While heavy rainfall frequently takes place in southern China during summer monsoon seasons,quantitative precipitation forecast skills are relatively poor.Therefore,detailed knowledge about the raindrop size distribut...While heavy rainfall frequently takes place in southern China during summer monsoon seasons,quantitative precipitation forecast skills are relatively poor.Therefore,detailed knowledge about the raindrop size distribution(DSD)is useful in improving the quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast.Based on the data during 2018-2022 from 86stations in a ground-based optical disdrometer measurement network,the characteristics of the DSD in Guangdong province are investigated in terms of the particle size distribution(N(D)),mass-weighted mean diameter(Dm) and other integral DSD parameters such as radar reflectivity(Z),rainfall rate(R) and liquid water content(LWC).In addition,the effects of geographical locations,weather systems(tropical cyclones,frontal systems and the summer monsoon) and precipitation types on DSD characteristics are also considered.The results are shown as follows.1) Convective precipitation has a broader N(D) and larger mean particle diameter than the stratiform precipitation,and the DSD observations in Guangdong are consistent with the three-parameter gamma distribution.The relationships between the Z and R for stratiform and convective precipitation are also derived for the province,i.e.,Z=332.34 R1.32and Z=366.26R1.42which is distinctly different from that of the Next-generation Weather Radar(NEXRAD) Z-R relationship in United States.2) In the rainy season(April-September),the Dm, R and LWC are larger than those in the dry season(OctoberMarch).Moreover the above parameters are larger,especially in mid-May,which is the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon.3) The spatial analysis of DSD shows that the coastal station observations indicate a smaller Dmand a larger normalized intercept parameter(log10Nw),suggestive of maritime-like rainfall.Dmis larger and log10Nwis smaller in the inland area,suggestive of continental-like rainfall.4) Affected by such weather systems as the tropical cyclone,frontal system and summer monsoon,the DSD shows characteristics with distinct differences.Furthermore,frontal system rainfall tends to present a continental-like rainfall,tropical cyclone rainfall tends to have a maritime-like rainfall,and summer monsoon rainfall characteristic are between maritime-and continental-like cluster(raindrop concentration and diameter are higher than continental cluster and maritime cluster,respectively.)展开更多
A second rain belt sometimes occurs ahead of a frontal rain belt in the warm sector over coastal South China,leading to heavy precipitation.We examined the differences in the mesoscale characteristics and microphysics...A second rain belt sometimes occurs ahead of a frontal rain belt in the warm sector over coastal South China,leading to heavy precipitation.We examined the differences in the mesoscale characteristics and microphysics of the frontal and warm sector rain belts that occurred in South China on May 10–13,2022.The southern rain belt occurred in an environment with favorable mesoscale conditions but weak large-scale forcing.In contrast,the northern rain belt was related to low-level horizontal shear and the surface-level front.The interaction between the enhanced southeasterly winds and the rainfall-induced cold pool promoted the persistent growth of convection along the southern rain belt.The convective cell propagated east over the coastal area,where there was a large temperature gradient.The bow-shaped echo in this region may be closely related to the rear-inflow jet.By contrast,the initial convection of the northern rain belt was triggered along the front and the region of low-level horizontal shear,with mesoscale interactions between the enhanced warm-moist southeasterly airflow and the cold dome associated with the earlier rain.The terrain blocked the movement of the cold pool,resulting in the stagnation of the frontal convective cell at an early stage.Subsequently,a meso-γ-scale vortex formed during the rapid movement of the convective cell,corresponding to an enhancement of precipitation.The representative raindrop spectra for the southern rain belt were characterized by a greater number and higher density of raindrops than the northern rain belt,even though both resulted in comparable hourly rainfalls.These results help us better understand the characteristics of double rain belts over South China.展开更多
Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers f...Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.展开更多
The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar,making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities.This study analyze...The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar,making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities.This study analyzed the characteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16,2022 in the Guangzhou region.Our findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado formation.The X-band phased array radar,with its high temporal and spatial resolution,provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric characteristics.The X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature(TVS)features in a 10-minute lead time,surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA radar.Additionally,due to its higher scanning frequency,the Xband phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals,enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado's path.The application of professional radars,in this case,provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.展开更多
