This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coeff...This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m^3 km^(-1) s^(-1), respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.展开更多
In this work, the average mean (TAvg), maximum (TMax), and minimum temperature (TMin) and precipitation records of Qingdao from 1899 to 2015 are analyzed. The TAvg, TMax and TMin all go through several warm and cold p...In this work, the average mean (TAvg), maximum (TMax), and minimum temperature (TMin) and precipitation records of Qingdao from 1899 to 2015 are analyzed. The TAvg, TMax and TMin all go through several warm and cold periods, and exhibit statistically significant linear warming trend especially in spring and winter, as a response to global warming. Besides, the TAvg reflects more the TMin evolution for the most part, either as a trend or an abrupt change, and the contribution of TMin to Tavg is far greater than that of TMax. The abrupt change year of climate is also around 1979 in Qingdao, and it is 2 or 3-years later than the TAvg for the TMin, while there is no abrupt change of TMax. In terms of the precipitation in Qingdao, it varies periodically and dramatically with a slow increasing trend. As for the seasonal precipitation, the precipitation varies widely year by year for the four seasons but with no obvious variation trend except for spring.展开更多
The geographical condition of Qingdao, China is relatively special;the transport of various inland pollutants, the emissions of marine aerosol and local pollutants will have an impact on the changes of atmospheric aer...The geographical condition of Qingdao, China is relatively special;the transport of various inland pollutants, the emissions of marine aerosol and local pollutants will have an impact on the changes of atmospheric aerosol concentration. By using the stability classification method, trajectory clustering analysis and the NOAA HYSPLIT model, the seasonal distribution characteristics of atmospheric inhalable particulate matter concentration in Qingdao, China and its relationship with meteorological conditions, mixed layer height, and the seasonal characteristics of Qingdao pollutant transport were analyzed. The results show that the variation trends of PM2.5 and PM10 were about the same, and there are obvious seasonal differences, which are high in winter and spring, and low in summer and autumn. The concentration of inhalable particulate matter has a negative correlation with temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The concentration of inhalable particulate matter is distinct in different relative humidity ranges. When the wind speed is less than 3 - 4 m/s, there are more inhalable particles, while the mass concentration shows obvious reduction with the wind speed more than 4 m/s. There is a significant negative correlation between the mass concentration of pollutants and the daily maximum mixed layer height. The larger the concentration of pollutants, the smaller the thickness of the daily largest mixed layer. Conversely, the smaller the mass concentration of pollutants, the larger the thickness of the daily largest mixed layer. The pollutant transport in Qingdao has obvious seasonal characteristics. The air mass in spring, autumn and winter is mainly medium-long distance transport from Mongolia and southern Russia, and medium-short distance transport from Inner Mongolia and northeast of China. The source of air masses in summer is mainly transported from the eastern and sea areas.展开更多
The visibility characteristics and meteorological conditions of a sea fog process on 27</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-fa...The visibility characteristics and meteorological conditions of a sea fog process on 27</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> February, 2016 are analyzed and the heavy fog process is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in this paper. The forecast results show that the visibility in Qingdao coastal area is light fog on the night of the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. In the WRF simulation, it can be observed from the sea-level pressure that the wind direction of Qingdao and the coastal area turned southerly with the eastward movement of the low pressure system on surface from 1200 UTC to 1800 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. A large amount of water vapor brought by easterly and southerly wind provides sufficient water vapor conditions for the formation and development of the sea fog. At 975 hPa, there is a strong warm tongue over Shandong Peninsula at 0600 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, w</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hile the offshore is affected by the cold tongue, where the horizontal temperature gradient is large and there is a strong baroclinicity. At 850 hPa, there is a weak warm ridge over Qingdao at 1200 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, which means that it is an inversion layer, which is conducive to the maintenance of fog.展开更多
The Chinese east coastal areas and marginal seas are foggy regions. The development of effective forecasting methods rests upon a comprehensive knowledge of the fog phenomena. This study provides new observations asso...The Chinese east coastal areas and marginal seas are foggy regions. The development of effective forecasting methods rests upon a comprehensive knowledge of the fog phenomena. This study provides new observations associated with the sea fogs over the northwestern Yellow Sea by means of L-band radar soundings with a high vertical resolution of 30 m. The monthly temperature lapse rate, the Richardson Numbers, and the humidity show obvious seasonal variations in the lower level of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that are related to the onset, peak and end of the Yellow Sea fog season. The typical pattern of stratification for the sea fog season in the northwestern Yellow Sea is that a stable layer of about 400 m thick caps a 150 m conditionally unstable layer. Besides, the differences between fogs and stratus clouds in terms of humidity, turbulence and temperature are analyzed, which is of significance for sea fog forecast and detection by satellites. The thickness of the sea fogs varies in different stages of the fog season, and is associated with the temperature inversion. The numerical simulation proves that the seasonal variations obtained by the radar well represent the situations over the Yellow Sea.展开更多
