Based on the theoretical and empirical research of economists in the past decade,this article intends to address the following issues about the effects of China’s economy on the global economy:What impact does China...Based on the theoretical and empirical research of economists in the past decade,this article intends to address the following issues about the effects of China’s economy on the global economy:What impact does China’s fast-growing economy have on the global trade flow and trade pattern?Does China’s sustained export growth pose a significant competitive threat to some countries and regions(particularly the developing countries in East Asia,Latin America and Africa)?In the midst of fast economic growth driven by its reform and opening,China has become the largest FDI recipient among all developing countries and regions.Does the FDI received by China have"transfer effects"on other countries(especially in terms of FDI inflows into neighboring countries)?展开更多
This paper compares the internal structures of the manufacturing industries in China and the U.S. from 1998 to 2005 and leads to three major discoveries: First, the gaps between China and the U.S.'s manufacturing ...This paper compares the internal structures of the manufacturing industries in China and the U.S. from 1998 to 2005 and leads to three major discoveries: First, the gaps between China and the U.S.'s manufacturing capacity have been narrowing at a high speed in the last seven years, during which the share of added value of China's manufacturing industry to that of the U.S. increased from 13% to 52%, and then reached 76% in 2007. Second, the labor force employed in China's manufacturing industry increased by 50%, of which the increase in capital and technology-intensive production sectors exceeded that in labor-intensive sectors. Meanwhile, the labor force employed in the U.S. manufacturing industry decreased. Third, labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry increased by 2.78 times, and profits increased by 2.21 times, much higher than the U.S. growth rates of 18.2% and 49.5%. Obviously, the narrowing gaps between China and the U.S.'s production capacities mean China's industrial progress and the hierarchy of world industrial powers will be rearranged.展开更多
Technological progress is the main driver of labor productivity in manufacturing industries. But it is capital accumulation that makes such progress possible. In the early 21st century, China’s manufacturing entered ...Technological progress is the main driver of labor productivity in manufacturing industries. But it is capital accumulation that makes such progress possible. In the early 21st century, China’s manufacturing entered a process of capital deepening, in which labor productivity improvement is based on the increase of per capita assets. Capital accumulation in technical industries has created higher labor productivity and enabled phenomenal growth of new technology industries, contributing to the rapid and all-round growth of manufacturing industries as a whole. This is the real premise of China’s sustained economic growth over the past ten years.展开更多
The Worm Bank maintains that, compared to the growth of other industries, agricultural growth plays a more important role in reducing China＇s rural poverty. This stance, however, is contrary to the findings in this p...The Worm Bank maintains that, compared to the growth of other industries, agricultural growth plays a more important role in reducing China＇s rural poverty. This stance, however, is contrary to the findings in this paper. This paper asserts that China＇s experience in reducing rural poverty should be attributed to： （1） its earlier, unbalanced economic development strategies, which gave priority to heavy industries and industrialization and led to the economic boom,＂ and （2） the expansion of non-agricultural sectors, which enabled poor rural households to engage in non-agricultural production. Thus, the key impetus to reducing poverty in rural China is industrialization. Due to its large population but limited farmlands, it may not be a good strategy for China to make agricultural development a priority because its relatively low value added and net profits are inept to promote economic development and reduce rural poverty.展开更多
THE 2014 informal meeting of the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)is to be themed"Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership."The meeting this year will focus on three topics–advancing regiona...THE 2014 informal meeting of the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)is to be themed"Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership."The meeting this year will focus on three topics–advancing regional economic integration,promoting innovative development,economic reform and growth,as well as strengthening interdependence and infrastructure.The summit will also discuss the feasibility of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific(FTAAP)and determine if the Free Trade Area can be started.Bright Future for the FTAAP Founded in 1989,APEC,as an intergovernmental organization operating on the basis of non-binding commitments,open dialogue and equal respect for its 21member economies,is devoted to facilitating展开更多
