were successfully and continuously reduced from 400 ppb(1 ppb=109 m^(3)/m^(3))to ca.120 ppb due to the joint mitigation of VOC and NOx emissions from 1960 to 2010[1].Nevertheless,O3 pollution still represents one of the most pervasive and stubborn environmental problems in megacities worldwide,with many populous centres regularly breaching WHO 8-hour Interim Targets-1 levels(160 lg/m^(3)),not to mention the updated air quality guideline value of 100 lg/m^(3).The difficulty of O3 pollution control is due to a number of factors,including its non-linear relationship with NOx[2],the difficulty of anthropogenic VOC control[3]and the contributions of biogenic VOCs.展开更多
The present study investigates the characteristics of turbulent transfer and the conditions for dust emission and transport using the dust concentration and micrometeorological data obtained during dust events occurri...The present study investigates the characteristics of turbulent transfer and the conditions for dust emission and transport using the dust concentration and micrometeorological data obtained during dust events occurring in the spring of 2004 over the Hunshandake desert area. The turbulent exchange coefficients and turbulent fluxes of momentum and heat are calculated. The relationships between dust flux, friction velocity, and wind speed are also explored. The results show that thermal turbulence is dominant during daytime of non-dusty days. The dynamic turbulence increases obviously and the sensible heat flux reduces by different degrees during dust events. There is an efficient downward transfer of momentum before duststorm occurrence, and both the dynamic turbulence and the thermal turbulence are important in the surface layer. The dynamic turbulence even exceeds the thermal turbulence during severe duststorm events. The values of dust flux vary in the range of -5 5, -30 30, and -200-300 μg m^-2 s^-1 during non-dusty days, blowing dust, and duststorm events, respectively. A slight upward transport of dust is observed during non-dusty days. The dust flux gradually varies from positive to negative during duststorm periods, which indicates the time evolution of dust events from dust rising to stably suspending and then deposition. The dust flux is found to be proportional to u＊^3. The threshold values of wind speed and friction velocity are about 6 and 0.4 m s^-1, respectively.展开更多
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and 3.5 years quasi-periodic oscillation (named TO hereafter) are exhibited in most of 48 weather stations of China by applying power spectrum analysis to the monthly rainfall data...The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and 3.5 years quasi-periodic oscillation (named TO hereafter) are exhibited in most of 48 weather stations of China by applying power spectrum analysis to the monthly rainfall data for the period from Jan. 1933 to Dec. 1987. In order to reveal the features of QBO and TO components, another rainfall data set in 160 stations over China for the period from Jan. 1951 to Dec. 1987 was analysed by means of a new method named complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF). The results show that both QBO and TO modes exhibit two propaga- tion ways: one originates in Northeast China, extends southward, passes through North China and reaches the eastern part of Northwest China and the northern part of Southwest China; the other appears over Guangdong and Fujian, then moves northward and westward respectively to the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin and Southwest China. These two paths of oscillation meet over North China and the area between the Changjiang River and the Huanghe River. A significant correlation exists between the interannual oscillation of the rainfall over China and that of the sea surface temperature (SST) at the equator. Although the correlation between the rainfall over China and the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific is rather weak, the correlation between their oscillation component is pronounced.展开更多
Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions.Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon p...Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions.Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon precipitation during the second half of the 20 th century.Understanding the cause of this change,especially possible anthropogenic origins,is important.Here,we compare observed changes in global land monsoon precipitation during 1948–2005 with those simulated by 5 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-phase 5(CMIP5)under different external forcings.We show that the observed drying trend is consistent with the model simulated response to anthropogenic forcing and to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in particular.We apply the optimal fingerprinting method to quantify anthropogenic influences on precipitation and find that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to 102%(62–144%for the 5–95%confidence interval)of the observed decrease in global land monsoon precipitation.A moisture budget analysis indicates that the reduction in precipitation results from reduced vertical moisture advection in response to aerosol forcing.Since much of the monsoon regions,such as India and China,have been experiencing rapid developments with increasing aerosol emissions in the past decedes,our results imply a further reduction in monsoon precipitation in these regions in the future if effective mitigations to reduce aerosol emissions are not deployed.The observed decline of aerosol emission in China since 2006 helps to alleviate the reducing trend of monsoon precipiptaion.展开更多