We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS...We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.展开更多
The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five ca...The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons （October to March）, but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons （April to September） have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days （1 mm〈P〈 10 mm） and moderate rainy days （10 mm〈P〈 25 mm） resemble each other. The heavy rainy days （25 mm〈P〈 50 mm）, rainstorm days （50 ram〈P〈 100 mm） and downpour days （P〉 100 mm） are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased. Key words： spatiotemporal distribution; rainfall amount; rainy days; rainfall contribution rate展开更多
The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(S...The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.展开更多
During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extrem...During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs)are examined.In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency,sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR)distributions.In the region with higher LFRs,the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezing level,corresponding to more active riming processes.In addition,these ERCFs are more organized and display larger spatial coverage,which may be related to the stronger low-level wind shear and higher terrain in the region.In the region with lower LFRs,the ERCFs have lower echo tops and lower-echo centroids.However,no clear differences of the most unstable convective available potential energy(MUCAPE)exist in the ERCFs in the regions with different LFR characteristics.Regardless of the LFRs,raindrop collisional coalescence is the main process for the growth of raindrops in the ERCFs.In the ERCFs within the region with lower LFRs,the main mechanism for the rapid increase of liquid water content with decreasing altitude below 4 km is through the warm-rain processes converting cloud drops to raindrops.However,in those with higher LFRs,the liquid water content generally decreases with decreasing altitude.展开更多
An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes...An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.展开更多
In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble fo...In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent predictability.The comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we invest...Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.展开更多
This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020,using the fraction skill score(FSS)of th...This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020,using the fraction skill score(FSS)of the neighborhood spatial verification method.The results revealed that,among the 24-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 3 km,the FSS for the 0.1 mm precipitation threshold increased linearly with the lead time from 3 to 1 hour,while there was no significant improvement in other lead times.For the 5 mm precipitation threshold,the forecast skill was highest for the latest 1-hour lead time,while the FSS showed slight variation between lead times of 24 hours and 8 hours.The FSS for 10 mm and 20 mm precipitation thresholds were similar to that of 5 mm,with the difference that the best score occurred at the 2-hour lead time.Among the 6-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 1 km,the forecasts of the latest 1-hour lead time were the best choices for four precipitation thresholds.When comparing CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km,it was found that CMA-GD 3 km had better skill for forecasts of 0.1 mm and 5 mm precipitation at 2-hour and 1-hour lead times,while CMA-GD 1 km had better skill for all other forecasts,including the forecast of 20 mm precipitation nearly all lead hours(including 3-to 6-hour,and 1-hour lead times).The results suggest that the increased resolution of the model may be beneficial for precipitation forecasts in South China,especially for short-duration heavy precipitation over a longer lead hours.However,the limited sample size of this study calls for further evaluation using more cases to validate the results′generality.展开更多
Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector he...Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event caused by a convective system with multiple-rain-bands organizational mode over the western coast of south China.In the early stage,under the influence of coastal convergence and topography,convection was triggered in the coastal mountainous areas and moved north-eastwards.Nocturnal cooling induced the north winds in the inland mountainous area.A mesoscale convergence line was formed in the middle of Yangjiang city between the inland north and coastal south winds,which facilitated the developing and merging of convective storms into a linear convective band along the convergence line.This relatively long convective band presented a quasi-stationary state in the south of Mt.Ehuangzhang and Mt.Tianlu,which results in the first precipitation peak.At this stage,the convection developed to a higher level,with relatively larger raindrops,producing larger amounts of rainfall,which was probably related to the active merging of convection.In the later phase,as the environmental winds shifted,convective bands tended to move southeastwards,accompanied with the cold pools.At the same time,the multiple short convective bands were formed,which were almost parallel to the shear line,and a multiple-rain-bands organizational mode occurred.The mesoscale convergence line maintained due to the outflows of cold pools caused by precipitation in the preceding period,and then gradually moved southwards.Under the influence of the mesoscale convergence and topography,convection was continuously triggered at the southern end of the short convective bands.This back-building characteristic favored the development of the convective system.The multiple rain bands passed through the same place in a“rainband-training”form,resulting in the second peak of precipitation.The collision process was active in the low levels during this event.展开更多
During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and ...During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.展开更多
In the South China Sea, sea fog brings severe disasters every year, but forecasters have yet to implement an effective seafog forecast. To address this issue, we test a liquid-water-content-only(LWC-only) operational ...In the South China Sea, sea fog brings severe disasters every year, but forecasters have yet to implement an effective seafog forecast. To address this issue, we test a liquid-water-content-only(LWC-only) operational sea-fog prediction method based on a regional mesoscale numerical model with a horizontal resolution of about 3 km, the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES), hereafter GRAPES-3 km. GRAPES-3 km models the LWC over the sea, from which we infer the visibility that is then used to identify fog. We test the GRAPES-3 km here against measurements in 2016 and 2017 from coastal-station observations, as well as from buoy data, data from the Integrated Observation Platform for Marine Meteorology, and retrieved fog and cloud patterns from Himawari-8 satellite data. For two cases that we examine in detail, the forecast region of sea fog overlaps well with the multi-observational data within 72 h. Considering forecasting for0–24 h, GRAPES-3 km has a 2-year-average equitable threat score(ETS) of 0.20 and a Heidke skill score(HSS) of 0.335,which is about 5.6%(ETS) and 6.4%(HSS) better than our previous method(GRAPES-MOS). Moreover, the stations near the particularly foggy region around the Leizhou Peninsula have relatively high forecast scores compared to other sea areas.Overall, the results show that GRAPES-3 km can roughly predict the formation, evolution, and dissipation of sea fog on the southern China coast.展开更多
Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector （tracking radar echo by correlation） rep...Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector （tracking radar echo by correlation） represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI （constant altitude plan position indicator） mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF （cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast）. A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.展开更多
In this paper,a quantitative precipitation estimation based on the hydrometeor classification(HCA-QPE)algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar upgraded from the CINRAD/SA radar o...In this paper,a quantitative precipitation estimation based on the hydrometeor classification(HCA-QPE)algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar upgraded from the CINRAD/SA radar of China.The HCA-QPE algorithm,localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall(CSUHIDRO)algorithm,the Joint Polarization Experiment(JPOLE)algorithm,and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE(DRVC-QPE)algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30,2017 in Guangdong Province.The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction,its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5 mm h-1;and the stronger the rainfall intensity,the greater the QPE improvement.Besides,the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms.This study preliminarily evaluated the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.展开更多
