The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan regio...The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.展开更多
The cloud type product 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR based on CloudSat and CALIPSO from June 2006 to May 2017 is used to examine the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of eight cloud typ...The cloud type product 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR based on CloudSat and CALIPSO from June 2006 to May 2017 is used to examine the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of eight cloud types(high cloud, altostratus, altocumulus, stratus, stratocumulus, cumulus, nimbostratus, and deep convection) and three phases(ice,mixed, and water) in the Arctic. Possible reasons for the observed interannual variability are also discussed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) More water clouds occur on the Atlantic side, and more ice clouds occur over continents.(2)The average spatial and seasonal distributions of cloud types show three patterns: high clouds and most cumuliform clouds are concentrated in low-latitude locations and peak in summer;altostratus and nimbostratus are concentrated over and around continents and are less abundant in summer;stratocumulus and stratus are concentrated near the inner Arctic and peak during spring and autumn.(3) Regional averaged interannual frequencies of ice clouds and altostratus clouds significantly decrease, while those of water clouds, altocumulus, and cumulus clouds increase significantly.(4) Significant features of the linear trends of cloud frequencies are mainly located over ocean areas.(5) The monthly water cloud frequency anomalies are positively correlated with air temperature in most of the troposphere, while those for ice clouds are negatively correlated.(6) The decrease in altostratus clouds is associated with the weakening of the Arctic front due to Arctic warming, while increased water vapor transport into the Arctic and higher atmospheric instability lead to more cumulus and altocumulus clouds.展开更多
Based on the significant weather report,CG lightning,composite radar reflectivity,and ERA5 reanalysis data,we first studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of four types(only severe convective wind(SCW...Based on the significant weather report,CG lightning,composite radar reflectivity,and ERA5 reanalysis data,we first studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of four types(only severe convective wind(SCW);SCW and hail;SCW and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR);and SCW,hail,and SDHR)of convective weather events related to SCW during the warm season(May to September)from 2011 to 2018 in North China.Second,severe convective cases producing SCW were selected to statistically analyze the initiation,decay,lifetime,and organizational characteristics of convective systems.Finally,using ERA5 reanalysis data and conventional surface observation data,preconvective soundings were constructed to explore the differences in environmental conditions for initiating convective systems between SCW and non-SCW.The results indicate that mixed-type of SCW and SDHR events occur more frequently over plains,while other types of convective weather occur more frequently over mountains.The frequency peak of SCW occurs in June,while mixed convective weather peaks in July.The initiation time of convective systems is concentrated between 1000 and 1300 BST,with a peak at 1200 BST.Over mountains,the daily peaks of ordinary and significant SCW generally occur at 1700-1800 BST and 1600-1700 BST,respectively,while over plains,the peak of ordinary SCW typically lags behind that of mountains by 1-2 hours.Additionally,SCW systems are mainly initiated over mountains,with most lifetimes lasting 7–13 hours.Nonlinear convective systems produce the most SCW events,followed by trailing-stratiform convective systems.The convective available potential energy(CAPE),downdraft convective available potential energy,and the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa can all distinguish between SCW systems and non-SCW systems occurring over plains.Compared to non-SCW convective systems,SCW convective systems over mountains are more likely to occur in environments with less precipitable water,while SCW convective systems over plains are more likely to occur in environments with higher CAPE and stronger deep-layer wind shear.展开更多
Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variat...Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.展开更多
Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the mos...Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.展开更多
The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency ban...The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the ...Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.展开更多
The rainfall processes during the formation of tropical cyclone(TC) Durian(2001) were investigated quantitatively using the three-dimensional(3 D) WRF-based precipitation equation. The rain rate(PS) decreased slightly...The rainfall processes during the formation of tropical cyclone(TC) Durian(2001) were investigated quantitatively using the three-dimensional(3 D) WRF-based precipitation equation. The rain rate(PS) decreased slightly as the TC approached to formation, and then increased as Durian began to intensify. The rate of moisture-related processes(QWV) in the equation contributed around 80% to PSbefore TC genesis, and made more contribution during and after TC genesis. The rate of hydrometeor-related processes(QCM) contributed about 20% before TC formation, followed by less contribution during and after TC formation. QWVwere dominated by the 3 D moisture flux advection rate(QWVA), while the surface evaporation rate(QWVE) also played an important role. Just before TC genesis, moisture from QWVAand QWVEhelped the local atmosphere moisten(negative QWVL). QCMwere determined by the 3 D hydrometeor advection rates(QCLAand QCIA) and the local change rates of hydrometeors(QCLLand QCIL). During TC formation, QCMlargely decreased and then reactivated as Durian began to intensify, accompanied by the development of TC cloud. Both the height and the strength of the net latent heating center associated with microphysical processes generally lowered before and during TC genesis, resulting mainly from lessening deposition and condensation. The downward shift of the net latent heating center induced a more bottom-heavy upward mass flux profile, suggesting to promote lower-tropospheric convergence in a shallower layer, vorticity amplification and TC spin-up.展开更多
Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic...Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic circulations and maintenance mechanisms between different PHRE types.There are two main types of PHREs:one is characterized by a rain belt west of 106°E over the SCB(WSB-PHREs),and the other features a rain belt east of 106°E over the SCB(ESB-PHREs).In total,there are 18 ESB-PHREs and 10 WSB-PHREs during the study period.Overall,the rain belts of WSB-PHREs are along the terrain distribution east of the Tibetan Plateau,while the precipitation intensity of ESB-PHREs is stronger.For the two types of PHREs,the shortwave trough over the SCB and the western Pacific subtropical high act as their favorable background environments,particularly for ESB-PHREs.The water vapor of WSB-PHREs is mainly transported from the South China Sea,whereas for ESB-PHREs the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal are their main moisture sources.The composite vorticity budgets of southwest vortices during their mature stage indicate that the convergence effect is a dominant factor for maintaining the two types of PHREs,and the strong vertical vorticity advection is also favorable,but the relative contribution of vertical advection is larger for WSB-PHREs.展开更多
Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for...Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.展开更多
On the basis of the general potential vorticity theorem(GPV),a new wave-activity relation is derived in an ageostrophic and nonhydrostatic dynamic framework.When the Reynolds average is taken,the wave-activity relatio...On the basis of the general potential vorticity theorem(GPV),a new wave-activity relation is derived in an ageostrophic and nonhydrostatic dynamic framework.When the Reynolds average is taken,the wave-activity relation shares an exchange term with the equation of the basic-state GPV.Thus,the two equations are capable of presenting the dynamic process of the wave-basic flow interaction.Unlike the E-P flux theory which can only be used in large-scale atmosphere,the corresponding derivation provides a useful tool to analyze the feedback of waves to basic states and the forcing of basic states to waves simultaneously,and it can be used in mesoscale systems,such as heavy rainfall processes.The theory was initially applied to the landfalling Typhoon Mujigae(2015) by assigning the scalar φ to the generalized potential temperature(GPT).The results showed that the newly-derived wave-activity density is able to describe the wave activities associated with strong precipitation in Typhoon Mujigae(2015),including the eyewall and spiral rainbands.However,the interaction between the basic-state vortex and mesoscale waves denoted by the exchange term between basic-state GPV and wave-activity density mainly occurs in the eyewall in Typhoon Mujigae(2015).A comparison of the exchange term with other forcing terms in the newly-derived wave-activity relation indicates that the basic state-wave interaction plays a significant role in enhancing wave activities in the high-precipitation eyewall.By a magnitude analysis of the interaction term,it is found that the strong interaction between basic-state vortex and mesoscale waves is mainly attributed to two factors:the vertical vorticity intensity of the basic-state vortex and the averaged perturbation advection of perturbation GPT which is an exchange between the basic-state GPT and perturbation GPT.展开更多
In this study,the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer-to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks(RTs)in Chongli during ...In this study,the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer-to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks(RTs)in Chongli during the wintertime is evaluated.The performance of two postprocessing methods,including the decaying-averaging(DA)and analogy-based(AN)methods,is tested to calibrate the near-surface wind speed forecasts.It is found that great uncertainties exist in the model’s raw forecasts of the near-surface wind speed in Chongli.Improvement of the forecast accuracy due to refinement of the horizontal resolution from kilometer to subkilometer scale is limited and not systematic.The RT sites tend to have large bias and centered root mean square error(CRMSE)values and also exhibit notable underestimation of high-wind speeds,notable overestimation or underestimation of the near-surface wind speed at high altitudes,and notable underestimation during daytime.These problems are not resolved by increasing the horizontal resolution and are even exacerbated,which leads to great challenges in the accurate forecasting of the near-surface wind speed in the competition areas in Chongli.The application of postprocessing methods can greatly improve the forecast accuracy of near-surface wind speed.Both methods used in this study have comparable abilities in reducing the(positive or negative)bias,while the AN method is also capable of decreasing the random error reflected by CRMSE.In particular,the large biases for high-wind speeds,wind speeds at high-altitude stations,and wind speeds during the daytime at RT stations can be evidently reduced.展开更多