Coral reefs are in terminal decline.For conservation to be effective,naturally depauperate reefs must be distinguished from those recently degraded by humans.Traditional reef monitoring is time consuming and lacks the...Coral reefs are in terminal decline.For conservation to be effective,naturally depauperate reefs must be distinguished from those recently degraded by humans.Traditional reef monitoring is time consuming and lacks the longevity to make this distinction.Success in using foraminifera as bioindicators for reef health has hitherto levered their response to nutrients.Because ocean heat waves are the dominant driver of coral bleaching and death,there is compelling motivation to develop new foraminiferal bioindicators that inform on temperature stress over meaningful timescales.This study focuses on identifying which foraminifera respond systematically to the temperature stress that kills corals.Statistical models were used to compare endosymbiont-bearing foraminiferal families,collected along a heat-stress gradient spanning the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia,to live coral cover at the same sites.Results indicate that Amphisteginidae foraminifera and coral cover show a significant decline in abundance as heat stress increases along the transect sites.Furthermore,ocean productivity and salinity,both recognized environmental influences on foraminifera,are shown to be subordinate to temperature in their sway of this ecological patterning.These findings indicate the potential for using foraminifera to develop new indices capable of quantifying long-term thermal impacts on reefs.展开更多
基金the University of Reading, funded by the UK–China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fundsupported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030603 and 42175044)+1 种基金supported by CSSP-China. NPK was supported by an Independent Research Fellowship from the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No. NE/L010976/1)supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science via the NERC/GCRF programme “Atmospheric hazards in developing countries: risk assessment and early warnings ” (ACREW)。
文摘The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.
文摘In order to solve the difficult problem of typhoon track prediction due to the sparsity of conventional data over the tropical ocean, in this paper, the No. 0205 typhoon Rammasun of 4-6 July 2002 is studied and an experiment of the typhoon track prediction is made with the direct use of the Advanced TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) microwave radiance data in three-dimensional variational data assimilation. The prediction result shows that the experiment with the ATOVS microwave radiance data can not only successfully predict the observed fact that typhoon Rammasun moves northward and turns right, but can also simulate the action of the fast movement of the typhoon, which cannot be simulated with only conventional radiosonde data. The skill of the typhoon track prediction with the ATOVS microwave radiance data is much better than that without the ATOVS data. The typhoon track prediction of the former scheme is consistent in time and in location with the observation. The direct assimilation of ATOVS microwave radiance data is an available way to solve the problem of the sparse observation data over the tropical ocean, and has great potential in being applied to typhoon track prediction.
基金supported by the UK– China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) of China, as part of the Newton Fundsupported by the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science–Climate (NCAS– Climate) at the University of Reading
文摘This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.
文摘The Subarnarekha River in east India experiences frequent high magnitude flooding in monsoon season.In this study,we present an in-depth analysis of flood hydrology and GIS-based flood susceptibility mapping of the entire catchment.About 40 years of annual peak discharge data,historical cross-sections of different gauging sites,and 12 flood conditioning factors were considered.Our flood susceptibility mapping followed an expert knowledge-based multi-parametric analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and optimized AHP-VIP methods.Peak hydrology data indicated more than 5 times higher discharge contrasted with the mean streamflow of the peak monsoon month in all hydro-monitoring stations that correspond to possible overbank flooding in the shallow semi-alluvial reaches of the Subarnarekha River.Widthdepth ratio revealed continuous changes on the channel cross-sections at decadal scale in all gauging sites.Predicted flood susceptibility map through optimized AHP-VIP method showed a great amount of areas(38%)have a high probability of flooding and demands earnest attention of administrative bodies.The AHP-VIP based flood susceptibility map was theoritically validated through AUC approach and it showed fairly high accuracy(AUC=0.93).Our study offers an exceptionally cost and time effective solution to the flooding issues in the Subarnarekha basin.