The impact of moist physics on the sensitive areas identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)is examined based on four typical heavy rainfall cases in northern China through performing numerical ex...The impact of moist physics on the sensitive areas identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)is examined based on four typical heavy rainfall cases in northern China through performing numerical experiments with and without moist physics.Results show that the CNOP with moist physics identifies sensitive areas corresponding to both the lower-(850−700 hPa)and upper-level(300−100 hPa)weather systems,while the CNOP without moist physics fails to capture the sensitive areas at lower levels.The reasons for the CNOP peaking at different levels can be explained in both algorithm and physics aspects.Firstly,the gradient of the cost function with respect to initial perturbations peaks at the upper level without moist physics which results in the upper-level peak of the CNOP,while it peaks at both the upper and lower levels with moist physics which results in both the upper-and lower-level peaks of the CNOP.Secondly,the upper-level sensitive area is associated with high baroclinicity,and these dynamic features can be captured by both CNOPs with and without moist physics.The lower-level sensitive area is associated with moist processes,and this thermodynamic feature can be captured only by the CNOP with moist physics.This result demonstrates the important contribution of the initial error of lower-level systems that are related to water vapor transportation to the forecast error of heavy rainfall associated weather systems,which could be an important reference for heavy rainfall observation targeting.展开更多
We studied the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the Japan Sea and the sea area east of Japan on the winter rainfall and air temperature in Northeast(NE) China using the singular value decomposition(S...We studied the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the Japan Sea and the sea area east of Japan on the winter rainfall and air temperature in Northeast(NE) China using the singular value decomposition(SVD) and empirical orthogonal function(EOF). The monthly-mean rainfall data observed at 160 stations in China, monthly-mean sea surface temperature(SST) of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and monthly-mean air temperature from the NCEP reanalysis during 1960–2011 were used. Correlation analysis indicates that the SSTAs in the Japan Sea in September may last for three or four months and are an important index for forecasting the winter rainfall and air temperature in NE China. Positive SSTAs in the central Japan Sea and in the sea area east of Tokyo correspond to positive rainfall anomaly and negative air temperature anomaly in NE China. With the rise of SST in the Japan Sea, a weak cyclone appears over the Japan Sea. The northeasterly wind transports water vapor from the Okhotsk to NE China, resulting in more rainfall and lower air temperature. Negative SSTA years are accompanied by warmer air temperature and less snow in NE China. The 1000 h Pa geopotential height anomaly and wind anomaly fields are simulated by IAP-9L model, which supports the analysis results.展开更多
The synoptic situation and mesoscale structure of an explosive extratropical cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007 are investigated through weather station observations and data reanalysis. The cyclone i...The synoptic situation and mesoscale structure of an explosive extratropical cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007 are investigated through weather station observations and data reanalysis. The cyclone is located beneath the poleward side of the exit of a 200 hPa jet, which is a strong divergent region aloft. At mid-level, the cyclone lies on the downstream side of a well-developed trough, where a strong ascending motion frequently occurs. Cross-section analyses with weather station data show that the cyclone has a warm and moist core. A ‘nose' of the cold front, which is characterized by a low-level protruding structure in the equivalent potential temperature field, forms when the cyclone moves offshore. This ‘nose' structure is hypothesized to have been caused by the heating effect of the Kuroshio Current. Two low-level jet streams are also identified on the western and eastern sides of the cold front. The western jet conveys cold and dry air at 800–900 hPa. The wind in the northern part is northeasterly, and the wind in the southern part is northwesterly. By contrast, the eastern jet carries warm and moist air into the cyclone system, ascending northward from 900 hPa to 600–700 hPa. The southern part is dominated by the southerly wind, and the wind in the northern part is southwesterly. The eastern and western jets significantly increase the air temperature and moisture contrast in the vicinity of the cold front. This increase could play an important role in improving the rapid cyclogenesis process.展开更多
Laizhou Bay and its adjacent waters are of great importance to China's marine oil and gas development. It is therefore crucial to estimate return-period values of marine environmental variables in this region to e...Laizhou Bay and its adjacent waters are of great importance to China's marine oil and gas development. It is therefore crucial to estimate return-period values of marine environmental variables in this region to ensure the safety and success of maritime engineering and maritime exploration. In this study, we used numerical simulations to estimate extreme wave height, sea current velocity and sea-level height in western Laizhou Bay. The results show that the sea-level rise starts at the mouth of the bay, increases toward west/southwest, and reaches its maximum in the deepest basin of the bay. The 100-year return-period values of sea level rise can reach 3.4–4.0 m in the western bay. The elevation of the western part of the Qingdong Oil Field would remain above the sea surface during extreme low sea level, while the rest of the oil field would be 1.6–2.4 m below the sea surface. The return-period value of wave height is strongly affected by water depth; in fact, its spatial distribution is similar to the isobath's. The 100-year return-period values of effective wave height can be 6 m or higher in the central bay and be more than 1 m in the shallow water near shore. The 100-year return-period values of current velocity is about 1.2–1.8 m s-1 in the Qingdong Oil Field. These results provide scientific basis for ensuring construction safety and reducing construction cost.展开更多
An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the ...An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.展开更多
Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, th...Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.展开更多
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the atmospheric visibility (Vis) data at 134 sites in eastern China (ECN) are used to investigate the possible influence of AO on the wintertime weather...NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the atmospheric visibility (Vis) data at 134 sites in eastern China (ECN) are used to investigate the possible influence of AO on the wintertime weather and Vis over ECN. A higher relative humidity (RH, compared with the normal year) is identified over ECN in the winters with a positive phase of AO, and the wind anomaly is generally inshore in the coast areas of China. All these processes are consistent with Vis degradation over ECN. On the contrary, in the winters with a negative phase of AO, a lower RH can be identified over ECN, and the wind anomaly is generally offshore, which is favorable for Vis improvement.展开更多
