According to the geological structural features, Beijing and the adjacent areas can be divided into two regions of plain in the east and mountain in the west. Among the stations covered by the telemetered digital seis...According to the geological structural features, Beijing and the adjacent areas can be divided into two regions of plain in the east and mountain in the west. Among the stations covered by the telemetered digital seismic station network of Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, the stations in the plain area are all borehole ones and the stations in the western mountainous region are all located on the surface bedrock. In the paper, 511 wave- form data recorded by the network from Oct. 2001 to Oct. 2004 are used in the researches for the entire Beijing region, the western mountainous region and the eastern plain area, respectively. The Q values are calculated for each area by Atkinson′s method and compared with the existed data. The reliability of the Q values and the reasons for the difference in the Q values are also discussed. Then, the source parameters and site response are inverted by the Moya′s method, in which two models are used. The first model uses the Q values, earthquakes and stations in the sub-areas and the second model uses the Q values, earthquakes and stations in the entire Beijing region. The results indicate that the source parameters and site responses obtained by two models are basically consistent with each other. It also indicates that the source parameters obtained by these methods are not affected by the size of station network.展开更多
We discuss the influence of precipitation and groundwater on the deformation behavior of the Babaoshan fault of Beijing by using long-term observation data from Dahuichang station during 1970-2003. The results show th...We discuss the influence of precipitation and groundwater on the deformation behavior of the Babaoshan fault of Beijing by using long-term observation data from Dahuichang station during 1970-2003. The results show that a) the pore pressure on fault zone as well as the fault deformation behavior exhibited periodically variation as precipitation changed steadily and periodically; b) the periodicity of the pore pressure of fault zones disappeared and the manner of fault deformation behavior changed when precipitation was small and/or was in aberrance. This implies that rainfall plays a key role in fault deformation behavior through changing the pore pressure of fault zones. Combining the existing results about the Babaoshan fault, it is concluded that precipitation and groundwater may adjust the stress/strain field by controlling the deformation behavior of the fault, which can provide direct observation evidence for the interaction of fluid and solid in shallow crust of the Earth.展开更多
This paper quantitatively analyzed groundwater table fluctuations caused by groundwater overdraft, and probed into the possibility of drawing earthquake precursory information from groundwater table variations on the ...This paper quantitatively analyzed groundwater table fluctuations caused by groundwater overdraft, and probed into the possibility of drawing earthquake precursory information from groundwater table variations on the background of groundwater overdraft. Main effect factors of groundwater regime in Beijing region include groundwater extraction and rainfall. The decline of groundwater table was directly related to regional groundwater overdraft. Using the method of correlation analysis, the paper analyzed the relation between groundwater overdraft and groundwater level variations, with the aim of evaluating the effect of groundwater overdraft on water levels in observation wells and providing scientific basis for identifying seismic precursory information. The results indicate that the variations of groundwater level in slightly-affected zones of groundwater overdraft can contain some seismic precursory information, and it is possible to extract seismic precursory anomalies if proper mathematical methods are adopted to remove the trend component and annual period changes.展开更多
On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoela...On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.展开更多
Seismic damage indices of structure are widely used to quantificationally analyze structural damage levels under earthquake action. In this paper, a five-storey building model and a seventeen-storey building model are...Seismic damage indices of structure are widely used to quantificationally analyze structural damage levels under earthquake action. In this paper, a five-storey building model and a seventeen-storey building model are established. According to seven typical indices and different earthquake-inputs, a structural damage prediction is performed, with the results showing serious uncertainty of structural damage prediction due to different indices. Understanding of this phenomenon aids the comprehension and application of the results of earthquake damage prediction.展开更多
Air-gun is an important active seismic source.With the development of the theory about air-gun array,the technique for air-gun array design becomes mature and is widely used in petroleum exploration and geophysics.In ...Air-gun is an important active seismic source.With the development of the theory about air-gun array,the technique for air-gun array design becomes mature and is widely used in petroleum exploration and geophysics.In order to adapt it to different research domains,different combination and fired models are needed.At the present time,there are two fired models of air-gun source,namely,reinforced initial pulse and reinforced first bubble pulse.The fired time,space between single guns,frequency and resolution of the two models are different.This comparison can supply the basis for its extensive application.展开更多