In 2005,significant rainfall reinforcement and severe disaster was induced by tropical cyclone(TC) Talim after it made landfall on the east of China.Observational analyses show that it has relationship with cold air i...In 2005,significant rainfall reinforcement and severe disaster was induced by tropical cyclone(TC) Talim after it made landfall on the east of China.Observational analyses show that it has relationship with cold air intrusion.For investigating the impact of cold air intensity,we make use of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the synthesizer of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Japan regional spectral model data,to carry out numerical experiments.Results show that rainfall reinforcement occurs in all experiments.Different intensity of cold air can modify the rainfall distribution and intensity significantly.In the rainfall center,the increment maximum of rainfall is twice as large as that of the minimum.Moderate cold air intrusion may result in the strongest rainfall reinforcement.Different cold air intensity can lead to different motion of low-level convergence lines and fronts.There is a good relationship between the rainfall region and the eastern part of the front.On one hand,strong cold air weakens the TC intensity by its intrusion into the TC center and results in weak convergence and a convergent zone and a rain band shifted southward.On the other hand,weak cold air reduces the convergence and moves the convergent zone and rain band northward.Moderate cold air intrusion maintains strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence,keeping strong upward motion over certain regions.Consequently,the rain band begins to stagnate and rainfall reinforces abruptly therein.展开更多
This study uses numerical simulations to examine a case of sea fog that was observed from 20 to 22 March2011 on the southern China coast. The observation dataset includes observatory data, cloud-top temperature from M...This study uses numerical simulations to examine a case of sea fog that was observed from 20 to 22 March2011 on the southern China coast. The observation dataset includes observatory data, cloud-top temperature from MODIS, GPS sonde, and data from the Integrated Observation Platform for Marine Meteorology(IOPMM). The simulations are based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model with four distinct parameter settings.Both the observations and simulations focus on the characteristics of the fog extent, boundary layer structure, and meteorological elements near the air-sea interface. Our main results are as follows:(1) The extent of mesoscale sea fog can be well simulated when the sea surface temperature has at least 0.5 ×0.5 horizontal resolution.(2) To accurately model the vertical structure of the sea fog, particularly the surface-based inversion, vertical levels must be added in the boundary layer.(3) When these model conditions are met, the simulations faithfully reproduce the measured downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, and surface sensible heat flux during the sea fog period.展开更多
Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteris...Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075014,41975138)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2022A1515011814,2021A1515011539,2020A1515010602)+3 种基金Open Grants of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2022LASW-B15)Radar Application and Short-term Severe-weather Predictions and Warnings Technology Program(GRMCTD202002)Key Scientific and Technological Research Project of GRMC(GRMC2020Z03)Water Resource Science and Technology Innovation Program of Guangdong Province(2022-02)。
文摘While heavy rainfall frequently takes place in southern China during summer monsoon seasons,quantitative precipitation forecast skills are relatively poor.Therefore,detailed knowledge about the raindrop size distribution(DSD)is useful in improving the quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast.Based on the data during 2018-2022 from 86stations in a ground-based optical disdrometer measurement network,the characteristics of the DSD in Guangdong province are investigated in terms of the particle size distribution(N(D)),mass-weighted mean diameter(Dm) and other integral DSD parameters such as radar reflectivity(Z),rainfall rate(R) and liquid water content(LWC).In addition,the effects of geographical locations,weather systems(tropical cyclones,frontal systems and the summer monsoon) and precipitation types on DSD characteristics are also considered.The results are shown as follows.1) Convective precipitation has a broader N(D) and larger mean particle diameter than the stratiform precipitation,and the DSD observations in Guangdong are consistent with the three-parameter gamma distribution.The relationships between the Z and R for stratiform and convective precipitation are also derived for the province,i.e.,Z=332.34 R1.32and Z=366.26R1.42which is distinctly different from that of the Next-generation Weather Radar(NEXRAD) Z-R relationship in United States.2) In the rainy season(April-September),the Dm, R and LWC are larger than those in the dry season(OctoberMarch).Moreover the above parameters are larger,especially in mid-May,which is the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon.3) The spatial analysis of DSD shows that the coastal station observations indicate a smaller Dmand a larger normalized intercept parameter(log10Nw),suggestive of maritime-like rainfall.Dmis larger and log10Nwis smaller in the inland area,suggestive of continental-like rainfall.4) Affected by such weather systems as the tropical cyclone,frontal system and summer monsoon,the DSD shows characteristics with distinct differences.Furthermore,frontal system rainfall tends to present a continental-like rainfall,tropical cyclone rainfall tends to have a maritime-like rainfall,and summer monsoon rainfall characteristic are between maritime-and continental-like cluster(raindrop concentration and diameter are higher than continental cluster and maritime cluster,respectively.)
