In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method （DDM） in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Re...This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method （DDM） in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model （MM5）.Sensitivity experiments show that MM5 results at upper atmospheric levels cannot match reanalyses data,but the results show consistent improvement in simulating moisture transport at low levels.The downscaling ability for precipitation is regionally dependent.During the monsoon season over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon season over North China,the DDM cannot match observed precipitation.Over Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau （TP）,where there is high topography,the DDM shows better performance than reanalyses.Simulated monsoon evolution processes over East Asia,however,are much closer to observational data than reanalyses.The convection scheme has a substantial impact on extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon over North China,but only a marginal contribution for Northwest China and the TP.Land surface parameterizations affect the locations and pattern of rainfall bands.The 10-day re-initialization in this study shows some improvement in simulated precipitation over some sub-regions but with no obvious improvement in circulation.The setting of the location of lateral boundaries （LLB） westward improves performance of the DDM.Including the entire TP in the western model domain improves the DDM performance in simulating precipitation in most sub-regions.In addition,a seasonal simulation demonstrates that the DDM can also obtain consistent results,as in the June case,even when another two months consist of no strong climate/weather events.展开更多
This paper examines the annual highest daily maximum temperature （DMT） in Korea by using data from 56 weather stations and employing spatial extreme modeling. Our approach is based on max-stable processes （MSP） wi...This paper examines the annual highest daily maximum temperature （DMT） in Korea by using data from 56 weather stations and employing spatial extreme modeling. Our approach is based on max-stable processes （MSP） with Schlather＇s characterization. We divide the country into four regions for a better model fit and identify the best model for each region. We show that regional MSP modeling is more suitable than MSP modeling for the entire region and the pointwise generalized extreme value distribution approach. The advantage of spatial extreme modeling is that more precise and robust return levels and some indices of the highest temperatures can be obtained for observation stations and for locations with no observed data, and so help to determine the effects and assessment of vulnerability as well as to downscale extreme events.展开更多
Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the ext...Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the extratropics reveals remarkably different features as the longitudinal tropical forcing region changes. The Rossby wave source (Positive) shows the largest maximum over East Asia in both years due to the persistent heating from the western Pacific warm pool area. However, the sink term shows contrasting features over the subtropics and extratropics between the two years. In the El Niño year, enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific produces the Rossby wave sink at 10°N and shifted eastward over the North Pacific, while in the La Niña year, the sink area is shifted westward over the North Pacific. The contrasting features between the two events in mean-eddy interaction appears especially over the downstream area of the East Asian Jet. The extension (retraction) of the meanflow eastward (westward) to the east (west) of the dateline is related with the effect of the westward (eastward) E-vector and the strengthening (weakening) of the negative anomalies of the barotropic growth of kinetic energy. Hence, almost opposite characteristics between the two events can explain the close relationship of tropical convection and the extratropical internal variability.展开更多
Time series of sea level heights have been collected at different stations along the Cameroon coast. The dataset covers a period ranging from 2007 to 2012. Tide data measured by float type recorders have been digitali...Time series of sea level heights have been collected at different stations along the Cameroon coast. The dataset covers a period ranging from 2007 to 2012. Tide data measured by float type recorders have been digitalized and quality-controlled with tools developed at Laboratoire d’Etudes Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (LEGOS). Short gaps in the data have been interpolated while large gaps were not. Tide constituents were retrieved through harmonic analysis using 123 waves having a period ranging from long ones to eighth-diurnal ones. The reconstructed signal is used to assess the quality of both the data and the analysis and the erroneous records were examined and corrected. The effect of the hourly averaging of the raw data on the quality of the analysis is also investigated. The tide constituents having the largest amplitudes are, as expected, the semi-diurnal, diurnal, fourth-diurnal and long term constituents. The major components of semi-diurnal waves are the M2 and S2 tides. The M2 tide height ranges between 0.5 and 0.85 m. The maximum height is found at Cameroon estuary and the minimum at the Kribi station located in the South coast. The S2 constituent varies similarly as the M2 constituent. Its amplitude ranges between 0.18 and 0.52 m. The lowest S2 amplitude occurs also at Kribi station. In the Dibamba estuary the spectrum shows a larger number of significant semi-diurnal and fourth-diurnal waves than other zones. Concerning diurnal waves, the dominant one is the K1 tide and its amplitude is homogeneous along the coast. The influence of the long-term components is the strongest in the Cameroon estuary due to important fluctuations of the rivers run-off.展开更多
