This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that dome...This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.展开更多
Latin American (LA) economies today are at a challenging juncture as key global conditions have aligned in very exceptional ways, representing a double tailwind for many countries of the region. These countries must f...Latin American (LA) economies today are at a challenging juncture as key global conditions have aligned in very exceptional ways, representing a double tailwind for many countries of the region. These countries must figure out how to best respond to a sustained period of unusually easy foreign financing conditions and large capital inflows. At the same time, they face high world prices for their commodity exports, another source of abundance that is likely to be persistent but not permanent. Such conditions are, of course, in many展开更多
The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected. Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often...The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected. Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often affect several countries at the same time. In the past, though, crises have been largely limited to specific regions or types of economies, the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, Latin America in the mid-1990s, Asia in the late 1990s, and the emerging market economies of the early 2000s. The recent crisis has been unusual in its global nature, affecting countries with a speed and virulence not seen since the Great Depression, with major advance countries and countries recently integrating with the European Union (EU) most affected.展开更多
The recent financial crisis in mature markets has put the role of central banks in financial stability in the spotlight. In the large advanced economies, central banks played an active role to prevent the collapse of ...The recent financial crisis in mature markets has put the role of central banks in financial stability in the spotlight. In the large advanced economies, central banks played an active role to prevent the collapse of their financial systems. Central banks initially provided aggregate liquidity in money markets without expanding their balance sheets as they were able to mop up excess of liquidity. Later, they granted large amounts of financial support to individual illiquid and even insolvent, banks and reserve展开更多
As early as 2005,analysts and academics ecame concerned bout the prospects for,and sustainability of,growing current account imbalances in the world’s largest economies. In the United States, low savings rates and gr...As early as 2005,analysts and academics ecame concerned bout the prospects for,and sustainability of,growing current account imbalances in the world’s largest economies. In the United States, low savings rates and growing household consumption,fueled in part by what later turned out to be a bubble in the property market,sucked in imports展开更多
The eyes of the world are locked on Europe these days. This is understandable. After all, the storm in the euro area casts a long shadow over the entire global economy. But the IMF has 187 members, and my job is to se...The eyes of the world are locked on Europe these days. This is understandable. After all, the storm in the euro area casts a long shadow over the entire global economy. But the IMF has 187 members, and my job is to serve each and every one of them as effectively as possible. Like so many in the展开更多
In this paper we applied the technique of Self Organizing Map (SOM) to segment individuals based on their credit information. SOM is an unsupervised machine learning method that reduces data complexity and dimensional...In this paper we applied the technique of Self Organizing Map (SOM) to segment individuals based on their credit information. SOM is an unsupervised machine learning method that reduces data complexity and dimensionality while keeping sits original topology, which is superior to other dimension reduction methods especially when features in data have unclear nonlinear relations. Through this method we provide more clear and intuitive segmentation that other traditional methods cannot achieve.展开更多
Building tax capacity is central to the role of government in achieving the sustainable development goals,addressing climate change,and ensuring debt sustainability.Despite progress in revenue mobilization,there is st...Building tax capacity is central to the role of government in achieving the sustainable development goals,addressing climate change,and ensuring debt sustainability.Despite progress in revenue mobilization,there is still a large unmet tax potential in low-income developing countries.Increasing tax capacity requires a firm commitment to building institutions that govern the tax system and manage tax reform,and to improving the design of core taxes.To enhance understanding,this article provides a synopsis of why improving tax capacity is important and contains insights on trends in revenue mobilization,how to strengthen tax policy and the role of supporting institutions.Furthermore,it explores the importance of a sound legal framework for tax certainty,which plays a crucial role in shaping investment choices and can significantly affect economic growth.展开更多
We construct a daily liquidity index of China’s government bond market using transaction data from the national interbank market during 2001–2020.The index is a composite of popular price-based and quantity-based me...We construct a daily liquidity index of China’s government bond market using transaction data from the national interbank market during 2001–2020.The index is a composite of popular price-based and quantity-based metrics of liquidity.The composite indices,ob-tained by averaging across different metrics and by applying the principal component analysis,respectively,both point to a better liquidity condition after 2010.Market liquidity swings appear to be highly correlated with domestic funding liquidity and financial mar-ket volatility,but display fewer correlations with global macrofinan-cial indicators.Our findings suggest that the further deepening of the government bond market would support domestic financial stability and monetary operations down the road.展开更多
This paper uses both macro level and sectoral data to study the sources and pattern of China＇s impressive economic growth over the last 25 years. Extending the growth accounting framework, we show that widening inequ...This paper uses both macro level and sectoral data to study the sources and pattern of China＇s impressive economic growth over the last 25 years. Extending the growth accounting framework, we show that widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity are to a large extent rooted in China＇s growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. We find that growth of investment in the industn＇al sector has been the single most important factor driving gross domestic product and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rura-urban income inequality. Continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth, and widen the rural-urban income gap. However, reducing subsidies to industry and investment, encouraging the development of the services industry, and reducing barriers to labor mobility would result in a more balanced growth and a substantial reduction in the income gap between rural and urban residents.展开更多