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930972,52239006,41975001)。
文摘A second rain belt sometimes occurs ahead of a frontal rain belt in the warm sector over coastal South China,leading to heavy precipitation.We examined the differences in the mesoscale characteristics and microphysics of the frontal and warm sector rain belts that occurred in South China on May 10–13,2022.The southern rain belt occurred in an environment with favorable mesoscale conditions but weak large-scale forcing.In contrast,the northern rain belt was related to low-level horizontal shear and the surface-level front.The interaction between the enhanced southeasterly winds and the rainfall-induced cold pool promoted the persistent growth of convection along the southern rain belt.The convective cell propagated east over the coastal area,where there was a large temperature gradient.The bow-shaped echo in this region may be closely related to the rear-inflow jet.By contrast,the initial convection of the northern rain belt was triggered along the front and the region of low-level horizontal shear,with mesoscale interactions between the enhanced warm-moist southeasterly airflow and the cold dome associated with the earlier rain.The terrain blocked the movement of the cold pool,resulting in the stagnation of the frontal convective cell at an early stage.Subsequently,a meso-γ-scale vortex formed during the rapid movement of the convective cell,corresponding to an enhancement of precipitation.The representative raindrop spectra for the southern rain belt were characterized by a greater number and higher density of raindrops than the northern rain belt,even though both resulted in comparable hourly rainfalls.These results help us better understand the characteristics of double rain belts over South China.
基金Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Provincial Water Resources Department (2022-01)Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022A1515011870)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team of Tropical Meteorology (CMA2023ZD08)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2022LASW-B18)。
文摘Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon season.The updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.
基金National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3004101)Science and Technology Projects of Guangzhou (2023B04J0704,2023B04J0232)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2022A15150118141)Key Scientific and Technological Research Project of Guangzhou Meteorological Society (Z202201)。
文摘The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar,making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities.This study analyzed the characteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16,2022 in the Guangzhou region.Our findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado formation.The X-band phased array radar,with its high temporal and spatial resolution,provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric characteristics.The X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature(TVS)features in a 10-minute lead time,surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA radar.Additionally,due to its higher scanning frequency,the Xband phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals,enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado's path.The application of professional radars,in this case,provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2016A030313140)Project 973(2015CB452802)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou City(201604020012)
文摘We first analyzed GPS precipitable water vapor(GPS/PWV) available from a ground-based GPS observation network in Guangdong from 1 August 2009 to 27 August 2012 and then developed a method of quality control before GPS/PWV data is assimilated into the GRAPES 3DVAR system. This method can reject the outliers effectively. After establishing the criterion for quality control, we did three numerical experiments to investigate the impact on the precipitation forecast with and without the quality-controlled GPS/PWV data before they are assimilated into the system.In the numerical experiments, two precipitation cases(on 6 to 7 May, 2010 and 27 to 28 April, 2012 respectively) that occurred in the annually first raining season of Guangdong were selected. The results indicated that after quality control,only the GPS/PWV data that deviates little from the NCEP/PWV data can be assimilated into the system, has reasonable adjustment of the initial water vapor above Guangdong, and eventually improves the intensity and location of 24-h precipitation forecast significantly.
基金National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2015CB452802)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475102,41705020,41705120)+3 种基金Guangdong Province Science and Technology Project(2015B020217001)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2016A030313141)Opening Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2016LASW-B18)Basic Scientific Research Business Project of CAMS(2016Z005)
文摘The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons （October to March）, but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons （April to September） have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days （1 mm〈P〈 10 mm） and moderate rainy days （10 mm〈P〈 25 mm） resemble each other. The heavy rainy days （25 mm〈P〈 50 mm）, rainstorm days （50 ram〈P〈 100 mm） and downpour days （P〉 100 mm） are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased. Key words： spatiotemporal distribution; rainfall amount; rainy days; rainfall contribution rate
基金National Key Research and Development Project(2019YFEO110100)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975136)+5 种基金the Intelligent Gridded Forecasting Team of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMCTD202004)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011118)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(202103000030)the Innovation and Development Project of the China Meteorological Administration(CXF2021Z009)the Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GMRC2020M06)the Open Fund of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction(J202006)。
文摘The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.