Since 2010, there has been renewed discussion on China＇s economic future. After 30 years of breakneck economic growth, China＇s position in the world economy is more important than ever and people must understand how...Since 2010, there has been renewed discussion on China＇s economic future. After 30 years of breakneck economic growth, China＇s position in the world economy is more important than ever and people must understand how China＇s economic dominance will change the world economy. Some economists who are bearish about China＇s future believe that China＇s growth engine will lose fire in the next two or three years. To address their predictions about China＇s future, the author will address three themes： （11） Why did China manage to grow so rapidly？ （2） How long will China keep growing？ （3） Can China＇s economy keep growing in the future？ By analyzing the theory of inadequate consumer demand in China and by evaluating the general patterns of China＇s basic advantages in education, technology and human capital and industrial upgrading, the author explicitly argue why it is unlikely for China to fall into the ＂middle-income trap. ＂展开更多
In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the dom...In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the domestic production of maize, a non-competitive crop and the major staple in Mexico, has increased. The authors present new empirical evidence showing that, as expected, maize prices in Mexico dropped until 2006 and have experienced a process of convergence with USA prices, and maize imports from the USA have increased. However, despite lower prices, maize production in Mexico has trended upward since 1992, two years before the beginning of NAFTA＇s implementation. Based on the heterogeneity of maize production in Mexico, three possible explanations are proposed to explain this unexpected outcome： government supports to big commercial farmers in the agriculturally rich North of Mexico; the persistence of maize production by subsistence farmers; and to a lesser degree, increasing yields on some irrigated maize farms. We finish the paper by drawing lessons from the experience of Mexico for other Less Developed Countries.展开更多
In this research we investigate the association between local state capacity(LSC)and effective tax burdens(ETBs)on industrial firms within counties between 1998 and 2013.The LSC measures a state's capacity for pol...In this research we investigate the association between local state capacity(LSC)and effective tax burdens(ETBs)on industrial firms within counties between 1998 and 2013.The LSC measures a state's capacity for policy implementation and specifically its ability to acquire low-cost agricultural land for nonagricultural(industrial or commercial)purposes.Based on China's government-led development experience since the 1990s,we draw on two unique household survey datasets to capture LSC at county level.We find robust evidence that greater LSC was associated with much lower ETBs on large industrial firms.This taxation pattern implies local government's primary reliance on larger manufacturing firms,while the ETBs for small-and-medium enterprises are not as prominently addressed.This research highlights that LSC can affect both the amount of revenue a local government can generate and the methods it uses to collect these revenues.展开更多
This paper investigates whether changing the seating arrangement in a classroom can facilitate positive spillovers from top-performing students to others,using a field experiment conducted in a Chinese high school.Amo...This paper investigates whether changing the seating arrangement in a classroom can facilitate positive spillovers from top-performing students to others,using a field experiment conducted in a Chinese high school.Among study groups with balanced abilities,the treatment altered the spatial distribution by assigning the two top students to seats in the spatial center of each group.In the reference groups where students were allowed to choose their own seating arrangements,the lowest performing were significantly less likely to sit next to a top student than they would be under a random assignment.The results suggest that,in the treated groups,there could be enhanced academic spillovers from the top students.The treatment especially benefited the two lowest performing students in science subjects.In contrast,the treatment exerted negative effects on the test scores of the two middle-performing students,due to a disruption mechanism.The results suggest that the spatial layout of a peer network can have a significant impact on learning outcomes.展开更多
Income mobility is a key issue for understanding the process of economic growth and distributional change.Some economists have used the concept of“pro-poor growth”to examine,with individual-level panel data,whether ...Income mobility is a key issue for understanding the process of economic growth and distributional change.Some economists have used the concept of“pro-poor growth”to examine,with individual-level panel data,whether the poor benefit more than the rich from economic growth by tracking the extent of income mobility among different population subgroups.There is also literature in macroeconomics on the measurement of convergence.This paper introduces population-weighted relative and absolute indices of mobility,convergence,and pro-poor growth;it also distinguishes between anonymous and nonanonymous approaches to these issues.The empirical analysis is based on Chinese panel data for the period 2010–2018.In both absolute and relative terms,income growth in China was greater for individuals with an initially lower income but only for lower income deciles in relative terms.There was also an overall increase in individual welfare from anonymous and nonanonymous perspectives,which was higher among younger individuals.The welfare of the poor did not increase more than that of the nonpoor.These results shed light on the evolution of income distribution in China during the past decade's rapid economic growth.展开更多
Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calcula...Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.展开更多
Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the ne...Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.展开更多
Making use of the data envelopment analysis （DEA） technique and taking undesirable fiscal phenomena into account, this paper comprehensively quantifies the public fnance performance of local governments in China dur...Making use of the data envelopment analysis （DEA） technique and taking undesirable fiscal phenomena into account, this paper comprehensively quantifies the public fnance performance of local governments in China during the course of fiscal decentralization reform. The introduction of undesirable fiscal outcomes into this assessment makes it possible to identify meaningful and informative characteristics of local public finance performance in China. When reforms are first implemented, local pubIic financial performance improves because undesirable fiscal phenomena have not yet become too serious. The tax sharing system reform did not work well in its early stages, and negatively impacted public expenditure e3ficiency. The reform started to play a substantial role between 2001 and 2005, when local governments experienced better public finance performance. Corresponding to the deterioration of the financial sector in recent years, local public financial performance worsened after 2007. Further reform of the current fiscal and taxation system is necessary in China, to ensure a brighter future for the nation.展开更多
Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctu...Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.展开更多
For the first time,this paper uses the operation data of 575 online P2P lending platforms to test whether investors have a strong risk awareness of online lending products.It is found that investors’behavior shows a ...For the first time,this paper uses the operation data of 575 online P2P lending platforms to test whether investors have a strong risk awareness of online lending products.It is found that investors’behavior shows a certain risk awareness,both for the individual risk of specific platforms and for the overall market risk of the industry.On the one hand,raising interest rates and shortening the term does attract more investment,but for potentially problematic platforms,the effect of attracting investment is significantly worse,with excessive interest rates on the platforms even causing investors to invest less.On the other hand,when there are more online lending platforms in the market,investors will behave more cautiously.展开更多
Making use of the DEA nonparametric method and the limited Tobit model, this article estimates the relative efficiency of Chinese provincial governments＇ fiscal expenditure following financial decentralization reform...Making use of the DEA nonparametric method and the limited Tobit model, this article estimates the relative efficiency of Chinese provincial governments＇ fiscal expenditure following financial decentralization reform, and explains the factors that influence the changing pattern of such expenditure efficiency.展开更多
Regression-based decomposition of inter-industry earnings differentials shows that in 1988, 1995 and 2002, inter-industry earnings differentials made an increasing contribution to urban earnings inequality in China. T...Regression-based decomposition of inter-industry earnings differentials shows that in 1988, 1995 and 2002, inter-industry earnings differentials made an increasing contribution to urban earnings inequality in China. The primary reason for the widening gap lay in monopoly industries. At the same time, geographical location, educational level, type of enterprise ownership, type of occupation and whether the individual had a second job also contributed to rising earnings inequality, while age and being fully employed made a decreasing contribution. Therefore, if China is to reduce the earnings gap it is imperative that we remove barriers to labor market entry and break down some monopoly industries in the product market. Additionally, reducing obstacles to the free movement of labor and improving workers＇ educational level should also be important elements of the government＇s strategy for reducing the urban income gap in future.展开更多
Can the development zone policy that pioneered Chinese industrialization energize the consumption of urban residents and become an important means of achieving the coordinated development of industrialization and urba...Can the development zone policy that pioneered Chinese industrialization energize the consumption of urban residents and become an important means of achieving the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization?We used the policy impact of upgrading provincial development zones to conduct empirical research on the consumptiondriven effect of development zone policy with the Difference in Difference(DID)model.Our findings show that the upgrading of development zones is significant in raising urban residents’total consumption,personal consumption,housing consumption and expenditure on children’s education.This is mainly due to the increase in productivity brought about by the upgrading policy.However,in cities that have more stringent household registration(hukou)systems,impose tougher home purchase restrictions(HPR)on the floating population and have less social harmony,the labor force is less willing and less able to consume,making it hard to expand domestic demand.展开更多