Recent fluid monitoring work shows that the contents of mantle-derived CO2, He and CH4 increased anomalously in 2002 and 2003. The ^3He/^4He ratio of the deep-fault-type Jinjiang hot springs increased highly anomalous...Recent fluid monitoring work shows that the contents of mantle-derived CO2, He and CH4 increased anomalously in 2002 and 2003. The ^3He/^4He ratio of the deep-fault-type Jinjiang hot springs increased highly anomalously in 2003, and then decreased in 2004. The ^3He/^4He ratio from the thermal-reservoir-type Changbaijulong hot springs increased slowly in 2003, and the increase continued in 2004. The mantle-derived He content of the He released from the Changbaijulong springs increased obviously in 2004. The anomaly of the released gases and the isotopic He was consistent with the trends of seismic activities in the Tianchi volcanic area between 2002 and 2004. The abnormal release of the Jinjiang hot springs apparently decreased after the seismic activities ceased in the second half of 2004, while the abnormal release from the Changbaljulong increased significantly after these seismic activities. It shows that the abnormal release of magmas-derived gases from the thermal-reservoir-type springs lags behind that of the deep-fault-type springs. These characteristics may be of great significance for identifying deep magmatic activity and predicting volcanic earthquakes in the future.展开更多
With waveform data of 613 earthquakes with ML ≥ 2. 5 in the middle section of the Xiaojiang fault and its adjacent area which occurred during January,1998 to September 2007,focal mechanisms were calculated by the dir...With waveform data of 613 earthquakes with ML ≥ 2. 5 in the middle section of the Xiaojiang fault and its adjacent area which occurred during January,1998 to September 2007,focal mechanisms were calculated by the direct wave amplitude ratio of S /P in the vertical component and their characteristics were analyzed. According to regional tectonic features of the middle section of the Xiaojiang fault and its adjacent area,the study region was partitioned into two zones with the Xiaojiang fault as the boundary,e. g. zone A and zone B (including the Xiaojiang fault). In order to research the faults stress in detail,the Xiaojiang fault zone was picked out for independent analysis. The study region was also partitioned into 1°× 1° cells with a 0. 5° step. The stress fields of zone A,B and the fault zone were inverted with the FMSI method (Gephart,1990). The results show that first, the faults are mainly of strike-slip in the middle section and its adjacent area,amounting to 81. 28%,69. 23% and 72. 97% in the A,B and fault zones,respectively. Secondly,the stress inversion also indicates that the directions of maximum principal stress σ1 in the A, B,and fault zones are approximately NNW,NWW and NWW,the stress action is mainly horizontal,and strike-slip faulting is dominant in the study area. On the other hand,the direction of the principal stress field in the central Yunnan block changed from NNW to NWW,however,in the region between the Yuanmou and Pudu River faults,the azimuth of the main compressive stress shows that the north-south slip is obvious. While the direction of the main compressive stress of the Xiaojiang fault zone is nearly NW; in the east of the Xiaojiang fault,the direction of principal compressive stress is NW to NNW in the eastern Yunnan block.展开更多
This paper deals with geochemical features of gas emitted from the Hubin Springs. The Hubin Springs zone, a strong thermal emission zone, is are locatedd at the north edge of the Tianchi caldera lake. Very young depos...This paper deals with geochemical features of gas emitted from the Hubin Springs. The Hubin Springs zone, a strong thermal emission zone, is are locatedd at the north edge of the Tianchi caldera lake. Very young deposits with uncertain eruption date are found on the top area of the Tianwenfeng, which might have been formed in one of the recent eruptions or the Millennium Eruption. It is of significance to study the geochemistry features of the emitting gas from the Hubin Springs to understand the activities of the Tianchi Volcano. This paper systematically sampled and analyzed the gases emitted from the Hubin Springs and discussed their geochemistry features. The results show that there is a high content of deep derived gases, such as CO2, He, CH4 and Ar in Hubin Springs zone. The isotopic ratio of He lies between 4. 18 and 5. 95 Ra. The averaged mantle derived gas content calculated from the ^4He/2^20Ne ratio and He content reaches 67.1%. All these show that the Hubin Springs are located on a special belt of deep gases released in high intensity and large scale. The spatial distribution of Helium isotope is characterized by concavity, showing that this special area may be related to the volcanic edifice. It is highly possible that the released gases represent the residual gas samples of the latest eruptions from the Tianchi Volcano. However more detailed studies are demanded.展开更多
We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wen...We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.展开更多
In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is ...In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation： to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.展开更多
基金Project of Center for Analysis and Prediction of CEA, Key Project of State Science and Technology in the Tenth Five-year Plan (02-03-04), Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (604022), and Natural Science Founda-tion of Beijing Municipality (8022009).