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
基金supported by the funding of the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KZCX2-YW-328)the National Key Basic Research Program (2005CB422003)+1 种基金National Science Foundation Center of China (NSFC) (40871001)the US JPL Grant No. 1278492,NOAA Grant Nos NA07OAR4310226 and NA08OAR4310591
文摘This study investigates the capability of the dynamic downscaling method （DDM） in an East Asian climate study for June 1998 using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model （MM5）.Sensitivity experiments show that MM5 results at upper atmospheric levels cannot match reanalyses data,but the results show consistent improvement in simulating moisture transport at low levels.The downscaling ability for precipitation is regionally dependent.During the monsoon season over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon season over North China,the DDM cannot match observed precipitation.Over Northwest China and the Tibetan Plateau （TP）,where there is high topography,the DDM shows better performance than reanalyses.Simulated monsoon evolution processes over East Asia,however,are much closer to observational data than reanalyses.The convection scheme has a substantial impact on extreme rainfall over the Yangtze River basin and the pre-monsoon over North China,but only a marginal contribution for Northwest China and the TP.Land surface parameterizations affect the locations and pattern of rainfall bands.The 10-day re-initialization in this study shows some improvement in simulated precipitation over some sub-regions but with no obvious improvement in circulation.The setting of the location of lateral boundaries （LLB） westward improves performance of the DDM.Including the entire TP in the western model domain improves the DDM performance in simulating precipitation in most sub-regions.In addition,a seasonal simulation demonstrates that the DDM can also obtain consistent results,as in the June case,even when another two months consist of no strong climate/weather events.
文摘This paper examines the annual highest daily maximum temperature （DMT） in Korea by using data from 56 weather stations and employing spatial extreme modeling. Our approach is based on max-stable processes （MSP） with Schlather＇s characterization. We divide the country into four regions for a better model fit and identify the best model for each region. We show that regional MSP modeling is more suitable than MSP modeling for the entire region and the pointwise generalized extreme value distribution approach. The advantage of spatial extreme modeling is that more precise and robust return levels and some indices of the highest temperatures can be obtained for observation stations and for locations with no observed data, and so help to determine the effects and assessment of vulnerability as well as to downscale extreme events.
文摘Boreal wintertime extratropical circulation is studied in relation to the tropical convection during the 1982/83 El Niño and 1988/89 La Niña. The anomaly structure of 1982/83 and 1988/89 over the extratropics reveals remarkably different features as the longitudinal tropical forcing region changes. The Rossby wave source (Positive) shows the largest maximum over East Asia in both years due to the persistent heating from the western Pacific warm pool area. However, the sink term shows contrasting features over the subtropics and extratropics between the two years. In the El Niño year, enhanced tropical convection over the eastern Pacific produces the Rossby wave sink at 10°N and shifted eastward over the North Pacific, while in the La Niña year, the sink area is shifted westward over the North Pacific. The contrasting features between the two events in mean-eddy interaction appears especially over the downstream area of the East Asian Jet. The extension (retraction) of the meanflow eastward (westward) to the east (west) of the dateline is related with the effect of the westward (eastward) E-vector and the strengthening (weakening) of the negative anomalies of the barotropic growth of kinetic energy. Hence, almost opposite characteristics between the two events can explain the close relationship of tropical convection and the extratropical internal variability.
文摘Time series of sea level heights have been collected at different stations along the Cameroon coast. The dataset covers a period ranging from 2007 to 2012. Tide data measured by float type recorders have been digitalized and quality-controlled with tools developed at Laboratoire d’Etudes Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale (LEGOS). Short gaps in the data have been interpolated while large gaps were not. Tide constituents were retrieved through harmonic analysis using 123 waves having a period ranging from long ones to eighth-diurnal ones. The reconstructed signal is used to assess the quality of both the data and the analysis and the erroneous records were examined and corrected. The effect of the hourly averaging of the raw data on the quality of the analysis is also investigated. The tide constituents having the largest amplitudes are, as expected, the semi-diurnal, diurnal, fourth-diurnal and long term constituents. The major components of semi-diurnal waves are the M2 and S2 tides. The M2 tide height ranges between 0.5 and 0.85 m. The maximum height is found at Cameroon estuary and the minimum at the Kribi station located in the South coast. The S2 constituent varies similarly as the M2 constituent. Its amplitude ranges between 0.18 and 0.52 m. The lowest S2 amplitude occurs also at Kribi station. In the Dibamba estuary the spectrum shows a larger number of significant semi-diurnal and fourth-diurnal waves than other zones. Concerning diurnal waves, the dominant one is the K1 tide and its amplitude is homogeneous along the coast. The influence of the long-term components is the strongest in the Cameroon estuary due to important fluctuations of the rivers run-off.
