The Western society pays close attention to China’s development,draws supposed commonalities between China and the emerging powers that have competed for international power in history,and uses the"Thucydides Tr...The Western society pays close attention to China’s development,draws supposed commonalities between China and the emerging powers that have competed for international power in history,and uses the"Thucydides Trap"to continuously amplify the"threat"posed by the growth of China’s national strength.This point of view is based on the historical practice of Western countries that take competition as the supreme value and stems from the Western logic that"a strong country will seek hegemony".However,the core fallacy of applying such stereotypes to China’s development lies in the lack of a genuine understanding of China’s cultural traditions and historical practices.The thought of peaceful development is the inherent gene of the Chinese culture.China’s gene for peace refers to the ideological,cultural and historical tradition that has been passed down from generation to generation by the Chinese nation to deal with interpersonal,social and international relations based on the principles of"harmony and peace the most precious","harmony in diversity",and"peace,concord and harmony",including the corresponding beliefs.展开更多
Using the data of 545 meteorological stations in 1961-2015,according to the rainfall intensity classification standard issued by the China Meteorological Administration,the rainfall events were divided into six intens...Using the data of 545 meteorological stations in 1961-2015,according to the rainfall intensity classification standard issued by the China Meteorological Administration,the rainfall events were divided into six intensities: light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,torrential rain,downpour and heavy downpour. The latter three were recorded as total torrential rain,and all the six were recorded as the total rainfall. In terms of the interannual rainfall and rainy days,the whole China was regarded as an object. Firstly,the annual rainfall and rainy day of different intensity of rainfalls of 545 stations in 1961-2015 were calculated. Then,the variation trend of rainfall and rainy days was calculated. Finally,the variation trend of contribution of different intensity of rainfalls and rainy days to total rainfall and rainy days were diagnosed. It obtained the following results.( i) The light rain in China was declining from 1961 to 2015,and the trend values of light rain and rainy days were-411. 44 mm/yr and-136. 99 d/yr,respectively. Heavy rain and total heavy rainfall showed an increasing trend,with rainfall and rainy day trends of 127. 02 and 463. 94 mm/yr and 7. 93 and 4. 24 d/yr,respectively. The total rainfall showed a ' hockey' phenomenon of ' first rise,then decline',and the trend values of rainfall and rainy days were 204. 29 mm/yr and-95. 81 d/yr,respectively. Except the northern region,the rainfall in most parts of China was dominated by increasing trends and was moving towards extremes.( ii) In terms of rainfall contribution rate,the contribution of light rain to total rainfall showed a declining trend,and the trend values of rainfall and rainy day contribution were both-0. 11%/yr. The contribution of other intensity rainfalls to total rainfall showed an increasing trend. The contribution of torrential rain to the total torrential rain showed a declining trend. The contribution trends of rainfall and rainy days were-0. 06% and-0. 03%/yr,respectively. The contribution of downpour and heavy downpour to total torrential rain showed an increasing trend,indicating the intensity of torrential rain in China is increasing. Although the contribution rate of different intensity of rainfalls to total rainfall was different in different areas of China,the contribution rate of heavy rainfall to total rainfall in most areas showed an increasing trend.( iii) Through comparing the rainfall and rainy days of six different intensity of rainfalls,it can be found that China’s heavy rainfall events are increasing and the rainfall intensity is developing towards extremes.展开更多
Based on the daily precipitation data of 545 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China were di...Based on the daily precipitation data of 545 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China were diagnosed from three aspects: climatic characteristics, variation trend and interannual variation. The results showed that:(1) Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China from 1961 to 2016 had similar spatial characteristics in corresponding months. From January to July, the high-value areas of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast coast to northwest inland, but mainly distributed in the east area of Hu Huanyong Line. From August to December, it shrank from northwest to southeast coastal areas. Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days were less distributed in different months in the west area of Hu Huanyong Line;(2) From 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China were basically consistent with that of rainy days. May to August was the most significant month for the variation trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in China. It mainly distributed in the southeast monsoon area, and was mainly increasing trend. The trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in northwest China changed slightly in different months;(3) The interannual variability of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China from 1961 to 2016 was similar to that of rainy days. The fluctuation characteristics from April to October were larger in the northern region. The southern region fluctuated greatly from November to December in January to March. With the development of the month, the high-value areas with large daily fluctuations of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast to northwest, northeast and southwest, and the fluctuations in southeast tended to decrease, then shrank from northwest, northeast and southwest to southeast, with the increasing fluctuations in southeast. The study has certain reference significance for flood control and disaster reduction and water resources planning and utilization.展开更多
In the context of global warming,there are more frequent heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms,which leads to growingly severe rainstorm disasters.In previous studies,heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainsto...In the context of global warming,there are more frequent heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms,which leads to growingly severe rainstorm disasters.In previous studies,heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms were classified into rainstorms so that it was impossible to fully grasp the spatiotemporal pattern of heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms.Therefore,based on the daily precipitation data of 659 meteorological stations in China,this study calculated the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of rainstorms,heavy rainstorms,and extraordinary rainstorms in 1951–2010,and analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of rainstorms,heavy rainstorms,and extraordinary rainstorms in China.The results showed that: In terms of the proportion to the total rainstorms,rainstorms were the largest,followed by heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms;in terms of time,the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of interdecadal rainstorms and heavy rainstorms in China show a dynamic increase trend;in terms of space,only the rainfall amount and rainy days had an expansion trend,while the rainfall intensity did not change much.Temporally,the rainfall amount and the rain day of interdecadal extraordinary rainstorms were characterized by “increase—decline—increase”,while their rain intensity was characterized by “decline-increase-decline”.Spatially,there was no significant change in the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of extraordinary rainstorms.In short,rainstorms in China were developing towards extremes,which might be a result of combination of human factors and natural factors.展开更多