Throughout vast areas of Asia,the summer of 2020 was extraordinarily wet.After an exceptionally wet May in Northeast India and Bangladesh,excessive rainfall hit at least 10 provinces in central and southern China in J...Throughout vast areas of Asia,the summer of 2020 was extraordinarily wet.After an exceptionally wet May in Northeast India and Bangladesh,excessive rainfall hit at least 10 provinces in central and southern China in June and July,causing extensive flooding in many rural and urban locations.Long standing rainfall,lake and river level records were consequently broken in several parts of the region with the Yangtze-Huaihe river valleys,particularly badly impacted,with consequential economic losses.Floods and landslides also affected parts of Japan with at least one location in Kumamoto province even experiencing a record-breaking 1000 mm of rainfall in just 3 days in early July.The 2020 wet season in South Korea was also exceptionally long,lasting 54 days,compared to their more usual 32.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation charact...Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation characteristics, as well as the dry-cold air and moisture sources of each type of PHREs were examined. The main results are as follows. A total of 32 non-typhoon influenced PHREs in South China were identified over the study period. By correlation analysis, the PHREs are divided into three types： SC-A type, with its main rainbelt located in the coastal areas and the northeast of Guangdong Province; SC-B type, with its main rainbelt between Guangdong Province and Guangxi Region; and SC-C type, with its main rainbelt located in the north of Guangxi Region. For the SC-A events, dry-cold air flew to South China under the steering effect of troughs in the middle troposphere which originated from the Ural Mountains and West Siberia Plain; whereas, the SC-C events were not influenced by the cold air from high latitudes. There were three water vapor pathways from low-latitude areas for both the SC-A and SC-C PHREs. The tropical Indian Ocean was the main water vapor source for these two PHRE types, while the South China Sea also contributed to the SC-C PHREs. In addition, the SC-A events were also influenced by moist and cold air originating from the Yellow Sea. Generally, the SC-C PHREs belonged to a warm-sector rainfall type, whose precipitation areas were dominated by southwesterly wind, and the convergence in wind speed was the main reason for precipitation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41630425,41671144074)the Key Research Program of Frontier Science,CAS(Grant No.QYZDJ-SSW-DQC007)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB441401)。
文摘The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42105127)the Special Research Assistant Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe National Key Research and Development Plans of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFC1510304 and 2016YFE0201900-02)。
文摘The cloud type product 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR based on CloudSat and CALIPSO from June 2006 to May 2017 is used to examine the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of eight cloud types(high cloud, altostratus, altocumulus, stratus, stratocumulus, cumulus, nimbostratus, and deep convection) and three phases(ice,mixed, and water) in the Arctic. Possible reasons for the observed interannual variability are also discussed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) More water clouds occur on the Atlantic side, and more ice clouds occur over continents.(2)The average spatial and seasonal distributions of cloud types show three patterns: high clouds and most cumuliform clouds are concentrated in low-latitude locations and peak in summer;altostratus and nimbostratus are concentrated over and around continents and are less abundant in summer;stratocumulus and stratus are concentrated near the inner Arctic and peak during spring and autumn.(3) Regional averaged interannual frequencies of ice clouds and altostratus clouds significantly decrease, while those of water clouds, altocumulus, and cumulus clouds increase significantly.(4) Significant features of the linear trends of cloud frequencies are mainly located over ocean areas.(5) The monthly water cloud frequency anomalies are positively correlated with air temperature in most of the troposphere, while those for ice clouds are negatively correlated.(6) The decrease in altostratus clouds is associated with the weakening of the Arctic front due to Arctic warming, while increased water vapor transport into the Arctic and higher atmospheric instability lead to more cumulus and altocumulus clouds.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375008,41975056,42005006)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)the Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.8222079)。
文摘Based on the significant weather report,CG lightning,composite radar reflectivity,and ERA5 reanalysis data,we first studied the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of four types(only severe convective wind(SCW);SCW and hail;SCW and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR);and SCW,hail,and SDHR)of convective weather events related to SCW during the warm season(May to September)from 2011 to 2018 in North China.Second,severe convective cases producing SCW were selected to statistically analyze the initiation,decay,lifetime,and organizational characteristics of convective systems.Finally,using ERA5 reanalysis data and conventional surface observation data,preconvective soundings were constructed to explore the differences in environmental conditions for initiating convective systems between SCW and non-SCW.The results indicate that mixed-type of SCW and SDHR events occur more frequently over plains,while other types of convective weather occur more frequently over mountains.The frequency peak of SCW occurs in June,while mixed convective weather peaks in July.The initiation time of convective systems is concentrated between 1000 and 1300 BST,with a peak at 1200 BST.Over mountains,the daily peaks of ordinary