基金primarily supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42025501,41905019,and 61827901)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2018YFC1506404 and Grant 2017YFC1501703)。
文摘During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs)are examined.In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency,sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR)distributions.In the region with higher LFRs,the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezing level,corresponding to more active riming processes.In addition,these ERCFs are more organized and display larger spatial coverage,which may be related to the stronger low-level wind shear and higher terrain in the region.In the region with lower LFRs,the ERCFs have lower echo tops and lower-echo centroids.However,no clear differences of the most unstable convective available potential energy(MUCAPE)exist in the ERCFs in the regions with different LFR characteristics.Regardless of the LFRs,raindrop collisional coalescence is the main process for the growth of raindrops in the ERCFs.In the ERCFs within the region with lower LFRs,the main mechanism for the rapid increase of liquid water content with decreasing altitude below 4 km is through the warm-rain processes converting cloud drops to raindrops.However,in those with higher LFRs,the liquid water content generally decreases with decreasing altitude.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075014)Science and Technology Key Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020Z02,GRMCGS202101)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(2021A1515011539)Forecasters Project of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2019-080)。
文摘An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502000)。
文摘In south China, warm-sector rainstorms are significantly different from the traditional frontal rainstorms due to complex mechanism, which brings great challenges to their forecast. In this study, based on ensemble forecasting, the high-resolution mesoscale numerical forecast model WRF was used to investigate the effect of initial errors on a warmsector rainstorm and a frontal rainstorm under the same circulation in south China, respectively. We analyzed the sensitivity of forecast errors to the initial errors and their evolution characteristics for the warm-sector and the frontal rainstorm. Additionally, the difference of the predictability was compared via adjusting the initial values of the GOOD member and the BAD member. Compared with the frontal rainstorm, the warm-sector rainstorm was more sensitive to initial error, which increased faster in the warm-sector. Furthermore, the magnitude of error in the warm-sector rainstorm was obviously larger than that of the frontal rainstorm, while the spatial scale of the error was smaller. Similarly, both types of the rainstorm were limited by practical predictability and inherent predictability, while the nonlinear increase characteristics occurred to be more distinct in the warm-sector rainstorm, resulting in the lower inherent predictability.The comparison between the warm-sector rainstorm and the frontal rainstorm revealed that the forecast field was closer to the real situation derived from more accurate initial errors, but only the increase rate in the frontal rainstorm was restrained evidently.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,41905047,42030610)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M01)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)。
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.
基金China Meteorological Administration Innovation Development Special Project(CXFZ2022J006)Guangzhou Science and Technology Plan Project(202103000030)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Review and Summary Special Project(FPZJ2023-091)Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Planning Project of China(202103000030)。
文摘This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle(RUC)for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020,using the fraction skill score(FSS)of the neighborhood spatial verification method.The results revealed that,among the 24-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 3 km,the FSS for the 0.1 mm precipitation threshold increased linearly with the lead time from 3 to 1 hour,while there was no significant improvement in other lead times.For the 5 mm precipitation threshold,the forecast skill was highest for the latest 1-hour lead time,while the FSS showed slight variation between lead times of 24 hours and 8 hours.The FSS for 10 mm and 20 mm precipitation thresholds were similar to that of 5 mm,with the difference that the best score occurred at the 2-hour lead time.Among the 6-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 1 km,the forecasts of the latest 1-hour lead time were the best choices for four precipitation thresholds.When comparing CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km,it was found that CMA-GD 3 km had better skill for forecasts of 0.1 mm and 5 mm precipitation at 2-hour and 1-hour lead times,while CMA-GD 1 km had better skill for all other forecasts,including the forecast of 20 mm precipitation nearly all lead hours(including 3-to 6-hour,and 1-hour lead times).The results suggest that the increased resolution of the model may be beneficial for precipitation forecasts in South China,especially for short-duration heavy precipitation over a longer lead hours.However,the limited sample size of this study calls for further evaluation using more cases to validate the results′generality.