文摘In this study, using the ECMWF reanalysis data, the possible linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern （PNA） and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） during boreal winter （December- February） is investigated. The PNA and the NAO pattern are obtained by performing Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function （REOF） analysis on an anomalous daily mean 300-hPa geopotential height field. The composite daily NAO indices show that the NAO indices are prone to be negative （positive） when the contemporary PNA indices are extremely positive （negative）. The correlation coefficients between the daily PNA and NAO indices also confirm that, indeed, there is a significant anti-correlation between the PNA and NAO indices. The correlation peaks at a lag of 0 days （meaning contemporary correlation）, and its value is 0.202. Analyses of a newly defined Rossby wave breaking index and diagnostics of the stream function tendency equation indicate that the anti-correlation between PNA and NAO may be caused by the anomalous Rossby wave breaking events associated with the PNA pattern.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41706034the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China under contract No.2020Q05+7 种基金the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and WavesChinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos KLOCW1803 and KLOCW1804the Open Fund of the Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical ModelingQingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology under contract No.2019A02the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 91428206 and 41376038the National Science and Technology Major Project under contract No.2016ZX05057015the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract Nos GASI-03-01-01-02 and GASI-IPOVAI-01-05the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1606405。
文摘The spatial-temporal patterns of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity changes caused by the warm ocean mesoscale eddy(WOME) distribution are evaluated using two sets of idealized numerical experiments. The results show that the TC was intensified and weakened when a WOME was close to and far away from the TC center, respectively.The area where the WOME enhanced(weakened) TC intensity is called the inner(outer) area in this study.Amplitudes of the enhancement and weakening caused by the WOME in the inner and outer area decreased and increased over time, while the ranges of the inner and outer area diminished and expanded, respectively. The WOME in the inner area strengthened the secondary circulation of the TC, increased heat fluxes, strengthened the symmetry, and weakened the outer spiral rainband, which enhanced TC intensity. The effect was opposite if the WOME was in the outer area, and it weakened the TC intensity. The idealized simulation employed a stationary TC, and thus the results may only be applied to TCs with slow propagation. These findings can improve our understanding of the interactions between TC and the WOME and are helpful for improving TC intensity forecasting by considering the effect of the WOME in the outer areas.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41420104006,41330423)Program of International S&T Cooperation under grant 2016YFE0102400+1 种基金the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fundfunded by an Independent Research Fellowship from the Natural Environment Research Council(Grant No.NE/L010976/1)
文摘The sensitivity of the representation of the global monsoon annual cycle to horizontal resolution is compared in three AGCMs： the Met Office Unified Model-Global Atmosphere 3.0; the Meteorological Research Institute AGCM3; and the Global High Resolution AGCM from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. For each model, we use two horizon- tal resolution configurations for the period 1998-2008. Increasing resolution consistently improves simulated precipitation and low-level circulation of the annual mean and the first two annual cycle modes, as measured by the pattern correla- tion coefficient and equitable threat score. Improvements in simulating the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal are region-dependent. No consistent response to resolution is found in simulating summer monsoon retreat. Regionally, in- creased resolution reduces the positive bias in simulated annual mean precipitation, the two annual-cycle modes over the West African monsoon and Northwestern Pacific monsoon. An overestimation of the solstitial mode and an underestimation of the equinoctial asymmetric mode of the East Asian monsoon axe reduced in all high-resolution configurations. Systematic errors exist in lower-resolution models for simulating the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Higher resolution models consistently improve the early summer monsoon onset over East Asia and West Africa, but substantial differences exist in the responses over the Indian monsoon region, where biases differ across the three low-resolution AGCMs. This study demonstrates the importance of a multi-model comparison when examining the added value of resolution and the importance of model physical parameterizations for simulation of the Indian monsoon.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract Nos 2013CB430301,2013CB430302,2012CB955601,and 2012CB955601the National Science and Technology Major Project under contract No.2016ZX05057015+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41276018 and 41376038the Global Air-Sea Interaction Project of State Oceanic Administration under contract Nos GASI-03-01-01-09 and GASI-03-01-01-02the National program on Global Change and Air-Sea interaction under contract Nos GASI-IPOVAI-01-05 and GASI-IPOVAI-04
文摘Tropical cyclones （TCs） formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean （NWP） can cross the South China Sea （SCS） sometimes. It is found that the TC tracks in the SCS in November are shifted to the north after 1980 compared with those before 1980. Both data analyses and numerical simulations show that the surface warming in the SCS may contribute to this more northward shift. The warming produces a cyclonic atmosphere circulation anomaly in the northwestern SCS and an associated southerly in the central SCS steering the TCs to the north.
