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Species and Plant Community Reorganization in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt under Climate Change Conditions
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作者 VILLERS-RUIZ Lourdes CASTAEDA-AGUADO Diana 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第6期923-931,共9页
This study analyzes six vegetation communities in relation to current climatic parameters and eight climate change scenarios along an elevation gradient extending from 2,710 m to 4,210 m in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic ... This study analyzes six vegetation communities in relation to current climatic parameters and eight climate change scenarios along an elevation gradient extending from 2,710 m to 4,210 m in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The projected movements of 25 plant species with the current restricted or wide altitudinal distributions were also modeled. To relate climatic parameters to the species and communities, a Precipitation/Temperature (P/T) index was used both for the current and the different climate-change scenarios. The temperatures are expected to increase by 1.1℃ to 1.7℃ by 2020 and by 2℃ to 3℃ by 2o5o. A decrease of 4% to 13% in the annual precipitation is expected for the 2020 horizon, and a reduction between 3% and 20% is expected for 2050. The reductions in water availability were projected for all altitude levels and plant communities. The most marked reduction was under the HADLEY- A2 scenario, in which the lower limit of the altitudinal range increased from 2,71o to 3,31o m (2050 horizon) with reductions in the P/T index between 36% and 39% compared to the current climate. Most plant species tended to shift their distribution from 20o to 300 m upward in the 2020 temporal horizon scenarios. The Pinus hartwegii, Alnus jorullensis and Pinus montezumae communities would have a shorter altitudinal range as they move upward and merge with the remaining species at the higher altitudinal range. For the 2o5o temporal horizon, 3o% of the species, primarily those from the higher altitudinal range, would disappear because their P/Tindex values would be above the limit of plant survival (〉4,210 m). 展开更多
关键词 Forest communities Climate change Upward movement Natural protected areas
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