基金The Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2020LASW-B04)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41905047)+3 种基金Guangdong Province Important Area Research and Development Plan(2020B1111200001)Operation-oriented Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2022M31)The Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971)。
文摘Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event caused by a convective system with multiple-rain-bands organizational mode over the western coast of south China.In the early stage,under the influence of coastal convergence and topography,convection was triggered in the coastal mountainous areas and moved north-eastwards.Nocturnal cooling induced the north winds in the inland mountainous area.A mesoscale convergence line was formed in the middle of Yangjiang city between the inland north and coastal south winds,which facilitated the developing and merging of convective storms into a linear convective band along the convergence line.This relatively long convective band presented a quasi-stationary state in the south of Mt.Ehuangzhang and Mt.Tianlu,which results in the first precipitation peak.At this stage,the convection developed to a higher level,with relatively larger raindrops,producing larger amounts of rainfall,which was probably related to the active merging of convection.In the later phase,as the environmental winds shifted,convective bands tended to move southeastwards,accompanied with the cold pools.At the same time,the multiple short convective bands were formed,which were almost parallel to the shear line,and a multiple-rain-bands organizational mode occurred.The mesoscale convergence line maintained due to the outflows of cold pools caused by precipitation in the preceding period,and then gradually moved southwards.Under the influence of the mesoscale convergence and topography,convection was continuously triggered at the southern end of the short convective bands.This back-building characteristic favored the development of the convective system.The multiple rain bands passed through the same place in a“rainband-training”form,resulting in the second peak of precipitation.The collision process was active in the low levels during this event.
基金National key research and development program of China(2022YFC3003902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,42075086,41975138)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971,2021A1515011415,2019A1515010814)。
文摘During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.
基金supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41675021, 41605006 and 41675019)the Meteorological Sciences Research Project (Grant No. GRMC2017M04)the Innovation Team of Forecasting Technology for Typhoon and Marine Meteorology of the Weather Bureau of Guangdong Province
文摘In the South China Sea, sea fog brings severe disasters every year, but forecasters have yet to implement an effective seafog forecast. To address this issue, we test a liquid-water-content-only(LWC-only) operational sea-fog prediction method based on a regional mesoscale numerical model with a horizontal resolution of about 3 km, the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES), hereafter GRAPES-3 km. GRAPES-3 km models the LWC over the sea, from which we infer the visibility that is then used to identify fog. We test the GRAPES-3 km here against measurements in 2016 and 2017 from coastal-station observations, as well as from buoy data, data from the Integrated Observation Platform for Marine Meteorology, and retrieved fog and cloud patterns from Himawari-8 satellite data. For two cases that we examine in detail, the forecast region of sea fog overlaps well with the multi-observational data within 72 h. Considering forecasting for0–24 h, GRAPES-3 km has a 2-year-average equitable threat score(ETS) of 0.20 and a Heidke skill score(HSS) of 0.335,which is about 5.6%(ETS) and 6.4%(HSS) better than our previous method(GRAPES-MOS). Moreover, the stations near the particularly foggy region around the Leizhou Peninsula have relatively high forecast scores compared to other sea areas.Overall, the results show that GRAPES-3 km can roughly predict the formation, evolution, and dissipation of sea fog on the southern China coast.
基金This study was provided by Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province under Grant No. 5001121the China Meteorological Administration under Grant Nos. CMATG2005Y05 and CMATG2008Z10the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau under Grant Nos. 2007A2 and GRMC2007Z03
文摘Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvements in heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management. Because the TREC vector （tracking radar echo by correlation） represents only the instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach using derived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfall forecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. For longer lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should be considered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecast lead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors with model-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivity patterns in 3 km height CAPPI （constant altitude plan position indicator） mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering winds were provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF （cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast）. A similarity index was designed to determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in the extrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds and radar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that the new algorithm provides a better forecast.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1404700,2018YFC1506905)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2018LASW-B09,2018LASW-B08)+7 种基金Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province,China(2019B020208016,2018B020207012,2017B020244002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375038)Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China(GHY201506006)2017-2019Meteorological Forecasting Key Technology Development Special Grant(YBGJXM(2017)02-05)Guangdong Science&Technology Plan Project(2015A020217008)Zhejiang Province Major Science and Technology Special Project(2017C03035)Scientific and Technological Research Projects of Guangdong Meteorological Service(GRMC2018M10)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2018A030313218)
文摘In this paper,a quantitative precipitation estimation based on the hydrometeor classification(HCA-QPE)algorithm was proposed for the first operational S band dual-polarization radar upgraded from the CINRAD/SA radar of China.The HCA-QPE algorithm,localized Colorado State University-Hydrometeor Identification of Rainfall(CSUHIDRO)algorithm,the Joint Polarization Experiment(JPOLE)algorithm,and the dynamic Z-R relationships based on variational correction QPE(DRVC-QPE)algorithm were evaluated with the rainfall events from March 1 to October 30,2017 in Guangdong Province.The results indicated that even though the HCA-QPE algorithm did not use the observed rainfall data for correction,its estimation accuracy was better than that of the DRVC-QPE algorithm when the rainfall rate was greater than 5 mm h-1;and the stronger the rainfall intensity,the greater the QPE improvement.Besides,the HCA-QPE algorithm worked better than the localized CSU-HIDRO and JPOLE algorithms.This study preliminarily evaluated the improved accuracy of QPE by a dual-polarization radar system modified from CINRAD-SA radar.