China ＇s sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and the import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggre...China ＇s sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and the import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher demand and price elasticities. Sectoral differences in these parameters are also very wide. All this suggests greater caution should be exercised when using historical data to simulate the response of China＇s economy to external shocks and exchange rate changes. Analyses based on models with estimated coefficients largely representative of China in the 1980s and 1990s are likely to turn out to be wrong, perhaps even dramatically.展开更多
China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and ...China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches,making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable.We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy.The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies.We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock,such as COVID-19 might pose.In our baseline calibration,using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors,the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.展开更多
In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve...In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.展开更多
With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China w...With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan.展开更多
Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a flo...Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.展开更多
Premised on international good practices,the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool(TADAT)provides a standardized and objective framework for conducting an evidence-based and outcome-focused assessment of the k...Premised on international good practices,the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool(TADAT)provides a standardized and objective framework for conducting an evidence-based and outcome-focused assessment of the key strengths and weaknesses of a country’s tax administration system.TADAT is a global tool that applies to any country’s system of tax administration.The results of a TADAT assessment provide country authorities,supported by their capacity development partners,with a baseline to strengthen or develop,and monitor tax administration reform strategies and work plans.展开更多
文摘This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.
文摘Latin American (LA) economies today are at a challenging juncture as key global conditions have aligned in very exceptional ways, representing a double tailwind for many countries of the region. These countries must figure out how to best respond to a sustained period of unusually easy foreign financing conditions and large capital inflows. At the same time, they face high world prices for their commodity exports, another source of abundance that is likely to be persistent but not permanent. Such conditions are, of course, in many
文摘The recent crisis was unusual in its speed and breadth and the type of countries affected. Systemic crises, situations of significant stress in the financial sector, followed by significant policy interventions, often affect several countries at the same time. In the past, though, crises have been largely limited to specific regions or types of economies, the Nordic countries in the early 1990s, Latin America in the mid-1990s, Asia in the late 1990s, and the emerging market economies of the early 2000s. The recent crisis has been unusual in its global nature, affecting countries with a speed and virulence not seen since the Great Depression, with major advance countries and countries recently integrating with the European Union (EU) most affected.
文摘The recent financial crisis in mature markets has put the role of central banks in financial stability in the spotlight. In the large advanced economies, central banks played an active role to prevent the collapse of their financial systems. Central banks initially provided aggregate liquidity in money markets without expanding their balance sheets as they were able to mop up excess of liquidity. Later, they granted large amounts of financial support to individual illiquid and even insolvent, banks and reserve
文摘As early as 2005,analysts and academics ecame concerned bout the prospects for,and sustainability of,growing current account imbalances in the world’s largest economies. In the United States, low savings rates and growing household consumption,fueled in part by what later turned out to be a bubble in the property market,sucked in imports
文摘The eyes of the world are locked on Europe these days. This is understandable. After all, the storm in the euro area casts a long shadow over the entire global economy. But the IMF has 187 members, and my job is to serve each and every one of them as effectively as possible. Like so many in the
文摘In this paper we applied the technique of Self Organizing Map (SOM) to segment individuals based on their credit information. SOM is an unsupervised machine learning method that reduces data complexity and dimensionality while keeping sits original topology, which is superior to other dimension reduction methods especially when features in data have unclear nonlinear relations. Through this method we provide more clear and intuitive segmentation that other traditional methods cannot achieve.
文摘Building tax capacity is central to the role of government in achieving the sustainable development goals,addressing climate change,and ensuring debt sustainability.Despite progress in revenue mobilization,there is still a large unmet tax potential in low-income developing countries.Increasing tax capacity requires a firm commitment to building institutions that govern the tax system and manage tax reform,and to improving the design of core taxes.To enhance understanding,this article provides a synopsis of why improving tax capacity is important and contains insights on trends in revenue mobilization,how to strengthen tax policy and the role of supporting institutions.Furthermore,it explores the importance of a sound legal framework for tax certainty,which plays a crucial role in shaping investment choices and can significantly affect economic growth.