文摘According to the geological structural features, Beijing and the adjacent areas can be divided into two regions of plain in the east and mountain in the west. Among the stations covered by the telemetered digital seismic station network of Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, the stations in the plain area are all borehole ones and the stations in the western mountainous region are all located on the surface bedrock. In the paper, 511 wave- form data recorded by the network from Oct. 2001 to Oct. 2004 are used in the researches for the entire Beijing region, the western mountainous region and the eastern plain area, respectively. The Q values are calculated for each area by Atkinson′s method and compared with the existed data. The reliability of the Q values and the reasons for the difference in the Q values are also discussed. Then, the source parameters and site response are inverted by the Moya′s method, in which two models are used. The first model uses the Q values, earthquakes and stations in the sub-areas and the second model uses the Q values, earthquakes and stations in the entire Beijing region. The results indicate that the source parameters and site responses obtained by two models are basically consistent with each other. It also indicates that the source parameters obtained by these methods are not affected by the size of station network.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374019)Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China (1040106).
文摘We discuss the influence of precipitation and groundwater on the deformation behavior of the Babaoshan fault of Beijing by using long-term observation data from Dahuichang station during 1970-2003. The results show that a) the pore pressure on fault zone as well as the fault deformation behavior exhibited periodically variation as precipitation changed steadily and periodically; b) the periodicity of the pore pressure of fault zones disappeared and the manner of fault deformation behavior changed when precipitation was small and/or was in aberrance. This implies that rainfall plays a key role in fault deformation behavior through changing the pore pressure of fault zones. Combining the existing results about the Babaoshan fault, it is concluded that precipitation and groundwater may adjust the stress/strain field by controlling the deformation behavior of the fault, which can provide direct observation evidence for the interaction of fluid and solid in shallow crust of the Earth.
文摘This paper quantitatively analyzed groundwater table fluctuations caused by groundwater overdraft, and probed into the possibility of drawing earthquake precursory information from groundwater table variations on the background of groundwater overdraft. Main effect factors of groundwater regime in Beijing region include groundwater extraction and rainfall. The decline of groundwater table was directly related to regional groundwater overdraft. Using the method of correlation analysis, the paper analyzed the relation between groundwater overdraft and groundwater level variations, with the aim of evaluating the effect of groundwater overdraft on water levels in observation wells and providing scientific basis for identifying seismic precursory information. The results indicate that the variations of groundwater level in slightly-affected zones of groundwater overdraft can contain some seismic precursory information, and it is possible to extract seismic precursory anomalies if proper mathematical methods are adopted to remove the trend component and annual period changes.
基金sponsored by the Scientific Research Fund of the Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,CEA
文摘On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Programof China (2006BAC13B02)the Science and Technology Special Program for Seismology, China Earthquake Administration (200708003)
文摘Seismic damage indices of structure are widely used to quantificationally analyze structural damage levels under earthquake action. In this paper, a five-storey building model and a seventeen-storey building model are established. According to seven typical indices and different earthquake-inputs, a structural damage prediction is performed, with the results showing serious uncertainty of structural damage prediction due to different indices. Understanding of this phenomenon aids the comprehension and application of the results of earthquake damage prediction.
基金The research was funded under the project of NSFC(Grant number:NSFC40234038)Joint Earthquake Science Foundation,China(Grant No.105108)
文摘Air-gun is an important active seismic source.With the development of the theory about air-gun array,the technique for air-gun array design becomes mature and is widely used in petroleum exploration and geophysics.In order to adapt it to different research domains,different combination and fired models are needed.At the present time,there are two fired models of air-gun source,namely,reinforced initial pulse and reinforced first bubble pulse.The fired time,space between single guns,frequency and resolution of the two models are different.This comparison can supply the basis for its extensive application.
基金This study was financially supported by the Joint Earthquake Science Foundation,CEA(A07058) .
文摘Recent fluid monitoring work shows that the contents of mantle-derived CO2, He and CH4 increased anomalously in 2002 and 2003. The ^3He/^4He ratio of the deep-fault-type Jinjiang hot springs increased highly anomalously in 2003, and then decreased in 2004. The ^3He/^4He ratio from the thermal-reservoir-type Changbaijulong hot springs increased slowly in 2003, and the increase continued in 2004. The mantle-derived He content of the He released from the Changbaijulong springs increased obviously in 2004. The anomaly of the released gases and the isotopic He was consistent with the trends of seismic activities in the Tianchi volcanic area between 2002 and 2004. The abnormal release of the Jinjiang hot springs apparently decreased after the seismic activities ceased in the second half of 2004, while the abnormal release from the Changbaljulong increased significantly after these seismic activities. It shows that the abnormal release of magmas-derived gases from the thermal-reservoir-type springs lags behind that of the deep-fault-type springs. These characteristics may be of great significance for identifying deep magmatic activity and predicting volcanic earthquakes in the future.