The relationship between time-space variation characteristics and the variation of the general atmospheric circulation of rainfall occurred in Asia, Africa through North Africa-Middle East-Western Middle Asia-Eastern ...The relationship between time-space variation characteristics and the variation of the general atmospheric circulation of rainfall occurred in Asia, Africa through North Africa-Middle East-Western Middle Asia-Eastern Middle Asia, Northwest China-Eastern Northwest China-North China and Northeast China is studied based on the analysis of GPCC rainfall data from 1901 to 2010 and annual precipitation in relevant cities of China from 1901 to 2010, and the data of NCEP of surface pressure as well as 500 Hpa potential high from 1950 to 2010. The result shows that the total precipitation presents a decreasing trend in north Africa to the northeast of China in recent 100 years. It has a mutation in 1950s. The precipitation presented a decreasing trend in North Africa and Middle East, in recent 100 years;it presented a further decreasing trend after 1950s. It presented a decreasing trend before 1950s and an increasing trend after 1950s in Middle Asia and Northwest china. It also presented a decreasing trend before 1950s and an increasing trend between 1950s to 1990s, and decreased later in Eastern Northwest China, North China and Northeast China which also presented in a more or less period in different areas from North Africa to Northeast China. The beginning of less precipitation years and less period occurred after it presented less period in north Africa in time and space. After it moved to the east areas as the year past, at last, the SLPA fields which presented more or less precipitations of years from North Africa to Northeast China were analyzed. It also shows that the SLPA fields which presented more were beneficial to the precipitations and presented negative effects of precipitations in the polar, high and mid- and lower latitudes.展开更多
We studied effects of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Barents Sea in autumn on the atmospheric circulation in northeast China in winter, using the NCEP reanalysis data and sea surface temperature (SST) d...We studied effects of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Barents Sea in autumn on the atmospheric circulation in northeast China in winter, using the NCEP reanalysis data and sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Center. The results show that the ocean thermal conditions in the Barents Sea in autumn can be used as an important reference factor for predicting the cold air activity in China. When the sea surface temperature anomaly of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the sea-level pressure anomaly elevated in eastern China on December, northeast China and southeastern Russia on January and February. In the years when the SSTA of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the abnormal high-pressure ridge developed over Europe, and the geopotential height in western China appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa. At 1000 hPa, the Mongolia high-pressure increased and the northerly airflow strengthened the cold high-latitude air broke out to the south, which was easy to affect northeast and north of China. In negative SSTA years, the high-pressure ridge was west to the north Atlantic, and the geopotential height in central and northern Siberia appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa;the Mongolia high-pressure was weakened at 1000 hPa.展开更多
The authors analyze the coral growth band from a colony in the northwestern South China Sea. The coral growth band can provide comprehensive environmental information on climate. The trend from the two-century-long an...The authors analyze the coral growth band from a colony in the northwestern South China Sea. The coral growth band can provide comprehensive environmental information on climate. The trend from the two-century-long annual density of the coral is in a good agreement with that of the global CO2 concentration. Both trends were small prior to the end of the 19th century; after that, trends became clear, more so from the 1960s to the 1990s (the end of the coral record). The overall coral density shows a steady decrease from the late 19th century to the late 20th century. Therefore, the trend from the annual density of the coral reveals the history of the anthropogenic climate change, which is coherent with instrumental and other proxy records. We propose a simple coral-based proxy for reconstructing the anthropogenic climate change over the past two centuries.展开更多
A storm track is a region in which synoptic eddy activities are statistically most prevalent and intense. At daily weather charts, it roughly corresponds to the mean trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones. In this ...A storm track is a region in which synoptic eddy activities are statistically most prevalent and intense. At daily weather charts, it roughly corresponds to the mean trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones. In this paper, the recent QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) satellite sea winds data with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution, and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 10-m height Gaussian grid wind data and pressure-level reanalysis data, are employed to document the spatial structure of the North Pacific storm track in winter (January) and summer (July) from 1999 to 2005. The results show that in winter the North Pacific storm track is stronger, and is located in lower latitudes with a distinct zonal distribution. In summer, it is weaker, and is located in higher latitudes. Based on the horizontal distributions of geopotential height variance at various levels, three-dimensional schematic diagrams of the North Pacific storm track in winter and summer are extracted and presented. Analyses of the QuikSCAT wind data indicate that this dataset can depict the low-level storm track features in detail. The double storm tracks over the Southern Oceans found by Nakamura and Shimpo are confirmed. More significantly, two new pairs of low-level storm tracks over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are identified by using this high-resolution dataset. The pair over the North Pacific is focused in this paper, and is named as the "subtropical storm track" and the "subpolar storm track", respectively. Moreover, statistical analyses of cyclone and anticyclone trajectories in the winters of 1999 to 2005 reveal as well the existence of the low-level double storm tracks over the North Pacific.展开更多