Based on data of hail days at 2 481 stations during 1961-2016,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and periodic variation of gale days in China and seven geographical regions were analyzed by using a ...Based on data of hail days at 2 481 stations during 1961-2016,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and periodic variation of gale days in China and seven geographical regions were analyzed by using a variety of statistical methods. The results showed that: in time,the gale days in China and the seven geographical areas all showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2016. In the Tibet( Southeast China and Southwest China) region,the annual number of single-station gale days was the most( least),but the decrease ratio was the least( most). In the significance oscillation period,it was 14 years in the whole country,60 years in Northeastern China,Northern China and east part of Northwestern China,7,14 and 60 years in the west of Northwestern China,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,7 and 60 years in the Tibet region. The mutation of gale days generally occurred in 1991,1993,1989,1997,1986,1997,1992 and 1984 in the whole country,Northeastern China,Northern China,east part of Northwestern China,west part of Northwestern China,Tibet,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,but only the east of Northwestern China and Tibet region passed 0. 05 of significance test. In space,the annual average gale days showed the pattern of southeast low and northwest high in China from 1961 to 2016. The annual average gale days were more abundant in the central and western Tibet,the southern Qinghai,eastern Xinjiang,western Sichuan,northern Inner Mongolia and northern Gansu. These regions were dominated by positive anomaly in the 1970 s and the 1980 s,but negative in other decades. Annual gale days in most regions of China showed a decreasing trend during 1961-2016,and fluctuation presented high in east region and low in west region beside " Hu Huanyong line".展开更多
Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under th...Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc.;brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area;become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk;and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China. When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours, that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short- duration heavy rainfall, while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall, on the spatial distribution, total rainfall, total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime, long-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "high in southeast-low in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. On the contrary, the contribution of short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "low in southeast-high in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. The contribution trend of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "increasing-mosaic with increasing and decreasing-increasing" spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. On the contrary, the contribution trend of long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed mosaic with increasing and increasing in the northeast, slightly decreasing in the southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. There was a climate transition zone from northeast to southwest, which was essentially coincident with the arid zone. The results suggested that the precipitation in China was changing to extremely accompanied by short-duration storm increased significantly. Chinese heavy rainfall especially the increase of short-duration heavy rainfall suggests that human activity is likely to be triggered an increasing in extreme precipitation.展开更多
In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society.Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the internatio...In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society.Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the international climate negotiations.For solar radiation management with the most controversy in climate engineering method,based on two scenarios of climate engineering (G4) and non climate engineering (RCP4.5) of BNU-ESM model,95% and 99% percentiles of daily rainfall data during 2010-2099 were taken as thresholds of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall events.The data of over threshold sampling (POT) were fitted by Weibull distribution to diagnose the heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in 10,20,50 and 100 years of return period.The results showed that:in two scenarios,strength of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall enhanced with return period increased,and they showed a southeast high-northwest low spatial characteristics.Climate engineering,in general,contributes to the increase in heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in China,as well as spatial heterogeneity,which represents the suppression of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in parts of the country.This research is of great significance for the future global climate control and regional climate adaptation.展开更多
With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of cli...With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of climate change have brought great challenges to aviation safety.Starting with the rapid development of civil aviation in China,based on the trend of increasing the risk of aviation security and the risk of economic loss under the warming background,the effect of climate change on aviation safety development was analyzed from seven aspects: extreme weather and climate events affecting aviation safety,the number of takeoff limit days,fog and haze (low visibility) affecting aviation safety,flight time increasing,takeoff condition of high plateau airport changing,aircraft corrosion and clear-air turbulence,and the possible impact of the development of aviation industry on climate change was analyzed.Finally,based on the mutual influence of climate change and aviation industry,five policy suggestions were proposed,including the scientific planning of the new airport layout,the construction of the aviation meteorological data sharing platform,the comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the aviation,the development of the aeronautical weather index insurance and new risk response training for aviation staff under the background of climate change.This study has a reference value for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate change and the development of aviation safety in China.展开更多
Climate change in the past one hundred years has brought important influence to the natural ecosystem and social-economic system of the world and China.The impact of future climate change is also long-term and huge,an...Climate change in the past one hundred years has brought important influence to the natural ecosystem and social-economic system of the world and China.The impact of future climate change is also long-term and huge,and many effects are negative or adverse.Therefore,from now on we must take measures adapting to climate change to overcome the adverse effects of climate change on social-economic-ecological system.In this paper,starting from the urgency of integrated climate change risk governance,the risk of natural disasters intensifying caused by climate change is briefly described,and engineering and non engineering measures of the integrated climate change risk governance in China's high risk region are proposed,as well as recommendations on integrated risk governance in the eastern,middle and western China.展开更多
Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering(G4 test)and non-climate engineering(RCP4.5...Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering(G4 test)and non-climate engineering(RCP4.5),the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs(2020 to 2069)and after the implementation of those programs(2070 to 2099)were analyzed using the Weibull Distribution Theory.The results are as follows.(1)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering has not fundamentally changed the spatial variation of the intensity of extreme hightemperature events in different recurring periods in China.It was found that in both scenarios,the extreme hightemperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the QinghaiTibet Plateau,and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region.(2)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering in the two study periods could help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China,and the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation.(3)The comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggests that there would be no strong rebounding of extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs.Moreover,the mitigation effect of extreme high-temperature intensity during the implementation of climate engineering is significantly higher than that after the completion of climate engineering.(4)According to the comparison between the average temperature changes in China before and after the implementation of the climate project,the average temperature in China has been reduced by at least 1.25℃,which effectively alleviates global warming and is conducive to the realization of the 1.5℃temperature control target of the Paris Agreement.展开更多