This study investigates whether the tax-sharing system has deteriorated the fiscal capacity of subnational governments by analyzing how fiscal revenues are divided between provincial and sub-provincial data J？om Zhej...This study investigates whether the tax-sharing system has deteriorated the fiscal capacity of subnational governments by analyzing how fiscal revenues are divided between provincial and sub-provincial data J？om Zhejiang Province in China governments. Our study of county-level fiscal during 1994-2007 shows that intra-provincial revenue-sharing rules favor county governments in two ways： （i） they improve county governments ＇fiscal autonomy in terms of using their own revenues; and （ii） they enhance county governments ＇fiscal capacity through province-to-county general tran^Jers. In addition, we find that intra-provincial fiscal revenue-sharing rules and transJers reduce [iscal dist^aritv between counties.展开更多
Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, this paper examines the changing pattern of China＇s urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005-2012 avera...Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, this paper examines the changing pattern of China＇s urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005-2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non-state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state-owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.展开更多
文摘Based on the theoretical and empirical research of economists in the past decade,this article intends to address the following issues about the effects of China’s economy on the global economy:What impact does China’s fast-growing economy have on the global trade flow and trade pattern?Does China’s sustained export growth pose a significant competitive threat to some countries and regions(particularly the developing countries in East Asia,Latin America and Africa)?In the midst of fast economic growth driven by its reform and opening,China has become the largest FDI recipient among all developing countries and regions.Does the FDI received by China have"transfer effects"on other countries(especially in terms of FDI inflows into neighboring countries)?
基金sponsored by "Empirical Research Project on China's Industrial Innovation Strategies and Policy Options",which is a major project of a key humanities and social sciences research center of the Ministry of Educationfunded by the "regional" sub-project of China's International Economic Competitiveness Research and Innovation Center of Fudan University
文摘This paper compares the internal structures of the manufacturing industries in China and the U.S. from 1998 to 2005 and leads to three major discoveries: First, the gaps between China and the U.S.'s manufacturing capacity have been narrowing at a high speed in the last seven years, during which the share of added value of China's manufacturing industry to that of the U.S. increased from 13% to 52%, and then reached 76% in 2007. Second, the labor force employed in China's manufacturing industry increased by 50%, of which the increase in capital and technology-intensive production sectors exceeded that in labor-intensive sectors. Meanwhile, the labor force employed in the U.S. manufacturing industry decreased. Third, labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry increased by 2.78 times, and profits increased by 2.21 times, much higher than the U.S. growth rates of 18.2% and 49.5%. Obviously, the narrowing gaps between China and the U.S.'s production capacities mean China's industrial progress and the hierarchy of world industrial powers will be rearranged.
基金the key program Empirical Research of China's Strategies on Industrial Technology Innovation and Policy Options under the Key Research Center of Cultural and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Educationsponsored by the"regional"subprogram of the Research and Innovation Center of Fudan University on the International Competitiveness of the Chinese Economy
文摘Technological progress is the main driver of labor productivity in manufacturing industries. But it is capital accumulation that makes such progress possible. In the early 21st century, China’s manufacturing entered a process of capital deepening, in which labor productivity improvement is based on the increase of per capita assets. Capital accumulation in technical industries has created higher labor productivity and enabled phenomenal growth of new technology industries, contributing to the rapid and all-round growth of manufacturing industries as a whole. This is the real premise of China’s sustained economic growth over the past ten years.
文摘The Worm Bank maintains that, compared to the growth of other industries, agricultural growth plays a more important role in reducing China＇s rural poverty. This stance, however, is contrary to the findings in this paper. This paper asserts that China＇s experience in reducing rural poverty should be attributed to： （1） its earlier, unbalanced economic development strategies, which gave priority to heavy industries and industrialization and led to the economic boom,＂ and （2） the expansion of non-agricultural sectors, which enabled poor rural households to engage in non-agricultural production. Thus, the key impetus to reducing poverty in rural China is industrialization. Due to its large population but limited farmlands, it may not be a good strategy for China to make agricultural development a priority because its relatively low value added and net profits are inept to promote economic development and reduce rural poverty.