基金Meteorological Technology Special Opening Projects of Zhejiang Province (kf2010002)National Public Welfare Special Project of China (GYHY201206006)+2 种基金Planning Project for Key National Fundamental Research (2009CB421504)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41105062,40675033)Meteorological Technology Planning Projects of Zhejiang Province (2011ZD01)
文摘In 2005,significant rainfall reinforcement and severe disaster was induced by tropical cyclone(TC) Talim after it made landfall on the east of China.Observational analyses show that it has relationship with cold air intrusion.For investigating the impact of cold air intensity,we make use of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the synthesizer of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Japan regional spectral model data,to carry out numerical experiments.Results show that rainfall reinforcement occurs in all experiments.Different intensity of cold air can modify the rainfall distribution and intensity significantly.In the rainfall center,the increment maximum of rainfall is twice as large as that of the minimum.Moderate cold air intrusion may result in the strongest rainfall reinforcement.Different cold air intensity can lead to different motion of low-level convergence lines and fronts.There is a good relationship between the rainfall region and the eastern part of the front.On one hand,strong cold air weakens the TC intensity by its intrusion into the TC center and results in weak convergence and a convergent zone and a rain band shifted southward.On the other hand,weak cold air reduces the convergence and moves the convergent zone and rain band northward.Moderate cold air intrusion maintains strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence,keeping strong upward motion over certain regions.Consequently,the rain band begins to stagnate and rainfall reinforces abruptly therein.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4127502541175013)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Plan Project(2008030303072,2012A061400012)Meteorological Sciences Research Project(2013B06,2013Q04,2014B08)Early Warning and Forecasting Technology for Marine Meteorology of the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau
文摘This study uses numerical simulations to examine a case of sea fog that was observed from 20 to 22 March2011 on the southern China coast. The observation dataset includes observatory data, cloud-top temperature from MODIS, GPS sonde, and data from the Integrated Observation Platform for Marine Meteorology(IOPMM). The simulations are based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model with four distinct parameter settings.Both the observations and simulations focus on the characteristics of the fog extent, boundary layer structure, and meteorological elements near the air-sea interface. Our main results are as follows:(1) The extent of mesoscale sea fog can be well simulated when the sea surface temperature has at least 0.5 ×0.5 horizontal resolution.(2) To accurately model the vertical structure of the sea fog, particularly the surface-based inversion, vertical levels must be added in the boundary layer.(3) When these model conditions are met, the simulations faithfully reproduce the measured downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, and surface sensible heat flux during the sea fog period.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507402)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875168,U1811464)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(201605131033247)。
文摘Warm-sector torrential rainfall(WSTR)events that occur in the annually first rainy season in south China are characterized by high rainfall intensity and low radar echo centroids.To understand the synoptic characteristics related to these features,16 WSTR events that occurred in 2013-2017 were examined with another 16 squall line(SL)events occurred during the same period as references.Composite analysis derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data indicated the importance of the deep layer of warm and moist air for WSTR events.The most significant difference between WSTR and SL events lies in their low-level convergence and lifting;for WSTR events,the low-level convergence and lifting is much shallower with comparable or stronger intensity.The trumpet-shaped topography to the north of the WSTR centers is favorable for the development of such shallow convergences in WSTR events.Results in this study will provide references for future studies to improve the predictability of WSTR.