"The Belt and Road Initiative"is major decision proposed by the CPC Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core co-ordinating the domestic and international overall situations,and concerns peaceful..."The Belt and Road Initiative"is major decision proposed by the CPC Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core co-ordinating the domestic and international overall situations,and concerns peaceful rise of China and extension of the strategic opportunity period of modernization construction.It needs multi-faceted safeguards to successfully impel"the Belt and Road Initiative",in which disaster risk identification and its effective prevention and control are indispensable links.By integrating geogeographic and atmospheric environmental factors,countries along"the Belt and Road Initiative"belong to frequent occurrence region of major natural disasters.It restricts not only the economic and social development of relevant countries but also implementation effect of"the Belt and Road Initiative"construction,and is also related to the success or failure of Chinese enterprises going out to a certain extent.It should enhance disaster prevention and mitigation and ensure safety of major infrastructure construction related to interconnection of"the Belt and Road Initiative"by disaster identification and prevention,which is the key of successfully impelling strategy implementation and major need for guaranteeing the people s livelihood of the countries along the line.The work of disaster prevention and mitigation in the countries along the line is generally weak,and it is urgent to raise the level of disaster prevention as a whole by promoting the disaster prevention and mitigation cooperation in the"the Belt and Road Initiative"area;improve the coverage and level of disaster risk insurance;enhance construction in monitoring and early warning capability of natural disaster;strengthen structural adjustment of economy,industry and land use responding to climate change risks;establish a comprehensive disaster reduction forum of"the Belt and Road Initiative",and contain relevant content in"the Belt and Road Initiative"series of high-end forum topics.展开更多
In this study, based on the data on the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days of 1,638 stations from 1961 to 2016, a variety of mathematical statistics methods were used to analyze the s...In this study, based on the data on the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days of 1,638 stations from 1961 to 2016, a variety of mathematical statistics methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of waterlogging events in eastern China. The results showed that:① In terms of time, the annual frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China in 1961–2016 showed an increasing trend despite of fluctuations. In the interdecadal changes, the highest frequency of waterlogging events and the greatest number of waterlogging days occurred in the 1990s, and from the 1960s to the 1980s, the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China showed a decreasing trend. There were 6-year and 30-year periodic variations in the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China, and mutations occurred in 1991.② In terms of space, from 1961 to 2016, the areas with high frequency of waterlogging events in various years in eastern China were mainly South China, western and southern Yunnan, northern Jiangsu, southern Zhejiang, northern Fujian, junction areas between Hunan and Chongqing, northern Sichuan, and eastern Liaoning.③ In the spatial distribution of change trends and fluctuation characteristics, the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China increased significantly in the southeastern coastal areas from 1961 to 2016, and the fluctuations of the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China from 1961 to 2016 presented a spatial variation pattern of low in the southwest and high in the northwest.展开更多
Severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention. The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. The s...Severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention. The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. The study of daily torrential rain observations from 659 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2010 shows that rapid urbanization may have triggered a significant increase in heavy rains in China. It reached following conclusions: China’s interdecadal heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity increased significantly,with an increase of 68. 71%,60. 15% and 11. 52%,respectively. The increase in the number of stations was 84. 22%,84. 22% and 54. 48%,respectively. It showed time change of " rapid-slow-rapid increase" and spatial change of gradual increase from southeastern coast to central China,southwest,north China,and northeastern regions. Rapid urbanization factors,including secondary industry output( GDP2),urban population ratio( UP),annual average haze days( HD),are likely to be the main causes of the increase in heavy rains in China. Their explanations of the variance of heavy rainfall amount( HRA),rainy day( RD) and rain intensity( RI) in China reached 61. 54%,58. 48% and 65. 54%,respectively,of which only the explanation of variance of heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity was as high as 25. 93%,22. 98%and 26. 64%,respectively. However,explanation of variance of climatic factors including WPSH( West Pacific Subtropical High),ENSO( El Ni1 o-Southern Oscillation) AMO( Atlantic Interdecadal Oscillation),and AAO( Antarctic Oscillation) was only 24. 30%,26. 23%,and 21. 92%,respectively. Compared with the rapid urbanization forcing factor,the impact of these climatic factors was only one third of the former. The panel data of China’s county-level total population and annual average of visibility days were significantly correlated with China’s interdecadal heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity. Their spatial correlation coefficient increased gradually from 1951-1960 to 2001-2010,that is,the total population of the county level increased from 0. 35,0. 36,and 0. 40 to 0. 54,0. 55,and 0. 58,respectively.The annual average of visibility days increased from 0. 36,0. 38,and 0. 48 to 0. 55. 0. 57,0. 58,further indicating that rapid urbanization triggered a significant increase in interdecadal large-area heavy rains in China.展开更多
The Report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has taken the Belt and Road Initiative and the implementation of the the Belt and Road Initiative as essential parts of China’s economic const...The Report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has taken the Belt and Road Initiative and the implementation of the the Belt and Road Initiative as essential parts of China’s economic construction and multi-faceted diplomatic layout. As an important navigation channel for the ' 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road',the Arctic Route has unlimited development prospects in scientific research,transportation,resources,tourism,etc. Therefore,it is feasible to take this opportunity to adhere to the three policy concepts of respect,cooperation and mutual benefit,to deepen political,economic,trade and scientific and technological cooperation with the Arctic countries and interested countries. Starting from the joint creation of the ' Ice Silk Road' between China and Russia,this paper analyzed the enormous challenges faced by traditional routes. The Arctic Route has the obvious advantages and the values of economy,politics,resources,shipping and scientific research. The development of Arctic Route faces threats and limitations of substrate data,development technologies,and extreme marine meteorological disasters. Therefore,this paper believes that the development and construction of the Arctic Route with the aid of meteorology should be fully integrated into the construction of Belt and Road Initiative,strengthen the research on the geographical and climatic environment of the Arctic Ocean,deepen the monitoring of climate services and climate change in the Arctic Ocean,and create a safe Arctic Route. Besides,it is necessary to vigorously enhance the international cooperation and exchanges in the research of the Arctic Ocean,and build a large-scale scientific research plan with the aid of the joint creation of ' Ice Silk Road' by China and Russia. Besides,it is recommended to develop a variety of meteorological observation methods to enhance the early warning capability of disaster prevention and mitigation. In particular,it is recommended to vigorously develop the offshore meteorological observation capability of the ' Ice Silk Road',and continuously meet the needs of meteorological services and disaster prevention and mitigation for the construction of Belt and Road Initiative. In addition,it is necessary to comprehensively build a Chinese meteorological polar discipline system to meet the future demands of the Arctic Route.展开更多
Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of fo...Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China were analyzed by various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that in time,the days of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China decreased,and the hail and thunderstorm days were characterized by " increasing firstly and then decreasing" from 1961 to 2016. The hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in China had oscillation cycles of 3-5,2-3,1-2 and 1-4 a respectively,and the hail and thunderstorm days changed suddenly in 2002 and 1992 respectively. In space,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Sichuan were the highvalue distribution areas of hail,gale and thunderstorm days. The high-value distribution areas of thunderstorm days were also distributed to the south of the Yangtze River. South China and its southwestern regions at the same latitude were the high-value distribution areas of lightning days. In terms of trend,the hail days in China showed a decreasing trend mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The gale days in China decreased in the east,was unchanged in the central region,and increased and decreased alternately in the west. The thunderstorm days in China increased in Tibet,North China,Chongqing,Zhejiang and northwestern Heilongjiang. The lightning days in China decreased obviously to the south of the Yangtze River. In terms of the fluctuation,the hail days fluctuated greatly in the southeast. The gale days fluctuated greatly to the east of Hu Huanyong line. The thunderstorms days in China fluctuated greatly in the northwest and slightly in the southeast. In addition to the small fluctuation in northern Xinjiang and South China,the lightning days fluctuated greatly in other regions of China.展开更多
Global climate change greatly impedes the sustainable development of human society.And severe consequences could arise unless effective measures are taken to prevent them under the condition that we have a clear under...Global climate change greatly impedes the sustainable development of human society.And severe consequences could arise unless effective measures are taken to prevent them under the condition that we have a clear understanding of the trend of climate change.Currently,the most practical way to predict trend of climate change is GCM.However,GCM is unavailable in predicting detailed regional climate due to the lack of regional information and a relatively low spatial resolution of GCM.Such shortcoming is supplemented by the methods of downscaling which fall into three types:dynamical downscaling,statistical downscaling and the combination of statistical and dynamic downscaling.This paper aims at explaining in detail the methods of downscaling mentioned above and comparing their advantages and disadvantages in the hope of offering a reference for global climate prediction.展开更多
Sauna weather with high temperature, high humidity and long standby time has become one of the main meteorological hazards faced by urban residents. Based on the daily maximum temperature and relative humidity dataset...Sauna weather with high temperature, high humidity and long standby time has become one of the main meteorological hazards faced by urban residents. Based on the daily maximum temperature and relative humidity datasets of 545 meteorological observation stations in China from 1961 to 2017, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of sauna days with different intensities in China were studied from three aspects: climatic state, trend and fluctuation characteristics, using the standard of sauna days defined by the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration. The results showed that: firstly, the spatial pattern of sauna days with different intensities in China was high in southeast China and low in northwest China from 1961 to 2017, and the spatial pattern of sauna days with the same intensity in different research periods had little difference, which was in good agreement with the spatial pattern of sauna days with corresponding intensities in the whole research period. With the increase of intensity, the sauna days in China decreases gradually. Secondly, the trend of sauna days with different intensities in China was bounded by Hu Huanyong Line from 1961 to 2017, showing a pattern of increasing or decreasing mosaic in the southeast China and mainly decreasing trend, while the spatial differentiation pattern in the northwest China changed little. The trend of sauna days with different intensities in China increased significantly in 1991-2017 compared with 1961-1990. Thirdly, the fluctuation of sauna days with different intensities in China was bounded by Hu Huanyong Line, showing a spatial pattern of large fluctuations in the southeast China and small fluctuations in the northwest China. And the fluctuation of sauna days and heavy sauna days showed obvious threeblock distribution characteristics. The fluctuation characteristics of sauna days with different intensities in China from 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2017 were in good agreement with the whole research period. The fluctuation difference before and after 1990 mainly concentrated in the vicinity of Hu Huanyong Line and its southeast area, and the fluctuation differences increased mainly, indicating that the variation of sauna days with different intensities in the southeast China increased from 1991 to 2017.展开更多
In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which ...In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which are located in Ansai County, north Shaanxi Province. The comparison of computation precision between variable DEM resolutions showed that NCSL was superior to SAC entirely. And the results were best when the DEM resolutions were 5 and 10 m. Besides, the results of slope length factor were nearly the same under the two conditions. So DEM of 10 m resolution can be used to extract slope length.展开更多
Climate change has become one of the key issues affecting global society and economic development,and it is related to the sustainable development of mankind and the earth’s ecological system.Firstly,this research be...Climate change has become one of the key issues affecting global society and economic development,and it is related to the sustainable development of mankind and the earth’s ecological system.Firstly,this research begins with the important international conferences and agreements on Global Climate Governance,and analyzes the recent progress of the Paris Agreement,the Marrakech climate conference and the major progress of China&US climate cooperation and China’s contribution.Secondly,from the perspective of China’s adaptation and response to climate change,the main progress of climate change in China is reviewed from a multi-level perspective.The main scientific and technological progress and achievements in China’s response to climate change have been tracked.Finally,from the environmental risk areas,the future risks of climate change are predicted from six aspects,to contribute to the scientific and technological support program for climate change governance.展开更多
This article presents a comprehensive review of China's policy system for the management of natural hazard-induced disasters from 1949 to 2016 through a quantitative bibliometric analysis of 5472 policy documents ...This article presents a comprehensive review of China's policy system for the management of natural hazard-induced disasters from 1949 to 2016 through a quantitative bibliometric analysis of 5472 policy documents on such disasters. It identifies four phases of China's evolving disaster management system, which focused on agriculture, economic development, government and professional capacity building, and disaster governance,respectively. Characteristics of policies and contributing factors of policy change in each of the four phases are discussed in depth. This article provides a quantitative foundation for understanding the dynamic policy change of the disaster management system in China with a particular emphasis on the governance capacity and may serve as a basis for exploring the potential pathways of transformation according to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.展开更多
文摘The Western society pays close attention to China’s development,draws supposed commonalities between China and the emerging powers that have competed for international power in history,and uses the"Thucydides Trap"to continuously amplify the"threat"posed by the growth of China’s national strength.This point of view is based on the historical practice of Western countries that take competition as the supreme value and stems from the Western logic that"a strong country will seek hegemony".However,the core fallacy of applying such stereotypes to China’s development lies in the lack of a genuine understanding of China’s cultural traditions and historical practices.The thought of peaceful development is the inherent gene of the Chinese culture.China’s gene for peace refers to the ideological,cultural and historical tradition that has been passed down from generation to generation by the Chinese nation to deal with interpersonal,social and international relations based on the principles of"harmony and peace the most precious","harmony in diversity",and"peace,concord and harmony",including the corresponding beliefs.