文摘THE 2014 informal meeting of the AsiaPacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)is to be themed"Shaping the Future through Asia-Pacific Partnership."The meeting this year will focus on three topics–advancing regional economic integration,promoting innovative development,economic reform and growth,as well as strengthening interdependence and infrastructure.The summit will also discuss the feasibility of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific(FTAAP)and determine if the Free Trade Area can be started.Bright Future for the FTAAP Founded in 1989,APEC,as an intergovernmental organization operating on the basis of non-binding commitments,open dialogue and equal respect for its 21member economies,is devoted to facilitating
文摘Since 2010, there has been renewed discussion on China＇s economic future. After 30 years of breakneck economic growth, China＇s position in the world economy is more important than ever and people must understand how China＇s economic dominance will change the world economy. Some economists who are bearish about China＇s future believe that China＇s growth engine will lose fire in the next two or three years. To address their predictions about China＇s future, the author will address three themes： （11） Why did China manage to grow so rapidly？ （2） How long will China keep growing？ （3） Can China＇s economy keep growing in the future？ By analyzing the theory of inadequate consumer demand in China and by evaluating the general patterns of China＇s basic advantages in education, technology and human capital and industrial upgrading, the author explicitly argue why it is unlikely for China to fall into the ＂middle-income trap. ＂
文摘In this paper the authors inquire why, after more than 25 years of domestic agricultural reforms in Mexico and 15 years of trade liberalization of maize under the North American Free Trade Agreement （NAFTA）, the domestic production of maize, a non-competitive crop and the major staple in Mexico, has increased. The authors present new empirical evidence showing that, as expected, maize prices in Mexico dropped until 2006 and have experienced a process of convergence with USA prices, and maize imports from the USA have increased. However, despite lower prices, maize production in Mexico has trended upward since 1992, two years before the beginning of NAFTA＇s implementation. Based on the heterogeneity of maize production in Mexico, three possible explanations are proposed to explain this unexpected outcome： government supports to big commercial farmers in the agriculturally rich North of Mexico; the persistence of maize production by subsistence farmers; and to a lesser degree, increasing yields on some irrigated maize farms. We finish the paper by drawing lessons from the experience of Mexico for other Less Developed Countries.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72121005,72342030,72293565,and 72173025)Innovative Research Groups Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72121002)the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project of China(No.21YJA790042).
文摘In this research we investigate the association between local state capacity(LSC)and effective tax burdens(ETBs)on industrial firms within counties between 1998 and 2013.The LSC measures a state's capacity for policy implementation and specifically its ability to acquire low-cost agricultural land for nonagricultural(industrial or commercial)purposes.Based on China's government-led development experience since the 1990s,we draw on two unique household survey datasets to capture LSC at county level.We find robust evidence that greater LSC was associated with much lower ETBs on large industrial firms.This taxation pattern implies local government's primary reliance on larger manufacturing firms,while the ETBs for small-and-medium enterprises are not as prominently addressed.This research highlights that LSC can affect both the amount of revenue a local government can generate and the methods it uses to collect these revenues.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72203039,72273004,and 72003036)the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20CJL030)support from the Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics and Quantitative Finance,Ministry of Education and Peking University,China(RCT ID:AEARCTR-0007880).
文摘This paper investigates whether changing the seating arrangement in a classroom can facilitate positive spillovers from top-performing students to others,using a field experiment conducted in a Chinese high school.Among study groups with balanced abilities,the treatment altered the spatial distribution by assigning the two top students to seats in the spatial center of each group.In the reference groups where students were allowed to choose their own seating arrangements,the lowest performing were significantly less likely to sit next to a top student than they would be under a random assignment.The results suggest that,in the treated groups,there could be enhanced academic spillovers from the top students.The treatment especially benefited the two lowest performing students in science subjects.In contrast,the treatment exerted negative effects on the test scores of the two middle-performing students,due to a disruption mechanism.The results suggest that the spatial layout of a peer network can have a significant impact on learning outcomes.
基金A previous version of this paper was presented by Jacques Silber at the Western Economic Association International(WEAI)15th International Conference,which took place on March 21–24,2019,at Keio University,Tokyo,Japan.Jacques Silber is grateful to the participants in his session,in particular to Peter Phelps,for their very useful comments.He is also grateful for the comments he received at seminars that he gave at the Asian Growth Research Institute in Kitakyushu and at Kyoto University,and at the Encuentro de Economia Publica(Barcelona,January 23–24,2020)Elena Bárcena-Martín acknowledges financial aid from Grant PID2020-115429GB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033Yuan Zhang acknowledges financial aid from the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72173026).