In this study, we simulated and analyzed the monthly variations of stable water isotopes in different reservoirs at Manaus, Brazil, using the Community Land Model (CLM) that incorporates stable isotopic effects as a d...In this study, we simulated and analyzed the monthly variations of stable water isotopes in different reservoirs at Manaus, Brazil, using the Community Land Model (CLM) that incorporates stable isotopic effects as a diagnostic tool for understanding stable water isotopic processes, filling the observational data gaps and predicting hydrometeorological processes. The simulation results show that the δ 18O values in precipitation, vapor and surface runoff have distinct seasonality with the marked negative correlations with corresponding water amount. Compared with the survey results by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in co-operation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the simulations by CLM reveal the similar temporal distributions of the δ 18O in precipitation. Moreover, the simulated amount effect between monthly δ 18O and monthly precipitation amount, and MWL (meteoric water line) are all close to the measured values. However, the simulated seasonal difference in the δ 18O in precipitation is distinctly smaller than observed one, and the simulated temporal distribution of the δ 18O in precipitation displays the ideal bimodal seasonality rather than the observed single one. These mismatches are possibly related to the simulation capacity and the veracity in forcing data.展开更多
This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan...This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province China on 19−20 July 2021 with a record-breaking hourly rainfall exceeding 200 mm and a 24-h rainfall exceeding 600 mm.Results show that the strengths of the mid-level low-pressure system,the upper-level divergence,and the low-level jet determine both the amount of the extreme 24-h accumulated and hourly rainfall at 0800 UTC.The forecast uncertainties of the accumulated rainfall are insensitive to the magnitude and the spatial structure of the tiny,unobservable errors in the initial conditions of the ensemble forecasts generated with Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)or sub-grid-scale perturbations,suggesting that the predictability of this event is intrinsically limited.The dominance of upscale rather than upamplitude error growth is demonstrated under the regime of k^(−5/3) power spectra by revealing the inability of large-scale errors to grow until the amplitude of small-scale errors has increased to an adequate amplitude,and an apparent transfer of the fastest growing scale from smaller to larger scales with a slower growth rate at larger scales.Moist convective activities play a critical role in enhancing the overall error growth rate with a larger error growth rate at smaller scales.In addition,initial perturbations with different structures have different error growth features at larger scales in different variables in a regime transitioning from the k^(−5/3) to k^(−3) power law.Error growth with conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)tends to be more upamplitude relative to the GEFS or sub-grid-scale perturbations possibly owing to the inherited error growth feature of CNOP,the inability of convective parameterization scheme to rebuild the k^(−5/3) power spectra at the mesoscales,and different error growth characteristics in the k^(−5/3) and k^(−3) regimes.展开更多
An exceptional rainy season occurred in the Yangtze River valley of eastern China in June-July 2020.The relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on this unusual event is evaluated through the budge...An exceptional rainy season occurred in the Yangtze River valley of eastern China in June-July 2020.The relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on this unusual event is evaluated through the budget equations of moisture and moist static energy(MSE).The moisture budget analysis suggests that the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation anomaly by 8.5%through the advection of abnormal water vapor by mean vertical motion,while the dynamic effect,related to water vapor advection by anomalous vertical motion,has the dominant contribution.The MSE budget analysis further reveals that the anomalous vertical motion is both constrained by the dynamic effect related to changes in atmospheric circulation and the thermodynamic effect related to changes of the atmospheric thermal state,with a ratio of thermodynamic versus total effects estimated at 45.3%.The dynamic effect is linked to the advection of warm and humid air by the abnormal southwesterly wind,which is related with an anomalous anticyclone over the Philippine Sea.The thermodynamic effect is partly induced by the positive advection of anomalous MSE(mainly latent energy)by the mean vertical motion.This analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects is useful to understand the underlying physical mechanisms leading to the unusual rainy season in the Yangtze River valley in summer 2020.It is also helpful to put forward a few speculations on the potential role of global warming whose primary effect is,after all,to change the thermal state of the atmosphere.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC1401103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51779236)+1 种基金the International Cooperation Projects (No. INTASAVE ACCC-045)the Open Fund of Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering。
文摘This study aims to estimate and predict the impact of climate change on typhoons and wave overtopping during typhoon progresses in Qingdao, China. The SWAN wave model is used to simulate wave elements. The scale coefficients of wave overtopping are estimated using an empirical prediction formula. A total of 75 tropical cyclones affected Qingdao from 1949 to 2019. These tropical cyclones can be grouped into eight categories according to typhoon tracks. Typhoon wind speed during Track G is projected to decrease, and those of the other seven typhoon progresses will increase by 0.35% – 0.75% in 2025, 0.69% – 1.5% in 2035, and 1.38% – 3.0% in 2055. The significant wave height and wave overtopping outside the bay are greater than those inside the bay. Among the 506 typical points selected, the maximum values of the significant wave height and wave overtopping inside the bay are mainly distributed in the range of 0 – 2 m and 0 – 60 m^3 km^(-1) s^(-1), respectively. The increments of the significant wave height and wave overtopping of Track F are most obvious. The significant wave height of Track F will increase by 50.5% in 2025, 51.8% in 2035, and 53.4% in 2055. In the 2℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055. In the 4℃ scenario, the maximum value of wave overtopping of Track F will increase by 21.9% in 2025, 24.3% in 2035, and 29.5% in 2055.