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114+1 种基金 2019M650756)Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Using the data of 545 meteorological stations in 1961-2015,according to the rainfall intensity classification standard issued by the China Meteorological Administration,the rainfall events were divided into six intensities: light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,torrential rain,downpour and heavy downpour. The latter three were recorded as total torrential rain,and all the six were recorded as the total rainfall. In terms of the interannual rainfall and rainy days,the whole China was regarded as an object. Firstly,the annual rainfall and rainy day of different intensity of rainfalls of 545 stations in 1961-2015 were calculated. Then,the variation trend of rainfall and rainy days was calculated. Finally,the variation trend of contribution of different intensity of rainfalls and rainy days to total rainfall and rainy days were diagnosed. It obtained the following results.( i) The light rain in China was declining from 1961 to 2015,and the trend values of light rain and rainy days were-411. 44 mm/yr and-136. 99 d/yr,respectively. Heavy rain and total heavy rainfall showed an increasing trend,with rainfall and rainy day trends of 127. 02 and 463. 94 mm/yr and 7. 93 and 4. 24 d/yr,respectively. The total rainfall showed a ' hockey' phenomenon of ' first rise,then decline',and the trend values of rainfall and rainy days were 204. 29 mm/yr and-95. 81 d/yr,respectively. Except the northern region,the rainfall in most parts of China was dominated by increasing trends and was moving towards extremes.( ii) In terms of rainfall contribution rate,the contribution of light rain to total rainfall showed a declining trend,and the trend values of rainfall and rainy day contribution were both-0. 11%/yr. The contribution of other intensity rainfalls to total rainfall showed an increasing trend. The contribution of torrential rain to the total torrential rain showed a declining trend. The contribution trends of rainfall and rainy days were-0. 06% and-0. 03%/yr,respectively. The contribution of downpour and heavy downpour to total torrential rain showed an increasing trend,indicating the intensity of torrential rain in China is increasing. Although the contribution rate of different intensity of rainfalls to total rainfall was different in different areas of China,the contribution rate of heavy rainfall to total rainfall in most areas showed an increasing trend.( iii) Through comparing the rainfall and rainy days of six different intensity of rainfalls,it can be found that China’s heavy rainfall events are increasing and the rainfall intensity is developing towards extremes.
基金Sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064 71790611)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114 2019M650756)Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Based on the daily precipitation data of 545 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China were diagnosed from three aspects: climatic characteristics, variation trend and interannual variation. The results showed that:(1) Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in different months of China from 1961 to 2016 had similar spatial characteristics in corresponding months. From January to July, the high-value areas of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast coast to northwest inland, but mainly distributed in the east area of Hu Huanyong Line. From August to December, it shrank from northwest to southeast coastal areas. Rainstorm rainfall and rainy days were less distributed in different months in the west area of Hu Huanyong Line;(2) From 1961 to 2016, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China were basically consistent with that of rainy days. May to August was the most significant month for the variation trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in China. It mainly distributed in the southeast monsoon area, and was mainly increasing trend. The trend of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days in northwest China changed slightly in different months;(3) The interannual variability of rainstorm rainfall in different months in China from 1961 to 2016 was similar to that of rainy days. The fluctuation characteristics from April to October were larger in the northern region. The southern region fluctuated greatly from November to December in January to March. With the development of the month, the high-value areas with large daily fluctuations of rainstorm rainfall and rainy days gradually expanded from southeast to northwest, northeast and southwest, and the fluctuations in southeast tended to decrease, then shrank from northwest, northeast and southwest to southeast, with the increasing fluctuations in southeast. The study has certain reference significance for flood control and disaster reduction and water resources planning and utilization.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Fund(41801064,71790611)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘In the context of global warming,there are more frequent heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms,which leads to growingly severe rainstorm disasters.In previous studies,heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms were classified into rainstorms so that it was impossible to fully grasp the spatiotemporal pattern of heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms.Therefore,based on the daily precipitation data of 659 meteorological stations in China,this study calculated the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of rainstorms,heavy rainstorms,and extraordinary rainstorms in 1951–2010,and analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of rainstorms,heavy rainstorms,and extraordinary rainstorms in China.The results showed that: In terms of the proportion to the total rainstorms,rainstorms were the largest,followed by heavy rainstorms and extraordinary rainstorms;in terms of time,the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of interdecadal rainstorms and heavy rainstorms in China show a dynamic increase trend;in terms of space,only the rainfall amount and rainy days had an expansion trend,while the rainfall intensity did not change much.Temporally,the rainfall amount and the rain day of interdecadal extraordinary rainstorms were characterized by “increase—decline—increase”,while their rain intensity was characterized by “decline-increase-decline”.Spatially,there was no significant change in the rainfall amount,the rain day,and the rainfall intensity of extraordinary rainstorms.In short,rainstorms in China were developing towards extremes,which might be a result of combination of human factors and natural factors.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,71790611)the Climate Change Project of China Meteorological Administration(CCSF201843,CCSF201844)the Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Based on data of hail days at 2 481 stations during 1961-2016,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and periodic variation of gale days in China and seven geographical regions were analyzed by using a variety of statistical methods. The results showed that: in time,the gale days in China and the seven geographical areas all showed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2016. In the Tibet( Southeast China and Southwest China) region,the annual number of single-station gale days was the most( least),but the decrease ratio was the least( most). In the significance oscillation period,it was 14 years in the whole country,60 years in Northeastern China,Northern China and east part of Northwestern China,7,14 and 60 years in the west of Northwestern China,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,7 and 60 years in the Tibet region. The mutation of gale days generally occurred in 1991,1993,1989,1997,1986,1997,1992 and 1984 in the whole country,Northeastern China,Northern China,east part of Northwestern China,west part of Northwestern China,Tibet,Southwestern China and Southeastern China,but only the east of Northwestern China and Tibet region passed 0. 05 of significance test. In space,the annual average gale days showed the pattern of southeast low and northwest high in China from 1961 to 2016. The annual average gale days were more abundant in the central and western Tibet,the southern Qinghai,eastern Xinjiang,western Sichuan,northern Inner Mongolia and northern Gansu. These regions were dominated by positive anomaly in the 1970 s and the 1980 s,but negative in other decades. Annual gale days in most regions of China showed a decreasing trend during 1961-2016,and fluctuation presented high in east region and low in west region beside " Hu Huanyong line".