文摘Income mobility is a key issue for understanding the process of economic growth and distributional change.Some economists have used the concept of“pro-poor growth”to examine,with individual-level panel data,whether the poor benefit more than the rich from economic growth by tracking the extent of income mobility among different population subgroups.There is also literature in macroeconomics on the measurement of convergence.This paper introduces population-weighted relative and absolute indices of mobility,convergence,and pro-poor growth;it also distinguishes between anonymous and nonanonymous approaches to these issues.The empirical analysis is based on Chinese panel data for the period 2010–2018.In both absolute and relative terms,income growth in China was greater for individuals with an initially lower income but only for lower income deciles in relative terms.There was also an overall increase in individual welfare from anonymous and nonanonymous perspectives,which was higher among younger individuals.The welfare of the poor did not increase more than that of the nonpoor.These results shed light on the evolution of income distribution in China during the past decade's rapid economic growth.
基金under the research project "The Opening Policy and Industrial Upgrading in China:Theory,Empirics and Policy"(10JJD790009)sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China
文摘Economists have recently become interested in weighting how much domestic value-added is actually included in China＇ s exports. Formally, the proportion of foreign and domestic contents could be identified by calculating the vertical specialization share using noncompetitive input-output tables. Applying such a method to the Chinese case, however, would result in a big measurement bias because China has a large share of processing exports, which utilize a disproportionately high percentage of imported intermediates. This paper, by directly employing 2008 trade data for which imported intermediates in both processing and non-processing trade could be identified by means of various trade patterns, provides a simplified way to estimate the share of foreign/domestic value-added included in industry-level manufactured exports. This paper finds that the vertical specialization share of China＇ s processing exports was about 56 percent in 2008, compared to about 10 percent for ordinary exports. It also finds that the sectors that experienced fast expansion of processing exports have a much higher share of foreign contents. Since processing exports accoant for about half of Chinese exports, the prevailing trade statistics, which focus on gross values rather than the value-added of exports and imports, has obviously overstated the bilateral trade imbalances, especially between China and the USA.
文摘Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
基金sponsored by Project 985(2011SHKXZD001)Zhuo-Shi Talent Plan at Fudan Universitythe Shanghai Leading Academic Disciplines Project(B101)
文摘Making use of the data envelopment analysis （DEA） technique and taking undesirable fiscal phenomena into account, this paper comprehensively quantifies the public fnance performance of local governments in China during the course of fiscal decentralization reform. The introduction of undesirable fiscal outcomes into this assessment makes it possible to identify meaningful and informative characteristics of local public finance performance in China. When reforms are first implemented, local pubIic financial performance improves because undesirable fiscal phenomena have not yet become too serious. The tax sharing system reform did not work well in its early stages, and negatively impacted public expenditure e3ficiency. The reform started to play a substantial role between 2001 and 2005, when local governments experienced better public finance performance. Corresponding to the deterioration of the financial sector in recent years, local public financial performance worsened after 2007. Further reform of the current fiscal and taxation system is necessary in China, to ensure a brighter future for the nation.
基金The authors express their appreciation for the funding support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation program, ＂Research on the Improvement of Chinese Employees＇ Wage and SaIary Formation Mechanisms＂ （project number： 70873022）, the Key Project of the Shanghai Scientific and Technological Innovation Committee （project number： 09ZS 11）, the Young Scholars Program in Social Science Research of the Ministry of Education （project number： 06JC790012）, and the Shanghai Key Project Research Program （project number： B101）. The original draft was presented at the 188th lecture in the Modern Economics Series hosted by the Research Center for the Chinese Socialist Market Economy at Fudan University. We hereby extend our sincere thanks to all the participants and our anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. Needless to say, we are responsible for any errors or omissions in this study.