文摘In this work, the average mean (TAvg), maximum (TMax), and minimum temperature (TMin) and precipitation records of Qingdao from 1899 to 2015 are analyzed. The TAvg, TMax and TMin all go through several warm and cold periods, and exhibit statistically significant linear warming trend especially in spring and winter, as a response to global warming. Besides, the TAvg reflects more the TMin evolution for the most part, either as a trend or an abrupt change, and the contribution of TMin to Tavg is far greater than that of TMax. The abrupt change year of climate is also around 1979 in Qingdao, and it is 2 or 3-years later than the TAvg for the TMin, while there is no abrupt change of TMax. In terms of the precipitation in Qingdao, it varies periodically and dramatically with a slow increasing trend. As for the seasonal precipitation, the precipitation varies widely year by year for the four seasons but with no obvious variation trend except for spring.
文摘The geographical condition of Qingdao, China is relatively special;the transport of various inland pollutants, the emissions of marine aerosol and local pollutants will have an impact on the changes of atmospheric aerosol concentration. By using the stability classification method, trajectory clustering analysis and the NOAA HYSPLIT model, the seasonal distribution characteristics of atmospheric inhalable particulate matter concentration in Qingdao, China and its relationship with meteorological conditions, mixed layer height, and the seasonal characteristics of Qingdao pollutant transport were analyzed. The results show that the variation trends of PM2.5 and PM10 were about the same, and there are obvious seasonal differences, which are high in winter and spring, and low in summer and autumn. The concentration of inhalable particulate matter has a negative correlation with temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. The concentration of inhalable particulate matter is distinct in different relative humidity ranges. When the wind speed is less than 3 - 4 m/s, there are more inhalable particles, while the mass concentration shows obvious reduction with the wind speed more than 4 m/s. There is a significant negative correlation between the mass concentration of pollutants and the daily maximum mixed layer height. The larger the concentration of pollutants, the smaller the thickness of the daily largest mixed layer. Conversely, the smaller the mass concentration of pollutants, the larger the thickness of the daily largest mixed layer. The pollutant transport in Qingdao has obvious seasonal characteristics. The air mass in spring, autumn and winter is mainly medium-long distance transport from Mongolia and southern Russia, and medium-short distance transport from Inner Mongolia and northeast of China. The source of air masses in summer is mainly transported from the eastern and sea areas.
文摘The visibility characteristics and meteorological conditions of a sea fog process on 27</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> February, 2016 are analyzed and the heavy fog process is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in this paper. The forecast results show that the visibility in Qingdao coastal area is light fog on the night of the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. In the WRF simulation, it can be observed from the sea-level pressure that the wind direction of Qingdao and the coastal area turned southerly with the eastward movement of the low pressure system on surface from 1200 UTC to 1800 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. A large amount of water vapor brought by easterly and southerly wind provides sufficient water vapor conditions for the formation and development of the sea fog. At 975 hPa, there is a strong warm tongue over Shandong Peninsula at 0600 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, w</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hile the offshore is affected by the cold tongue, where the horizontal temperature gradient is large and there is a strong baroclinicity. At 850 hPa, there is a weak warm ridge over Qingdao at 1200 UTC on the 26</span><sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, which means that it is an inversion layer, which is conducive to the maintenance of fog.
基金the National Scientific and Technological R&D Program Nos 2006AA09Z149,GYHY200706031the Scientific and Technological R&D Program of Qingdao No05-2-NS-35
文摘The Chinese east coastal areas and marginal seas are foggy regions. The development of effective forecasting methods rests upon a comprehensive knowledge of the fog phenomena. This study provides new observations associated with the sea fogs over the northwestern Yellow Sea by means of L-band radar soundings with a high vertical resolution of 30 m. The monthly temperature lapse rate, the Richardson Numbers, and the humidity show obvious seasonal variations in the lower level of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that are related to the onset, peak and end of the Yellow Sea fog season. The typical pattern of stratification for the sea fog season in the northwestern Yellow Sea is that a stable layer of about 400 m thick caps a 150 m conditionally unstable layer. Besides, the differences between fogs and stratus clouds in terms of humidity, turbulence and temperature are analyzed, which is of significance for sea fog forecast and detection by satellites. The thickness of the sea fogs varies in different stages of the fog season, and is associated with the temperature inversion. The numerical simulation proves that the seasonal variations obtained by the radar well represent the situations over the Yellow Sea.