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology R&D Program (2006BAC1B03-03-01),Chinathe Joint Earthquake Science Foundation(A07058),China
文摘With waveform data of 613 earthquakes with ML ≥ 2. 5 in the middle section of the Xiaojiang fault and its adjacent area which occurred during January,1998 to September 2007,focal mechanisms were calculated by the direct wave amplitude ratio of S /P in the vertical component and their characteristics were analyzed. According to regional tectonic features of the middle section of the Xiaojiang fault and its adjacent area,the study region was partitioned into two zones with the Xiaojiang fault as the boundary,e. g. zone A and zone B (including the Xiaojiang fault). In order to research the faults stress in detail,the Xiaojiang fault zone was picked out for independent analysis. The study region was also partitioned into 1°× 1° cells with a 0. 5° step. The stress fields of zone A,B and the fault zone were inverted with the FMSI method (Gephart,1990). The results show that first, the faults are mainly of strike-slip in the middle section and its adjacent area,amounting to 81. 28%,69. 23% and 72. 97% in the A,B and fault zones,respectively. Secondly,the stress inversion also indicates that the directions of maximum principal stress σ1 in the A, B,and fault zones are approximately NNW,NWW and NWW,the stress action is mainly horizontal,and strike-slip faulting is dominant in the study area. On the other hand,the direction of the principal stress field in the central Yunnan block changed from NNW to NWW,however,in the region between the Yuanmou and Pudu River faults,the azimuth of the main compressive stress shows that the north-south slip is obvious. While the direction of the main compressive stress of the Xiaojiang fault zone is nearly NW; in the east of the Xiaojiang fault,the direction of principal compressive stress is NW to NNW in the eastern Yunnan block.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Foundation (40172033),China
文摘This paper deals with geochemical features of gas emitted from the Hubin Springs. The Hubin Springs zone, a strong thermal emission zone, is are locatedd at the north edge of the Tianchi caldera lake. Very young deposits with uncertain eruption date are found on the top area of the Tianwenfeng, which might have been formed in one of the recent eruptions or the Millennium Eruption. It is of significance to study the geochemistry features of the emitting gas from the Hubin Springs to understand the activities of the Tianchi Volcano. This paper systematically sampled and analyzed the gases emitted from the Hubin Springs and discussed their geochemistry features. The results show that there is a high content of deep derived gases, such as CO2, He, CH4 and Ar in Hubin Springs zone. The isotopic ratio of He lies between 4. 18 and 5. 95 Ra. The averaged mantle derived gas content calculated from the ^4He/2^20Ne ratio and He content reaches 67.1%. All these show that the Hubin Springs are located on a special belt of deep gases released in high intensity and large scale. The spatial distribution of Helium isotope is characterized by concavity, showing that this special area may be related to the volcanic edifice. It is highly possible that the released gases represent the residual gas samples of the latest eruptions from the Tianchi Volcano. However more detailed studies are demanded.
文摘We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth's crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. All our observation with the HRT waves demonstrate that HRT wave precursors to earthquakes indeed exist. Strong earthquakes can be predicted and short-term and impending earthquake prediction is achievable in the very near future. From all the observations, including the ones at HG station from Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we conclude that using HRT wave to predict earthquakes is feasible.
文摘In the research of projection pursuit for seismic comprehensive forecast, the algorithm of projection pursuit regression （PPR） is one of most applicable methods. But generally, the algorithm structure of the PPR is very complicated. By partial smooth regressions for many times, it has a large amount of calculation and complicated extrapolation, so it is easily trapped in partial solution. On the basis of the algorithm features of the PPR method, some solutions are given as below to aim at some shortcomings in the PPR calculation： to optimize project direction by using particle swarm optimization instead of Gauss-Newton algorithm, to simplify the optimal process with fitting ridge function by using Hermitian polynomial instead of piecewise linear regression. The overall optimal ridge function can be obtained without grouping the parameter optimization. The modeling capability and calculating accuracy of projection pursuit method are tested by means of numerical emulation technique on the basis of particle swarm optimization and Hermitian polynomial, and then applied to the seismic comprehensive forecasting models of poly-dimensional seismic time series and general disorder seismic samples. The calculation and analysis show that the projection pursuit model in this paper is characterized by simplicity, celerity and effectiveness. And this model is approved to have satisfactory effects in the real seismic comprehensive forecasting, which can be regarded as a comprehensive analysis method in seismic comprehensive forecast.