文摘Empirical study of sectoral-level change in LIS in China reveals that change in industry structure is synchronous and positively correlated with LIS in different sectors of the economy, intensifying overall LIS fluctuations. Our analysis of LIS based on data from the major sectors of China＇s economy show that, relative to 1993, the increase in LIS in 1996 was largely due to the increased proportion of LIS in secondary industry. Relative to 1996, the fall in LIS in 2003 was closely related to the fall in the proportion of primary industry in the overall economy. The year 2004 was unusual in that it witnessed a dramatic fall in overall LIS level. The primary reason for the fall was a change in statistical definition that led to a significant reduction in LIS in the secondary and tertiary sectors. There were huge variations in LIS level among different regions. However, with the passage of time, the regional disparities are gradually being reduced. This is also closely connected to changes in industry structure and within-sector LIS fluctuations.
文摘For the first time,this paper uses the operation data of 575 online P2P lending platforms to test whether investors have a strong risk awareness of online lending products.It is found that investors’behavior shows a certain risk awareness,both for the individual risk of specific platforms and for the overall market risk of the industry.On the one hand,raising interest rates and shortening the term does attract more investment,but for potentially problematic platforms,the effect of attracting investment is significantly worse,with excessive interest rates on the platforms even causing investors to invest less.On the other hand,when there are more online lending platforms in the market,investors will behave more cautiously.
文摘Making use of the DEA nonparametric method and the limited Tobit model, this article estimates the relative efficiency of Chinese provincial governments＇ fiscal expenditure following financial decentralization reform, and explains the factors that influence the changing pattern of such expenditure efficiency.
文摘Regression-based decomposition of inter-industry earnings differentials shows that in 1988, 1995 and 2002, inter-industry earnings differentials made an increasing contribution to urban earnings inequality in China. The primary reason for the widening gap lay in monopoly industries. At the same time, geographical location, educational level, type of enterprise ownership, type of occupation and whether the individual had a second job also contributed to rising earnings inequality, while age and being fully employed made a decreasing contribution. Therefore, if China is to reduce the earnings gap it is imperative that we remove barriers to labor market entry and break down some monopoly industries in the product market. Additionally, reducing obstacles to the free movement of labor and improving workers＇ educational level should also be important elements of the government＇s strategy for reducing the urban income gap in future.
基金This paper is a phased result of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars Project“Urban Development and Management”(71625004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China General Project“Research on the Localization Effect of Reorganizing Districts and Counties on the Basis of Micro-Geographical Data”(71573054).
文摘Can the development zone policy that pioneered Chinese industrialization energize the consumption of urban residents and become an important means of achieving the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization?We used the policy impact of upgrading provincial development zones to conduct empirical research on the consumptiondriven effect of development zone policy with the Difference in Difference(DID)model.Our findings show that the upgrading of development zones is significant in raising urban residents’total consumption,personal consumption,housing consumption and expenditure on children’s education.This is mainly due to the increase in productivity brought about by the upgrading policy.However,in cities that have more stringent household registration(hukou)systems,impose tougher home purchase restrictions(HPR)on the floating population and have less social harmony,the labor force is less willing and less able to consume,making it hard to expand domestic demand.
基金The authors thank Ruimin Wang for generously making his data available. Funding for this research was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 71773019）, the Shanghai Pujiang Scholarship （No. PJ0001644） and the Grant for Key Programs Sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China （No. 13JJD790006）.
文摘This study investigates whether the tax-sharing system has deteriorated the fiscal capacity of subnational governments by analyzing how fiscal revenues are divided between provincial and sub-provincial data J？om Zhejiang Province in China governments. Our study of county-level fiscal during 1994-2007 shows that intra-provincial revenue-sharing rules favor county governments in two ways： （i） they improve county governments ＇fiscal autonomy in terms of using their own revenues; and （ii） they enhance county governments ＇fiscal capacity through province-to-county general tran^Jers. In addition, we find that intra-provincial fiscal revenue-sharing rules and transJers reduce [iscal dist^aritv between counties.
基金The authors thank all the participants at the workshop on the ＂Middle Income Trap in Asia and PRC＇s Economic New Normal＂ for helpful comments. They also thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China for financial support through research grant No. 71333002 and the National Social Science Foundation of China for support through research grant No. 15ZDA008.
文摘Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, this paper examines the changing pattern of China＇s urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005-2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non-state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state-owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.
