A lot of slow fluctuations of water level have been observed in the original recording maps of subsurface fluid in Well Shuozhou, Shanxi Province. Some typical recording maps of the 'precursors' are introduced...A lot of slow fluctuations of water level have been observed in the original recording maps of subsurface fluid in Well Shuozhou, Shanxi Province. Some typical recording maps of the 'precursors' are introduced in the paper and the features of the 'precursors' recorded by the well are analyzed. The results show that 38% strong earthquakes possess this kind of record, which has a fluctuation period arranging from several to tens of minutes and appear mostly two days before the earthquakes. Moreover, the mechanism, transmission and responding conditions of well water level are discussed, as well as the scientific meaning and practical value of the 'precursor' of the well water level in earthquake predictions.展开更多
The earthqnake emergency material preparation demand analysis can provide the scientific basis for all levels of governments to conduct reasonable and unified configuration of the emergency preparation resources, in o...The earthqnake emergency material preparation demand analysis can provide the scientific basis for all levels of governments to conduct reasonable and unified configuration of the emergency preparation resources, in order to further optimize the earthquake emergency ability construction to provide reference. This paper takes Datong City of Shanxi Province as an example, using the earthquake risk evaluation method, adopting the deterministic method and probabilistic method to conduct earthquake danger analysis, combined with the earthquake emergency rescue case and the previous scholars＇ research achievements, in order to study and analyze the earthquake emergency material preparation demand in different earthquake dangers.展开更多
In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the ...In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.展开更多
基金State Natural Science Foundation of China (19973011).
文摘A lot of slow fluctuations of water level have been observed in the original recording maps of subsurface fluid in Well Shuozhou, Shanxi Province. Some typical recording maps of the 'precursors' are introduced in the paper and the features of the 'precursors' recorded by the well are analyzed. The results show that 38% strong earthquakes possess this kind of record, which has a fluctuation period arranging from several to tens of minutes and appear mostly two days before the earthquakes. Moreover, the mechanism, transmission and responding conditions of well water level are discussed, as well as the scientific meaning and practical value of the 'precursor' of the well water level in earthquake predictions.
文摘The earthqnake emergency material preparation demand analysis can provide the scientific basis for all levels of governments to conduct reasonable and unified configuration of the emergency preparation resources, in order to further optimize the earthquake emergency ability construction to provide reference. This paper takes Datong City of Shanxi Province as an example, using the earthquake risk evaluation method, adopting the deterministic method and probabilistic method to conduct earthquake danger analysis, combined with the earthquake emergency rescue case and the previous scholars＇ research achievements, in order to study and analyze the earthquake emergency material preparation demand in different earthquake dangers.
文摘In this paper we discuss the physical meaning of the magnitude-time model parameters for earthquake prediction. The gestation process for strong earthquake in all eleven seismic zones in China can be described by the magnitude-time prediction model using the computations of the parameters of the model. The average model parameter values for China are： b = 0.383, c=0.154, d = 0.035, B = 0.844, C = -0.209, and D = 0.188. The robustness of the model parameters is estimated from the variation in the minimum magnitude of the transformed data, the spatial extent, and the temporal period. Analysis of the spatial and temporal suitability of the model indicates that the computation unit size should be at least 4°× 4°for seismic zones in North China, at least 3° × 3° in Southwest and Northwest China, and the time period should be as long as possible.