文摘We construct a daily liquidity index of China’s government bond market using transaction data from the national interbank market during 2001–2020.The index is a composite of popular price-based and quantity-based metrics of liquidity.The composite indices,ob-tained by averaging across different metrics and by applying the principal component analysis,respectively,both point to a better liquidity condition after 2010.Market liquidity swings appear to be highly correlated with domestic funding liquidity and financial mar-ket volatility,but display fewer correlations with global macrofinan-cial indicators.Our findings suggest that the further deepening of the government bond market would support domestic financial stability and monetary operations down the road.
文摘This paper uses both macro level and sectoral data to study the sources and pattern of China＇s impressive economic growth over the last 25 years. Extending the growth accounting framework, we show that widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity are to a large extent rooted in China＇s growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. We find that growth of investment in the industn＇al sector has been the single most important factor driving gross domestic product and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rura-urban income inequality. Continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth, and widen the rural-urban income gap. However, reducing subsidies to industry and investment, encouraging the development of the services industry, and reducing barriers to labor mobility would result in a more balanced growth and a substantial reduction in the income gap between rural and urban residents.
文摘China ＇s sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and the import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher demand and price elasticities. Sectoral differences in these parameters are also very wide. All this suggests greater caution should be exercised when using historical data to simulate the response of China＇s economy to external shocks and exchange rate changes. Analyses based on models with estimated coefficients largely representative of China in the 1980s and 1990s are likely to turn out to be wrong, perhaps even dramatically.
文摘China s real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion.This paper argues,however,that even before the COVID-19 shock,a decades-long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply-demand mismatches,making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable.We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply-demand conditions in the fast-moving Chinese economy.The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies.We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock,such as COVID-19 might pose.In our baseline calibration,using input-output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors,the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5-10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.
文摘In April 2013,the Bank of Japan(BOJ)introduced an inflation target of 2%with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth.But due to lower international oil prices it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures.Hence,in February 2016,the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through the purchase of long-term Japanese government bonds(JGB).The BOJ had previously only purchased short-term government bonds,a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs.On the one hand,banks reduced the number of government bonds they purchased because short-term bond yields had become negative.The interest rates of long-term government bond up to 15 years even became negative.On the other hand,bank loans to corporates did not increase,due to Japanese economy’s vertical investment-saving(IS)curve.The purpose of this paper is to show that the monetary policy through implementation of the zero interest rate and more recently through the negative interest rate could not help the Japanese economy to recover from the long-lasting recession and these are not the remedy.It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward rather than vertical.That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest even if interest rates are set too low.Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy.The paper also explains why the BOJ has to reduce its 2%inflation target in the present low oil price era.
基金the International Monetary Fund,Princeton Universitythe Reserve Bank of Australia
文摘With China＇s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-2003 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was causing sharp increases in global prices. This paper uses several econometric techniques to assess the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the USA and Japan. Only limited empirical evidence at the aggregate level is found for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the USA and Japan. However, there is some evidence that inflation in the USA has an impact on Chinese inflation. The results seem consistent with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan being concerned about inflation and, hence, adjusting policy such that inflation shocks have no significant effect on overall inflation. Recent Chinese price rises are unlikely to have a material effect on the USA or Japan.
文摘Thepaper considers the optimal transition path for China＇s exchange rate regime. How can China successfully make the shift from the current dollar peg regime to a more desirable regime, whether a basket peg or a floating regime？ To answer this question, we develop a dynamic small open economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies based on a basket peg or a floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies relative to maintaining the dollar peg regime. Two main results are derived from the quantitative analysis using Chinese data from 1999Q1 to 2010Q4. First, following a gradual adjustment to a basket peg regime is the most appropriate path for China to take, with minimal welfare losses associated with the shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to the basket peg is the second best solution, and is superior to a sudden shift to floating because the monetary authority can efficiently determine optimal weights to attach to currencies in the basket to achieve policy goals once they adopt a basket peg regime.
文摘Premised on international good practices,the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool(TADAT)provides a standardized and objective framework for conducting an evidence-based and outcome-focused assessment of the key strengths and weaknesses of a country’s tax administration system.TADAT is a global tool that applies to any country’s system of tax administration.The results of a TADAT assessment provide country authorities,supported by their capacity development partners,with a baseline to strengthen or develop,and monitor tax administration reform strategies and work plans.