基金supported by the National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030604,41875051,and 41425018).
文摘The impact of moist physics on the sensitive areas identified by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)is examined based on four typical heavy rainfall cases in northern China through performing numerical experiments with and without moist physics.Results show that the CNOP with moist physics identifies sensitive areas corresponding to both the lower-(850−700 hPa)and upper-level(300−100 hPa)weather systems,while the CNOP without moist physics fails to capture the sensitive areas at lower levels.The reasons for the CNOP peaking at different levels can be explained in both algorithm and physics aspects.Firstly,the gradient of the cost function with respect to initial perturbations peaks at the upper level without moist physics which results in the upper-level peak of the CNOP,while it peaks at both the upper and lower levels with moist physics which results in both the upper-and lower-level peaks of the CNOP.Secondly,the upper-level sensitive area is associated with high baroclinicity,and these dynamic features can be captured by both CNOPs with and without moist physics.The lower-level sensitive area is associated with moist processes,and this thermodynamic feature can be captured only by the CNOP with moist physics.This result demonstrates the important contribution of the initial error of lower-level systems that are related to water vapor transportation to the forecast error of heavy rainfall associated weather systems,which could be an important reference for heavy rainfall observation targeting.
基金supported by Innovation and Research Foundation of Ocean University of China(No.201261009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40930844 and 10735030)the National Basic Research Program of China(the 973 Program)under grant No.2005CB422 301
文摘We studied the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the Japan Sea and the sea area east of Japan on the winter rainfall and air temperature in Northeast(NE) China using the singular value decomposition(SVD) and empirical orthogonal function(EOF). The monthly-mean rainfall data observed at 160 stations in China, monthly-mean sea surface temperature(SST) of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and monthly-mean air temperature from the NCEP reanalysis during 1960–2011 were used. Correlation analysis indicates that the SSTAs in the Japan Sea in September may last for three or four months and are an important index for forecasting the winter rainfall and air temperature in NE China. Positive SSTAs in the central Japan Sea and in the sea area east of Tokyo correspond to positive rainfall anomaly and negative air temperature anomaly in NE China. With the rise of SST in the Japan Sea, a weak cyclone appears over the Japan Sea. The northeasterly wind transports water vapor from the Okhotsk to NE China, resulting in more rainfall and lower air temperature. Negative SSTA years are accompanied by warmer air temperature and less snow in NE China. The 1000 h Pa geopotential height anomaly and wind anomaly fields are simulated by IAP-9L model, which supports the analysis results.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41275049 and 41775042)
文摘The synoptic situation and mesoscale structure of an explosive extratropical cyclone over the Northwestern Pacific in March 2007 are investigated through weather station observations and data reanalysis. The cyclone is located beneath the poleward side of the exit of a 200 hPa jet, which is a strong divergent region aloft. At mid-level, the cyclone lies on the downstream side of a well-developed trough, where a strong ascending motion frequently occurs. Cross-section analyses with weather station data show that the cyclone has a warm and moist core. A ‘nose' of the cold front, which is characterized by a low-level protruding structure in the equivalent potential temperature field, forms when the cyclone moves offshore. This ‘nose' structure is hypothesized to have been caused by the heating effect of the Kuroshio Current. Two low-level jet streams are also identified on the western and eastern sides of the cold front. The western jet conveys cold and dry air at 800–900 hPa. The wind in the northern part is northeasterly, and the wind in the southern part is northwesterly. By contrast, the eastern jet carries warm and moist air into the cyclone system, ascending northward from 900 hPa to 600–700 hPa. The southern part is dominated by the southerly wind, and the wind in the northern part is southwesterly. The eastern and western jets significantly increase the air temperature and moisture contrast in the vicinity of the cold front. This increase could play an important role in improving the rapid cyclogenesis process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for the Project ‘Formation and development of the muddy deposition in the central south Yellow Sea, and its relation with climate and environmental change (41030856)’the Shandong Natural Science Foun-dation for the Project ‘Seasonal variation and its mechanism of suspended sediment distribution along the Shandong Peninsula (BS2012HZ022)’+2 种基金the project of ‘Ocean-Land interaction and coastal geological hazard (GZH201100203)’the NSFC project ‘Mechanism on strong wind’s effect on submarine pipeline’s stability’ (41006024)the Taishan Scholar Project
文摘Laizhou Bay and its adjacent waters are of great importance to China's marine oil and gas development. It is therefore crucial to estimate return-period values of marine environmental variables in this region to ensure the safety and success of maritime engineering and maritime exploration. In this study, we used numerical simulations to estimate extreme wave height, sea current velocity and sea-level height in western Laizhou Bay. The results show that the sea-level rise starts at the mouth of the bay, increases toward west/southwest, and reaches its maximum in the deepest basin of the bay. The 100-year return-period values of sea level rise can reach 3.4–4.0 m in the western bay. The elevation of the western part of the Qingdong Oil Field would remain above the sea surface during extreme low sea level, while the rest of the oil field would be 1.6–2.4 m below the sea surface. The return-period value of wave height is strongly affected by water depth; in fact, its spatial distribution is similar to the isobath's. The 100-year return-period values of effective wave height can be 6 m or higher in the central bay and be more than 1 m in the shallow water near shore. The 100-year return-period values of current velocity is about 1.2–1.8 m s-1 in the Qingdong Oil Field. These results provide scientific basis for ensuring construction safety and reducing construction cost.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41775042)the China Bohai Rim Meteorological Science and Technol-ogy Collaborative Innovation Fund(No.QYXM201906).Dr.Chungu Lu was supported by the U.S.National Sci-ence Foundation’s Independent Research and Development Fund。
文摘An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.