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Fund(41801064)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc.;brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area;become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk;and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China. When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours, that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short- duration heavy rainfall, while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall, on the spatial distribution, total rainfall, total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime, long-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "high in southeast-low in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. On the contrary, the contribution of short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "low in southeast-high in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. The contribution trend of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "increasing-mosaic with increasing and decreasing-increasing" spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. On the contrary, the contribution trend of long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed mosaic with increasing and increasing in the northeast, slightly decreasing in the southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. There was a climate transition zone from northeast to southwest, which was essentially coincident with the arid zone. The results suggested that the precipitation in China was changing to extremely accompanied by short-duration storm increased significantly. Chinese heavy rainfall especially the increase of short-duration heavy rainfall suggests that human activity is likely to be triggered an increasing in extreme precipitation.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2018YFC0806900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,71790611)the Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization,climate governance has become one of the unavoidable challenges of human society.Therefore,climate engineering is increasingly mentioned in the international climate negotiations.For solar radiation management with the most controversy in climate engineering method,based on two scenarios of climate engineering (G4) and non climate engineering (RCP4.5) of BNU-ESM model,95% and 99% percentiles of daily rainfall data during 2010-2099 were taken as thresholds of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall events.The data of over threshold sampling (POT) were fitted by Weibull distribution to diagnose the heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in 10,20,50 and 100 years of return period.The results showed that:in two scenarios,strength of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall enhanced with return period increased,and they showed a southeast high-northwest low spatial characteristics.Climate engineering,in general,contributes to the increase in heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in China,as well as spatial heterogeneity,which represents the suppression of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall in parts of the country.This research is of great significance for the future global climate control and regional climate adaptation.
基金Supported by the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)National Natural Science Fund(71790611,41801064)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of climate change have brought great challenges to aviation safety.Starting with the rapid development of civil aviation in China,based on the trend of increasing the risk of aviation security and the risk of economic loss under the warming background,the effect of climate change on aviation safety development was analyzed from seven aspects: extreme weather and climate events affecting aviation safety,the number of takeoff limit days,fog and haze (low visibility) affecting aviation safety,flight time increasing,takeoff condition of high plateau airport changing,aircraft corrosion and clear-air turbulence,and the possible impact of the development of aviation industry on climate change was analyzed.Finally,based on the mutual influence of climate change and aviation industry,five policy suggestions were proposed,including the scientific planning of the new airport layout,the construction of the aviation meteorological data sharing platform,the comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the aviation,the development of the aeronautical weather index insurance and new risk response training for aviation staff under the background of climate change.This study has a reference value for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate change and the development of aviation safety in China.
基金Supported by the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)Beijing Social Science Foundation Project(19JDGLA008)
文摘Climate change in the past one hundred years has brought important influence to the natural ecosystem and social-economic system of the world and China.The impact of future climate change is also long-term and huge,and many effects are negative or adverse.Therefore,from now on we must take measures adapting to climate change to overcome the adverse effects of climate change on social-economic-ecological system.In this paper,starting from the urgency of integrated climate change risk governance,the risk of natural disasters intensifying caused by climate change is briefly described,and engineering and non engineering measures of the integrated climate change risk governance in China's high risk region are proposed,as well as recommendations on integrated risk governance in the eastern,middle and western China.
基金Beijing Social Science(19JDGLA008)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,41701103,71790611)+1 种基金Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)
文摘Based on the daily maximum temperature data and average temperature data prediction for the period ranging from 2020 to 2099 under the scenario of BNU-ESM climate engineering(G4 test)and non-climate engineering(RCP4.5),the regional differences in the extreme high-temperature intensities in China during the implementation of climate engineering programs(2020 to 2069)and after the implementation of those programs(2070 to 2099)were analyzed using the Weibull Distribution Theory.The results are as follows.(1)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering has not fundamentally changed the spatial variation of the intensity of extreme hightemperature events in different recurring periods in China.It was found that in both scenarios,the extreme hightemperature intensities were characterized by the spatial differentiations of low-temperature intensities on the QinghaiTibet Plateau,and high-temperature intensities in the eastern and northwestern region.(2)The comparison of the two scenarios shows that climate engineering in the two study periods could help mitigate the extreme high-temperature intensities with different recurrence periods in China,and the mitigation effects during the implementation period would be significantly higher than those after the implementation.(3)The comparison between the periods ranging from 2020 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099 under the proposed climate engineering scenarios suggests that there would be no strong rebounding of extreme high-temperatures following the implementation of climate engineering programs.Moreover,the mitigation effect of extreme high-temperature intensity during the implementation of climate engineering is significantly higher than that after the completion of climate engineering.(4)According to the comparison between the average temperature changes in China before and after the implementation of the climate project,the average temperature in China has been reduced by at least 1.25℃,which effectively alleviates global warming and is conducive to the realization of the 1.5℃temperature control target of the Paris Agreement.