文摘By statistically analyzing the storm data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC) over the Bengal Bay during the period 1945-2006,it is found that the yearly averaged tropical cyclone(TC) number over the Bay of Bengal is 8.12,which takes place in any month of the whole year;February and March have the fewest TC numbers.The TC numbers begin to increase starting in April and arrive at a peak in October.Differing from TC over the Bay of Bengal,the tropical storms(TS) over the Bay of Bengal has two peak periods,appear in May and in October or November,respectively.With regard to TS intensity,the super severe storm of H4 criterion appeared only one time during the period 1971-1986,but appeared eight times during the period 1987-2006.The monthly change of the original position,the averaged maintaining time,and the longest maintaining time of TS also have two peak values:They appear in April or May and in October or November,respectively.The peak value of the original position in October or November is bigger than that in April or May.The peak value of the average maintaining time and the longest main-taining time of the TS in April or May is bigger than that in October or November.TC landfall path is mostly moving toward northwest or west and accounts for 56.7 percent.The landfall path of the TS differs from that of TC in some respects.The main difference is that the numbers of the northwestern path and un-landfall of TS are less than those for TC,and the numbers of the western path and northeastern path of TS are greater than for TC.Because of the landfall TS in the north-east path has a peak,it and the beginning of the rainy season in Yunnan Province are closely related;it is on Yunnan Province's early summer precipita-tion that they have a great impact.
文摘Hourly rainfall estimates from integrated satellite data are used to build a dynamically based climatology of convectively generated rainfall across the La Plata Basin in South America and adjacent oceans. Herein, the focus of this manuscript is on 20S to 35S, including the Andes cordillera. Emphasis is placed on rainfall resulting from organized convective regimes which are known to produce the majority of seasonal rainfall in Southern South America and other continents. The statistical characteristics of individual events are quantified and examined with respect to regional atmospheric conditions. Among the factors considered are steering winds and wind shear, convective available potential energy (CAPE), localized sensible and latent heat sources over mountains and wetlands (Chaco), and the occurrence of baroclinic waves such as mid-latitude jet stream transient disturbances. Forcing and convective triggering mechanisms are inferred from the diagnosis of systematic patterns as evidenced in the continental diurnal cycle and longer periods of natural variability. The diurnal cycle of rainfall is especially informative with respect to the frequency and phase of rainfall associated with long-lived propagating rainfall “episodes”. Similar to findings in tropical northern Africa and tropical northern Australia, there is a strong presence of organized convection, which can propagate zonally hundreds to thousands of km as a coherent sequence of mesoscale convective systems. Convective triggering is often associated with elevated terrain, the Andes, and the La Plata basin region, which is especially rich in moist static energy. The passage of baroclinic waves over the Andes is consistent with eastward propagating clusters of convection, within which westward-propagating systems also reside. These organized convective systems over the La Plata Basin are analyzed with hourly rainfall estimates with CMOPRH method. Rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution were obtained between December 2002 and June 2008. Very few data are missing so it is one of the most complete, longest and highest resolution data sets available to date that allows a comprehensive description of spatial and temporal distribution of convection from its hourly to interannual variability over the region. In this work, diurnal, intra and inter seasonal and interannual cycles are obtained and examined in the light of episodes of organized convection. Daily, monthly and yearly spatial patterns of rainfall accumulation over the La Plata Basin region vary both inter- and intra-seasonally and are forced by underlying dynamic and thermodynamics mechanisms. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall are used to describe the genesis, structure, longevity, phase speed and inferences of the underlying dynamics and thermodynamics of episodes of organized convection. The episodes of organized convection are analyzed in terms of their duration, span, phase speed, starting and ending time, starting and ending longitude, month and year through frequency distribution analysis. Most episodes of organized convection move eastward across the La Plata Basin with variable phase speeds. Basic descriptive statistics indicate that the La Plata eastward propagating average phase speed is 13.0 m·s-1.