基金supported by the National Na-tural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41775042 and 41275049)。
文摘Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.
文摘NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and the atmospheric visibility (Vis) data at 134 sites in eastern China (ECN) are used to investigate the possible influence of AO on the wintertime weather and Vis over ECN. A higher relative humidity (RH, compared with the normal year) is identified over ECN in the winters with a positive phase of AO, and the wind anomaly is generally inshore in the coast areas of China. All these processes are consistent with Vis degradation over ECN. On the contrary, in the winters with a negative phase of AO, a lower RH can be identified over ECN, and the wind anomaly is generally offshore, which is favorable for Vis improvement.
文摘The relationship between time-space variation characteristics and the variation of the general atmospheric circulation of rainfall occurred in Asia, Africa through North Africa-Middle East-Western Middle Asia-Eastern Middle Asia, Northwest China-Eastern Northwest China-North China and Northeast China is studied based on the analysis of GPCC rainfall data from 1901 to 2010 and annual precipitation in relevant cities of China from 1901 to 2010, and the data of NCEP of surface pressure as well as 500 Hpa potential high from 1950 to 2010. The result shows that the total precipitation presents a decreasing trend in north Africa to the northeast of China in recent 100 years. It has a mutation in 1950s. The precipitation presented a decreasing trend in North Africa and Middle East, in recent 100 years;it presented a further decreasing trend after 1950s. It presented a decreasing trend before 1950s and an increasing trend after 1950s in Middle Asia and Northwest china. It also presented a decreasing trend before 1950s and an increasing trend between 1950s to 1990s, and decreased later in Eastern Northwest China, North China and Northeast China which also presented in a more or less period in different areas from North Africa to Northeast China. The beginning of less precipitation years and less period occurred after it presented less period in north Africa in time and space. After it moved to the east areas as the year past, at last, the SLPA fields which presented more or less precipitations of years from North Africa to Northeast China were analyzed. It also shows that the SLPA fields which presented more were beneficial to the precipitations and presented negative effects of precipitations in the polar, high and mid- and lower latitudes.
文摘We studied effects of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Barents Sea in autumn on the atmospheric circulation in northeast China in winter, using the NCEP reanalysis data and sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Center. The results show that the ocean thermal conditions in the Barents Sea in autumn can be used as an important reference factor for predicting the cold air activity in China. When the sea surface temperature anomaly of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the sea-level pressure anomaly elevated in eastern China on December, northeast China and southeastern Russia on January and February. In the years when the SSTA of the Barents Sea elevated in the autumn, the abnormal high-pressure ridge developed over Europe, and the geopotential height in western China appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa. At 1000 hPa, the Mongolia high-pressure increased and the northerly airflow strengthened the cold high-latitude air broke out to the south, which was easy to affect northeast and north of China. In negative SSTA years, the high-pressure ridge was west to the north Atlantic, and the geopotential height in central and northern Siberia appeared negative anomaly at 500 hPa;the Mongolia high-pressure was weakened at 1000 hPa.