and significant SCW generally occur at 1700-1800 BST and 1600-1700 BST,respectively,while over plains,the peak of ordinary SCW typically lags behind that of mountains by 1-2 hours.Additionally,SCW systems are mainly initiated over mountains,with most lifetimes lasting 7–13 hours.Nonlinear convective systems produce the most SCW events,followed by trailing-stratiform convective systems.The convective available potential energy(CAPE),downdraft convective available potential energy,and the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa can all distinguish between SCW systems and non-SCW systems occurring over plains.Compared to non-SCW convective systems,SCW convective systems over mountains are more likely to occur in environments with less precipitable water,while SCW convective systems over plains are more likely to occur in environments with higher CAPE and stronger deep-layer wind shear.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. U2142202, 41975056, 42230612, and 41975058)Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)
文摘Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.
基金Key R&D Program of Xizang Autonomous Region(XZ202101ZY0004G)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2142202)+1 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3004104)Key Innovation Team of China Meteor-ological Administration(CMA2022ZD07)。
文摘Short-duration heavy rainfall(SHR),as delineated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Me-teorological Administration,is characterized by hourly rainfall amounts no less than 20.0 mm.SHR is one of the most common convective weather phenomena that can cause severe damage.Short-range forecasting of SHR is an important part of operational severe weather prediction.In the present study,an improved objective SHR forecasting scheme was developed by adopting the ingredients-based methodology and using the fuzzy logic approach.The 1.0°×1.0°National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)final analysis data and the ordinary rainfall(0.1-19.9 mm h-1)and SHR observational data from 411 stations were used in the improved scheme.The best lifted index,the total precipitable water,the 925 hPa specific humidity(Q 925),and the 925 hPa divergence(DIV 925)were selected as predictors based on objective analysis.Continuously distributed membership functions of predictors were obtained based on relative frequency analysis.The weights of predictors were also objectively determined.Experiments with a typhoon SHR case and a spring SHR case show that the main possible areas could be captured by the improved scheme.Verification of SHR forecasts within 96 hours with NCEP global forecasts 1.0°×1.0°data initiated at 08:00 Beijing Time during the warm seasons in 2015 show the results were improved from both deterministic and probabilistic perspectives.This study provides an objectively feasible choice for short-range guidance forecasts of SHR.The scheme can be applied to other convective phenomena.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507403)。
文摘The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.
基金This research was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA23090101)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975056).
文摘Persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)during 1981–2020 are classified into three types(type-A,type-B and type-C)according to pattern correlation.The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated.The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere.The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events,which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent.Type-C events have“two ridges and one trough”in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent,but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events.The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type.The location of the South Asian high(SAH)in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types,but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward.Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020,but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen,which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.
基金supported by the National Basic Research(973)Program of China(Grant No.2015CB452804)
文摘The rainfall processes during the formation of tropical cyclone(TC) Durian(2001) were investigated quantitatively using the three-dimensional(3 D) WRF-based precipitation equation. The rain rate(PS) decreased slightly as the TC approached to formation, and then increased as Durian began to intensify. The rate of moisture-related processes(QWV) in the equation contributed around 80% to PSbefore TC genesis, and made more contribution during and after TC genesis. The rate of hydrometeor-related processes(QCM) contributed about 20% before TC formation, followed by less contribution during and after TC formation. QWVwere dominated by the 3 D moisture flux advection rate(QWVA), while the surface evaporation rate(QWVE) also played an important role. Just before TC genesis, moisture from QWVAand QWVEhelped the local atmosphere moisten(negative QWVL). QCMwere determined by the 3 D hydrometeor advection rates(QCLAand QCIA) and the local change rates of hydrometeors(QCLLand QCIL). During TC formation, QCMlargely decreased and then reactivated as Durian began to intensify, accompanied by the development of TC cloud. Both the height and the strength of the net latent heating center associated with microphysical processes generally lowered before and during TC genesis, resulting mainly from lessening deposition and condensation. The downward shift of the net latent heating center induced a more bottom-heavy upward mass flux profile, suggesting to promote lower-tropospheric convergence in a shallower layer, vorticity amplification and TC spin-up.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2018YFC0809400]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41975057].