文摘Low visibility condition hinders both air traffic and road traffic operations. Accurate forecasting of visibility condition helps aircraft operators and travelers to make better decisions and improve their safety. It is, therefore, essential to investigate and identify the predictor variables that could influence and help predict visibility. The objective of this study is to identify the predictor variables that influence visibility. Four years of surface weather observations, from January 2011 to December 2014, were collected from the weather stations located in and around the state of North Carolina, USA for the model development. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and weighted least squares (WLS) regression models were developed for different visibility and elevation ranges. The results indicate that elevation, cloud cover, and precipitation are negatively associated with the visibility in visibility less than 15,000 m model. The elevation, cloud cover and the presence of water bodies within the vicinity play an important role in the visibility less than 2000 m model. The chances of low visibility condition are higher between six to twelve hours after the rainfall when compared to the first six hours after the rainfall. The results from this study help to understand the influence of predictor variables that should be dealt with to improve the traffic operations and safety concerning the visibility near the airports/road transportation network.
文摘Recent attention has been put into recurring slope lineae (RSL), after the discovery that water is present in them. It is assumed that RSL are due to flowing water. However, even though that might be the case, the general characteristics of RSL as well as their seasonal and spatial distribution in Mars, and their occurrence within craters, suggest that RSL correspond to the weathering of frozen aquifers, which coincides with slope stability processes occurring in impact craters and scree slopes from Earth. In this study, we associated RSL with similar weathering processes occurring on impact craters and hydrogeological processes occurring on Earth (including ice, water, and wind erosion and natural aquifer recharge processes). We were able to create a conceptual model on how RSL develop, why are they found mostly in mid latitudes around craters, why are they present in more frequency in one side of crates in high latitudes, and why are there more RSL in the Martian southern hemisphere. Considering the whole hydrogeological processes occurring in craters that experience RSL, we were able to predict where large quantities of liquid water are most likely to be present in the red planet.
基金This work has been commissioned by the UKRI(EPSRC,NERC,AHRC)funded by RECLAIM Network Plus project(EP/W034034/1,EP/W033984)under its synthesis review seriesThe following authors acknowledge the funding received through their grants:P.K.and L.J.(NE/X002799/1,NE/X002772/1),L.J.(H2020 REGREEN,EU Grant agreement No.821016,2021YFE93100),G.M.L.(FAPESP 2019/08783-0),C.D.F.R.(EP/R017727),L.M.(ARC Grant No.IC220100012),H.G.(RGC Grant No.C5024-21G),M.F.A.and E.D.F.(FAPESP Grant No.2016/18438-0,2022/02365-5),S.J.C.(NSFC Grant No.52225005),R.Y.(NSFC Grant No.52278090),F.W.(NKP Grant No.2020YFC180700),J.E.(NE/X000443/1),and F.C.(NE/M010961/1,NE/V002171/1).The authors thank Andrea Sofia Majjul Fajardo for her contribution to the initial design of certain figures.We also thank the team members of GCARE and its Guildford Living Lab(GLL),as well as the participants in the RECLAIM Network Plus Horizon Scanning Workshop.