基金Supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)the National Natural Science Fund(41801064)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘"The Belt and Road Initiative"is major decision proposed by the CPC Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core co-ordinating the domestic and international overall situations,and concerns peaceful rise of China and extension of the strategic opportunity period of modernization construction.It needs multi-faceted safeguards to successfully impel"the Belt and Road Initiative",in which disaster risk identification and its effective prevention and control are indispensable links.By integrating geogeographic and atmospheric environmental factors,countries along"the Belt and Road Initiative"belong to frequent occurrence region of major natural disasters.It restricts not only the economic and social development of relevant countries but also implementation effect of"the Belt and Road Initiative"construction,and is also related to the success or failure of Chinese enterprises going out to a certain extent.It should enhance disaster prevention and mitigation and ensure safety of major infrastructure construction related to interconnection of"the Belt and Road Initiative"by disaster identification and prevention,which is the key of successfully impelling strategy implementation and major need for guaranteeing the people s livelihood of the countries along the line.The work of disaster prevention and mitigation in the countries along the line is generally weak,and it is urgent to raise the level of disaster prevention as a whole by promoting the disaster prevention and mitigation cooperation in the"the Belt and Road Initiative"area;improve the coverage and level of disaster risk insurance;enhance construction in monitoring and early warning capability of natural disaster;strengthen structural adjustment of economy,industry and land use responding to climate change risks;establish a comprehensive disaster reduction forum of"the Belt and Road Initiative",and contain relevant content in"the Belt and Road Initiative"series of high-end forum topics.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Fund(41801064,71790611)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019 T120114,2019M650756)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘In this study, based on the data on the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days of 1,638 stations from 1961 to 2016, a variety of mathematical statistics methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of waterlogging events in eastern China. The results showed that:① In terms of time, the annual frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China in 1961–2016 showed an increasing trend despite of fluctuations. In the interdecadal changes, the highest frequency of waterlogging events and the greatest number of waterlogging days occurred in the 1990s, and from the 1960s to the 1980s, the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China showed a decreasing trend. There were 6-year and 30-year periodic variations in the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China, and mutations occurred in 1991.② In terms of space, from 1961 to 2016, the areas with high frequency of waterlogging events in various years in eastern China were mainly South China, western and southern Yunnan, northern Jiangsu, southern Zhejiang, northern Fujian, junction areas between Hunan and Chongqing, northern Sichuan, and eastern Liaoning.③ In the spatial distribution of change trends and fluctuation characteristics, the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China increased significantly in the southeastern coastal areas from 1961 to 2016, and the fluctuations of the frequency of waterlogging events and the number of waterlogging days in eastern China from 1961 to 2016 presented a spatial variation pattern of low in the southwest and high in the northwest.
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114+1 种基金2019M650756)Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention. The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. The study of daily torrential rain observations from 659 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2010 shows that rapid urbanization may have triggered a significant increase in heavy rains in China. It reached following conclusions: China’s interdecadal heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity increased significantly,with an increase of 68. 71%,60. 15% and 11. 52%,respectively. The increase in the number of stations was 84. 22%,84. 22% and 54. 48%,respectively. It showed time change of " rapid-slow-rapid increase" and spatial change of gradual increase from southeastern coast to central China,southwest,north China,and northeastern regions. Rapid urbanization factors,including secondary industry output( GDP2),urban population ratio( UP),annual average haze days( HD),are likely to be the main causes of the increase in heavy rains in China. Their explanations of the variance of heavy rainfall amount( HRA),rainy day( RD) and rain intensity( RI) in China reached 61. 54%,58. 48% and 65. 54%,respectively,of which only the explanation of variance of heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity was as high as 25. 93%,22. 98%and 26. 64%,respectively. However,explanation of variance of climatic factors including WPSH( West Pacific Subtropical High),ENSO( El Ni1 o-Southern Oscillation) AMO( Atlantic Interdecadal Oscillation),and AAO( Antarctic Oscillation) was only 24. 30%,26. 23%,and 21. 92%,respectively. Compared with the rapid urbanization forcing factor,the impact of these climatic factors was only one third of the former. The panel data of China’s county-level total population and annual average of visibility days were significantly correlated with China’s interdecadal heavy rainfall amount,rainy days and rain intensity. Their spatial correlation coefficient increased gradually from 1951-1960 to 2001-2010,that is,the total population of the county level increased from 0. 35,0. 36,and 0. 40 to 0. 54,0. 55,and 0. 58,respectively.The annual average of visibility days increased from 0. 36,0. 38,and 0. 48 to 0. 55. 0. 57,0. 58,further indicating that rapid urbanization triggered a significant increase in interdecadal large-area heavy rains in China.
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(71790611&41801064)
文摘The Report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has taken the Belt and Road Initiative and the implementation of the the Belt and Road Initiative as essential parts of China’s economic construction and multi-faceted diplomatic layout. As an important navigation channel for the ' 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road',the Arctic Route has unlimited development prospects in scientific research,transportation,resources,tourism,etc. Therefore,it is feasible to take this opportunity to adhere to the three policy concepts of respect,cooperation and mutual benefit,to deepen political,economic,trade and scientific and technological cooperation with the Arctic countries and interested countries. Starting from the joint creation of the ' Ice Silk Road' between China and Russia,this paper analyzed the enormous challenges faced by traditional routes. The Arctic Route has the obvious advantages and the values of economy,politics,resources,shipping and scientific research. The development of Arctic Route faces threats and limitations of substrate data,development technologies,and extreme marine meteorological disasters. Therefore,this paper believes that the development and construction of the Arctic Route with the aid of meteorology should be fully integrated into the construction of Belt and Road Initiative,strengthen the research on the geographical and climatic environment of the Arctic Ocean,deepen the monitoring of climate services and climate change in the Arctic Ocean,and create a safe Arctic Route. Besides,it is necessary to vigorously enhance the international cooperation and exchanges in the research of the Arctic Ocean,and build a large-scale scientific research plan with the aid of the joint creation of ' Ice Silk Road' by China and Russia. Besides,it is recommended to develop a variety of meteorological observation methods to enhance the early warning capability of disaster prevention and mitigation. In particular,it is recommended to vigorously develop the offshore meteorological observation capability of the ' Ice Silk Road',and continuously meet the needs of meteorological services and disaster prevention and mitigation for the construction of Belt and Road Initiative. In addition,it is necessary to comprehensively build a Chinese meteorological polar discipline system to meet the future demands of the Arctic Route.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (41801064,71790611)Funds for Research of Atmospheric Sciences in Central Asia (CAAS201804)
文摘Based on the data of hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in 2 481 stations in China from 1961 to 2016,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics,periodicity and climate abruption characteristics of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China were analyzed by various mathematical statistics methods. The results showed that in time,the days of four kinds of disastrous convective weather in China decreased,and the hail and thunderstorm days were characterized by " increasing firstly and then decreasing" from 1961 to 2016. The hail,gale,thunderstorm and lightning days in China had oscillation cycles of 3-5,2-3,1-2 and 1-4 a respectively,and the hail and thunderstorm days changed suddenly in 2002 and 1992 respectively. In space,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Sichuan were the highvalue distribution areas of hail,gale and thunderstorm days. The high-value distribution areas of thunderstorm days were also distributed to the south of the Yangtze River. South China and its southwestern regions at the same latitude were the high-value distribution areas of lightning days. In terms of trend,the hail days in China showed a decreasing trend mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The gale days in China decreased in the east,was unchanged in the central region,and increased and decreased alternately in the west. The thunderstorm days in China increased in Tibet,North China,Chongqing,Zhejiang and northwestern Heilongjiang. The lightning days in China decreased obviously to the south of the Yangtze River. In terms of the fluctuation,the hail days fluctuated greatly in the southeast. The gale days fluctuated greatly to the east of Hu Huanyong line. The thunderstorms days in China fluctuated greatly in the northwest and slightly in the southeast. In addition to the small fluctuation in northern Xinjiang and South China,the lightning days fluctuated greatly in other regions of China.