基金supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZSW2-YW-214)National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB403604)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. U0733002 and 40906010)
文摘The authors analyze the coral growth band from a colony in the northwestern South China Sea. The coral growth band can provide comprehensive environmental information on climate. The trend from the two-century-long annual density of the coral is in a good agreement with that of the global CO2 concentration. Both trends were small prior to the end of the 19th century; after that, trends became clear, more so from the 1960s to the 1990s (the end of the coral record). The overall coral density shows a steady decrease from the late 19th century to the late 20th century. Therefore, the trend from the annual density of the coral reveals the history of the anthropogenic climate change, which is coherent with instrumental and other proxy records. We propose a simple coral-based proxy for reconstructing the anthropogenic climate change over the past two centuries.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40675060Chinese Ministry of Science andTechnology 863 Project under Grant No. 2006AA09Z151+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration under Grant No. GYHY200706031State Oceanic Administration under Grant No. 908-02-03-10
文摘A storm track is a region in which synoptic eddy activities are statistically most prevalent and intense. At daily weather charts, it roughly corresponds to the mean trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones. In this paper, the recent QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) satellite sea winds data with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution, and the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) 10-m height Gaussian grid wind data and pressure-level reanalysis data, are employed to document the spatial structure of the North Pacific storm track in winter (January) and summer (July) from 1999 to 2005. The results show that in winter the North Pacific storm track is stronger, and is located in lower latitudes with a distinct zonal distribution. In summer, it is weaker, and is located in higher latitudes. Based on the horizontal distributions of geopotential height variance at various levels, three-dimensional schematic diagrams of the North Pacific storm track in winter and summer are extracted and presented. Analyses of the QuikSCAT wind data indicate that this dataset can depict the low-level storm track features in detail. The double storm tracks over the Southern Oceans found by Nakamura and Shimpo are confirmed. More significantly, two new pairs of low-level storm tracks over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are identified by using this high-resolution dataset. The pair over the North Pacific is focused in this paper, and is named as the "subtropical storm track" and the "subpolar storm track", respectively. Moreover, statistical analyses of cyclone and anticyclone trajectories in the winters of 1999 to 2005 reveal as well the existence of the low-level double storm tracks over the North Pacific.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40871094, 40775020 and 40871043)Construct Program of the Key Discipline in Hunan Province (Grant No. 2008001)
文摘In this study, we simulated and analyzed the monthly variations of stable water isotopes in different reservoirs at Manaus, Brazil, using the Community Land Model (CLM) that incorporates stable isotopic effects as a diagnostic tool for understanding stable water isotopic processes, filling the observational data gaps and predicting hydrometeorological processes. The simulation results show that the δ 18O values in precipitation, vapor and surface runoff have distinct seasonality with the marked negative correlations with corresponding water amount. Compared with the survey results by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in co-operation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the simulations by CLM reveal the similar temporal distributions of the δ 18O in precipitation. Moreover, the simulated amount effect between monthly δ 18O and monthly precipitation amount, and MWL (meteoric water line) are all close to the measured values. However, the simulated seasonal difference in the δ 18O in precipitation is distinctly smaller than observed one, and the simulated temporal distribution of the δ 18O in precipitation displays the ideal bimodal seasonality rather than the observed single one. These mismatches are possibly related to the simulation capacity and the veracity in forcing data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030604,41875051)the National Science Foundation(Grant No.AGS-1712290)+3 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M702725)sponsored by the MEL Outstanding Postdoctoral Scholarship from Xiamen Universitysupported by the East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Fund(Grant No.QYHZ201801)the project from the Qingdao Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.2021qdqxz01)。
文摘This study explores the controlling factors of the uncertainties and error growth at different spatial and temporal scales in forecasting the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province China on 19−20 July 2021 with a record-breaking hourly rainfall exceeding 200 mm and a 24-h rainfall exceeding 600 mm.Results show that the strengths of the mid-level low-pressure system,the upper-level divergence,and the low-level jet determine both the amount of the extreme 24-h accumulated and hourly rainfall at 0800 UTC.The forecast uncertainties of the accumulated rainfall are insensitive to the magnitude and the spatial structure of the tiny,unobservable errors in the initial conditions of the ensemble forecasts generated with Global Ensemble Forecast System(GEFS)or sub-grid-scale perturbations,suggesting that the predictability of this event is intrinsically limited.The dominance of upscale rather than upamplitude error growth is demonstrated under the regime of k^(−5/3) power spectra by revealing the inability of large-scale errors to grow until the amplitude of small-scale errors has increased to an adequate amplitude,and an apparent transfer of the fastest growing scale from smaller to larger scales with a slower growth rate at larger scales.Moist convective activities play a critical role in enhancing the overall error growth rate with a larger error growth rate at smaller scales.In addition,initial perturbations with different structures have different error growth features at larger scales in different variables in a regime transitioning from the k^(−5/3) to k^(−3) power law.Error growth with conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP)tends to be more upamplitude relative to the GEFS or sub-grid-scale perturbations possibly owing to the inherited error growth feature of CNOP,the inability of convective parameterization scheme to rebuild the k^(−5/3) power spectra at the mesoscales,and different error growth characteristics in the k^(−5/3) and k^(−3) regimes.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1507704)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42088101)。
文摘An exceptional rainy season occurred in the Yangtze River valley of eastern China in June-July 2020.The relative importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on this unusual event is evaluated through the budget equations of moisture and moist static energy(MSE).The moisture budget analysis suggests that the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation anomaly by 8.5%through the advection of abnormal water vapor by mean vertical motion,while the dynamic effect,related to water vapor advection by anomalous vertical motion,has the dominant contribution.The MSE budget analysis further reveals that the anomalous vertical motion is both constrained by the dynamic effect related to changes in atmospheric circulation and the thermodynamic effect related to changes of the atmospheric thermal state,with a ratio of thermodynamic versus total effects estimated at 45.3%.The dynamic effect is linked to the advection of warm and humid air by the abnormal southwesterly wind,which is related with an anomalous anticyclone over the Philippine Sea.The thermodynamic effect is partly induced by the positive advection of anomalous MSE(mainly latent energy)by the mean vertical motion.This analysis of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects is useful to understand the underlying physical mechanisms leading to the unusual rainy season in the Yangtze River valley in summer 2020.It is also helpful to put forward a few speculations on the potential role of global warming whose primary effect is,after all,to change the thermal state of the atmosphere.