文摘The combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change.Yet,the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructure(GBGI),such as parks,wetlands,and engineered greening,which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures.Despite many reviews,the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear.This systematic literature review synthesizes the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits,identifies knowledge gaps,and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximize their benefits.After screening 27,486 papers,202 were reviewed,based on 51 GBGI types categorized under 10 main divisions.Certain GBGI(green walls,parks,street trees)have been well researched for their urban cooling capabilities.However,several other GBGI have received negligible(zoological garden,golf course,estuary)or minimal(private garden,allotment)attention.The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens(5.0±3.5℃),wetlands(4.9±3.2℃),green walls(4.1±4.2℃),street trees(3.8±3.1℃),and vegetated balconies(3.8±2.7℃).Under changing climate conditions(2070–2100)with consideration of RCP8.5,there is a shift in climate subtypes,either within the same climate zone(e.g.,Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa)or across other climate zones(e.g.,Dfb[continental warm-summer humid]to BSk[dry,cold semi-arid]and Cwa[temperate]to Am[tropical]).These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future.Given the importance of multiple services,it is crucial to balance their functionality,cooling performance,and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI.This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritizing effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating,filling research gaps,and promoting community resilience.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality(JQ19031)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(22221004,91844301,and 91544225).
文摘Ambient ozone(O3)was first identified as a key harmful air pollutant in the study of photochemical smog during the 1950s in Los Angeles.Subsequent studies uncovered that surface O3 was not emitted directly,but formed from the reactions of nitrogen oxides(NO_(x))and volatile organic compounds(VOCs)in sunlight.Quantifying the relationship between O3 and its two main precursors,NOx and VOCs,is considered to be the cornerstone for enabling successful mitigation of O3.In the past,a central area for the study and practice of O3 pollution control was Los Angeles and the surrounding area.The ambient O3 concentrations in the area were successfully and continuously reduced from 400 ppb(1 ppb=109 m^(3)/m^(3))to ca.120 ppb due to the joint mitigation of VOC and NOx emissions from 1960 to 2010[1].Nevertheless,O3 pollution still represents one of the most pervasive and stubborn environmental problems in megacities worldwide,with many populous centres regularly breaching WHO 8-hour Interim Targets-1 levels(160 lg/m^(3)),not to mention the updated air quality guideline value of 100 lg/m^(3).The difficulty of O3 pollution control is due to a number of factors,including its non-linear relationship with NOx[2],the difficulty of anthropogenic VOC control[3]and the contributions of biogenic VOCs.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40775013"863" Program of China under Grant No.2006AA06A306+1 种基金the Special Commonweal Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology under Grant No.2008416018the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education under Grant No.20060001025.
文摘The present study investigates the characteristics of turbulent transfer and the conditions for dust emission and transport using the dust concentration and micrometeorological data obtained during dust events occurring in the spring of 2004 over the Hunshandake desert area. The turbulent exchange coefficients and turbulent fluxes of momentum and heat are calculated. The relationships between dust flux, friction velocity, and wind speed are also explored. The results show that thermal turbulence is dominant during daytime of non-dusty days. The dynamic turbulence increases obviously and the sensible heat flux reduces by different degrees during dust events. There is an efficient downward transfer of momentum before duststorm occurrence, and both the dynamic turbulence and the thermal turbulence are important in the surface layer. The dynamic turbulence even exceeds the thermal turbulence during severe duststorm events. The values of dust flux vary in the range of -5 5, -30 30, and -200-300 μg m^-2 s^-1 during non-dusty days, blowing dust, and duststorm events, respectively. A slight upward transport of dust is observed during non-dusty days. The dust flux gradually varies from positive to negative during duststorm periods, which indicates the time evolution of dust events from dust rising to stably suspending and then deposition. The dust flux is found to be proportional to u＊^3. The threshold values of wind speed and friction velocity are about 6 and 0.4 m s^-1, respectively.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under program 4860210the Foundation of Tropical Meteorology, SMA.