基金Supported by the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)National Natural Science Fund(71790611,41801064)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Global climate change greatly impedes the sustainable development of human society.And severe consequences could arise unless effective measures are taken to prevent them under the condition that we have a clear understanding of the trend of climate change.Currently,the most practical way to predict trend of climate change is GCM.However,GCM is unavailable in predicting detailed regional climate due to the lack of regional information and a relatively low spatial resolution of GCM.Such shortcoming is supplemented by the methods of downscaling which fall into three types:dynamical downscaling,statistical downscaling and the combination of statistical and dynamic downscaling.This paper aims at explaining in detail the methods of downscaling mentioned above and comparing their advantages and disadvantages in the hope of offering a reference for global climate prediction.
基金Supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T1201142019M650756)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064)Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘Sauna weather with high temperature, high humidity and long standby time has become one of the main meteorological hazards faced by urban residents. Based on the daily maximum temperature and relative humidity datasets of 545 meteorological observation stations in China from 1961 to 2017, the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of sauna days with different intensities in China were studied from three aspects: climatic state, trend and fluctuation characteristics, using the standard of sauna days defined by the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration. The results showed that: firstly, the spatial pattern of sauna days with different intensities in China was high in southeast China and low in northwest China from 1961 to 2017, and the spatial pattern of sauna days with the same intensity in different research periods had little difference, which was in good agreement with the spatial pattern of sauna days with corresponding intensities in the whole research period. With the increase of intensity, the sauna days in China decreases gradually. Secondly, the trend of sauna days with different intensities in China was bounded by Hu Huanyong Line from 1961 to 2017, showing a pattern of increasing or decreasing mosaic in the southeast China and mainly decreasing trend, while the spatial differentiation pattern in the northwest China changed little. The trend of sauna days with different intensities in China increased significantly in 1991-2017 compared with 1961-1990. Thirdly, the fluctuation of sauna days with different intensities in China was bounded by Hu Huanyong Line, showing a spatial pattern of large fluctuations in the southeast China and small fluctuations in the northwest China. And the fluctuation of sauna days and heavy sauna days showed obvious threeblock distribution characteristics. The fluctuation characteristics of sauna days with different intensities in China from 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2017 were in good agreement with the whole research period. The fluctuation difference before and after 1990 mainly concentrated in the vicinity of Hu Huanyong Line and its southeast area, and the fluctuation differences increased mainly, indicating that the variation of sauna days with different intensities in the southeast China increased from 1991 to 2017.
基金Supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,71790611)Central Asia Atmosphere Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which are located in Ansai County, north Shaanxi Province. The comparison of computation precision between variable DEM resolutions showed that NCSL was superior to SAC entirely. And the results were best when the DEM resolutions were 5 and 10 m. Besides, the results of slope length factor were nearly the same under the two conditions. So DEM of 10 m resolution can be used to extract slope length.
基金Sponsored by Beijing Social Science Foundation Project(19JDGLA008)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114+2 种基金 2019M650756)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064)Central Asia Atmospheric Sciences Research(CAAS201804)
文摘Climate change has become one of the key issues affecting global society and economic development,and it is related to the sustainable development of mankind and the earth’s ecological system.Firstly,this research begins with the important international conferences and agreements on Global Climate Governance,and analyzes the recent progress of the Paris Agreement,the Marrakech climate conference and the major progress of China&US climate cooperation and China’s contribution.Secondly,from the perspective of China’s adaptation and response to climate change,the main progress of climate change in China is reviewed from a multi-level perspective.The main scientific and technological progress and achievements in China’s response to climate change have been tracked.Finally,from the environmental risk areas,the future risks of climate change are predicted from six aspects,to contribute to the scientific and technological support program for climate change governance.
基金the support of the National Social Science Fund of China for Outstanding Project(#10AGL011)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘This article presents a comprehensive review of China's policy system for the management of natural hazard-induced disasters from 1949 to 2016 through a quantitative bibliometric analysis of 5472 policy documents on such disasters. It identifies four phases of China's evolving disaster management system, which focused on agriculture, economic development, government and professional capacity building, and disaster governance,respectively. Characteristics of policies and contributing factors of policy change in each of the four phases are discussed in depth. This article provides a quantitative foundation for understanding the dynamic policy change of the disaster management system in China with a particular emphasis on the governance capacity and may serve as a basis for exploring the potential pathways of transformation according to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.