文摘Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic circulations and maintenance mechanisms between different PHRE types.There are two main types of PHREs:one is characterized by a rain belt west of 106°E over the SCB(WSB-PHREs),and the other features a rain belt east of 106°E over the SCB(ESB-PHREs).In total,there are 18 ESB-PHREs and 10 WSB-PHREs during the study period.Overall,the rain belts of WSB-PHREs are along the terrain distribution east of the Tibetan Plateau,while the precipitation intensity of ESB-PHREs is stronger.For the two types of PHREs,the shortwave trough over the SCB and the western Pacific subtropical high act as their favorable background environments,particularly for ESB-PHREs.The water vapor of WSB-PHREs is mainly transported from the South China Sea,whereas for ESB-PHREs the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal are their main moisture sources.The composite vorticity budgets of southwest vortices during their mature stage indicate that the convergence effect is a dominant factor for maintaining the two types of PHREs,and the strong vertical vorticity advection is also favorable,but the relative contribution of vertical advection is larger for WSB-PHREs.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975057).
文摘Based on the previous statistical analysis of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)over the second-step terrain along Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley,eight representative long-lived eastward-propagating MCSs are selected for model-based sensitivity testing to investigate the initiation and evolution of these types of MCSs as well as their impact on downstream areas.We subject each MCS to a semi-idealized(CNTL)simulation and a sensitivity(NOLH)simulation that neglects condensational heating in the formation region.The CNTL experiment reveals convection forms in the region downstream of a shortwave trough typified by persistent southwesterly winds in the low-to midtroposphere.Upon merging with other convective systems,moist convection develops into an MCS,which propagates eastward under the influence of mid-tropospheric westerlies,and moves out of the second-step terrain.The MCS then merges with pre-existing local convection over the plains;the merged convection reinforces the cyclonic wind perturbation into a mesoscale vortex at 850 hPa.While this vortex moves eastward to regions with local vortex at 850 hPa,another vortex at 925 hPa is also intensified.Finally,the vortices at 850 and 925 hPa merge together and develop into a mesoscale convective vortex(MCV).In contrast,MCSs fail to form and move eastward in the NOLH experiment.In the absence of eastward-propagating MCSs,moist convection and mesoscale vortices still appear in the plains,but the vortex strength and precipitation intensity are significantly weakened.It is suggested the eastward-propagating MCSs over the second-step terrain significantly impact the development and enhancement of moist convection and vortices in the downstream areas.
基金Project supported by the Strategic Pilot Science and Technology Special Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA17010105)the National Key Research and Development Project,China(Grant No.2018YFC1507104)+1 种基金the Key Scientific and Technology Research and Development Program of Jilin Province,China(Grant No.20180201035SF)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875056,41775140,and 41575065)。
文摘On the basis of the general potential vorticity theorem(GPV),a new wave-activity relation is derived in an ageostrophic and nonhydrostatic dynamic framework.When the Reynolds average is taken,the wave-activity relation shares an exchange term with the equation of the basic-state GPV.Thus,the two equations are capable of presenting the dynamic process of the wave-basic flow interaction.Unlike the E-P flux theory which can only be used in large-scale atmosphere,the corresponding derivation provides a useful tool to analyze the feedback of waves to basic states and the forcing of basic states to waves simultaneously,and it can be used in mesoscale systems,such as heavy rainfall processes.The theory was initially applied to the landfalling Typhoon Mujigae(2015) by assigning the scalar φ to the generalized potential temperature(GPT).The results showed that the newly-derived wave-activity density is able to describe the wave activities associated with strong precipitation in Typhoon Mujigae(2015),including the eyewall and spiral rainbands.However,the interaction between the basic-state vortex and mesoscale waves denoted by the exchange term between basic-state GPV and wave-activity density mainly occurs in the eyewall in Typhoon Mujigae(2015).A comparison of the exchange term with other forcing terms in the newly-derived wave-activity relation indicates that the basic state-wave interaction plays a significant role in enhancing wave activities in the high-precipitation eyewall.By a magnitude analysis of the interaction term,it is found that the strong interaction between basic-state vortex and mesoscale waves is mainly attributed to two factors:the vertical vorticity intensity of the basic-state vortex and the averaged perturbation advection of perturbation GPT which is an exchange between the basic-state GPT and perturbation GPT.