文摘The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and 3.5 years quasi-periodic oscillation (named TO hereafter) are exhibited in most of 48 weather stations of China by applying power spectrum analysis to the monthly rainfall data for the period from Jan. 1933 to Dec. 1987. In order to reveal the features of QBO and TO components, another rainfall data set in 160 stations over China for the period from Jan. 1951 to Dec. 1987 was analysed by means of a new method named complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF). The results show that both QBO and TO modes exhibit two propaga- tion ways: one originates in Northeast China, extends southward, passes through North China and reaches the eastern part of Northwest China and the northern part of Southwest China; the other appears over Guangdong and Fujian, then moves northward and westward respectively to the Huanghe-Huaihe Basin and Southwest China. These two paths of oscillation meet over North China and the area between the Changjiang River and the Huanghe River. A significant correlation exists between the interannual oscillation of the rainfall over China and that of the sea surface temperature (SST) at the equator. Although the correlation between the rainfall over China and the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific is rather weak, the correlation between their oscillation component is pronounced.
基金supported as part of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model(E3SM)project,funded by the U.S.Department of Energy,Office of Science,Office of Biological and Environmental Researchsupported by the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program(Grant No.XDA20060102)+1 种基金China MOST Program(Grant No.2018YFC1507701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41775091)。
文摘Changes in monsoon precipitation have profound social and economic impacts as more than two-thirds of the world’s population lives in monsoon regions.Observations show a significant reduction in global land monsoon precipitation during the second half of the 20 th century.Understanding the cause of this change,especially possible anthropogenic origins,is important.Here,we compare observed changes in global land monsoon precipitation during 1948–2005 with those simulated by 5 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-phase 5(CMIP5)under different external forcings.We show that the observed drying trend is consistent with the model simulated response to anthropogenic forcing and to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in particular.We apply the optimal fingerprinting method to quantify anthropogenic influences on precipitation and find that anthropogenic aerosols may have contributed to 102%(62–144%for the 5–95%confidence interval)of the observed decrease in global land monsoon precipitation.A moisture budget analysis indicates that the reduction in precipitation results from reduced vertical moisture advection in response to aerosol forcing.Since much of the monsoon regions,such as India and China,have been experiencing rapid developments with increasing aerosol emissions in the past decedes,our results imply a further reduction in monsoon precipitation in these regions in the future if effective mitigations to reduce aerosol emissions are not deployed.The observed decline of aerosol emission in China since 2006 helps to alleviate the reducing trend of monsoon precipiptaion.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation(NSF)(No.EAR-2035135)。
文摘Coral reefs are in terminal decline.For conservation to be effective,naturally depauperate reefs must be distinguished from those recently degraded by humans.Traditional reef monitoring is time consuming and lacks the longevity to make this distinction.Success in using foraminifera as bioindicators for reef health has hitherto levered their response to nutrients.Because ocean heat waves are the dominant driver of coral bleaching and death,there is compelling motivation to develop new foraminiferal bioindicators that inform on temperature stress over meaningful timescales.This study focuses on identifying which foraminifera respond systematically to the temperature stress that kills corals.Statistical models were used to compare endosymbiont-bearing foraminiferal families,collected along a heat-stress gradient spanning the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia,to live coral cover at the same sites.Results indicate that Amphisteginidae foraminifera and coral cover show a significant decline in abundance as heat stress increases along the transect sites.Furthermore,ocean productivity and salinity,both recognized environmental influences on foraminifera,are shown to be subordinate to temperature in their sway of this ecological patterning.These findings indicate the potential for using foraminifera to develop new indices capable of quantifying long-term thermal impacts on reefs.