基金the Strategic Pilot Science and Technology Special Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA17010105)the National Key Research and Development Project(Grant No.2018YFC1507104)+1 种基金the Key Scientific and Technology Research and Development Program of Jilin Province(Grant No.20180201035SF)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41875056,41775140,42075013 and 41575065).
文摘In this study,the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to generate accurate near-surface wind speed forecasts at kilometer-to subkilometer-scale resolution along race tracks(RTs)in Chongli during the wintertime is evaluated.The performance of two postprocessing methods,including the decaying-averaging(DA)and analogy-based(AN)methods,is tested to calibrate the near-surface wind speed forecasts.It is found that great uncertainties exist in the model’s raw forecasts of the near-surface wind speed in Chongli.Improvement of the forecast accuracy due to refinement of the horizontal resolution from kilometer to subkilometer scale is limited and not systematic.The RT sites tend to have large bias and centered root mean square error(CRMSE)values and also exhibit notable underestimation of high-wind speeds,notable overestimation or underestimation of the near-surface wind speed at high altitudes,and notable underestimation during daytime.These problems are not resolved by increasing the horizontal resolution and are even exacerbated,which leads to great challenges in the accurate forecasting of the near-surface wind speed in the competition areas in Chongli.The application of postprocessing methods can greatly improve the forecast accuracy of near-surface wind speed.Both methods used in this study have comparable abilities in reducing the(positive or negative)bias,while the AN method is also capable of decreasing the random error reflected by CRMSE.In particular,the large biases for high-wind speeds,wind speeds at high-altitude stations,and wind speeds during the daytime at RT stations can be evidently reduced.
基金Robin CLARK was supported by the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.Chang-Hoi HO was supported by Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program(Grant No.KMI2020-00610)Tetsuya TAKEMI was supported,on this topic,by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund(ERTDF)JPMEERF20192005 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency(ERCA)of Japan.
文摘Throughout vast areas of Asia,the summer of 2020 was extraordinarily wet.After an exceptionally wet May in Northeast India and Bangladesh,excessive rainfall hit at least 10 provinces in central and southern China in June and July,causing extensive flooding in many rural and urban locations.Long standing rainfall,lake and river level records were consequently broken in several parts of the region with the Yangtze-Huaihe river valleys,particularly badly impacted,with consequential economic losses.Floods and landslides also affected parts of Japan with at least one location in Kumamoto province even experiencing a record-breaking 1000 mm of rainfall in just 3 days in early July.The 2020 wet season in South Korea was also exceptionally long,lasting 54 days,compared to their more usual 32.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB417201)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375053)
文摘Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation characteristics, as well as the dry-cold air and moisture sources of each type of PHREs were examined. The main results are as follows. A total of 32 non-typhoon influenced PHREs in South China were identified over the study period. By correlation analysis, the PHREs are divided into three types： SC-A type, with its main rainbelt located in the coastal areas and the northeast of Guangdong Province; SC-B type, with its main rainbelt between Guangdong Province and Guangxi Region; and SC-C type, with its main rainbelt located in the north of Guangxi Region. For the SC-A events, dry-cold air flew to South China under the steering effect of troughs in the middle troposphere which originated from the Ural Mountains and West Siberia Plain; whereas, the SC-C events were not influenced by the cold air from high latitudes. There were three water vapor pathways from low-latitude areas for both the SC-A and SC-C PHREs. The tropical Indian Ocean was the main water vapor source for these two PHRE types, while the South China Sea also contributed to the SC-C PHREs. In addition, the SC-A events were also influenced by moist and cold air originating from the Yellow Sea. Generally, the SC-C PHREs belonged to a warm-sector rainfall type, whose precipitation areas were dominated by southwesterly wind, and the convergence in wind speed was the main reason for precipitation.
