The trophy hunting industry in Tanzania plays a significant role in wildlife conservation as well as economic and community development. Trophy hunting has been conducted in Rungwa Game Reserve (RGR) for several decad...The trophy hunting industry in Tanzania plays a significant role in wildlife conservation as well as economic and community development. Trophy hunting has been conducted in Rungwa Game Reserve (RGR) for several decades;however, the trophy hunting opinions from the local communities living adjacent to the reserve are not well documented. This study aimed to assess the awareness and attitudes of local communities living adjacent to Rungwa Game Reserves toward trophy hunting. Furthermore, the study assessed factors that influenced the opinions of participants by using structural equation modeling. We used semi-structured interviews and key informant interviews in the three villages adjacent to RGR. The local communities are aware of existing hunting operations around the game reserves. The study found positive attitudes among local communities toward trophy hunting, only if local people accrue benefits from hunting operations. The community’s attitudes towards trophy hunting varied across household size and occupation. Education and household position had an indirect influence on the community’s attitude. Our findings suggest that socio-demographic variables are important to consider when assessing awareness and attitudes toward trophy hunting. Local communities are willing to support trophy hunting operations if the benefits obtained from hunting are significant and it can improve wildlife conservation and their livelihood. In conclusion, trophy hunting is important to local communities living adjacent to protected areas, and banning them may have a significant impact on their livelihood and wildlife conservation. Therefore, it is recommended that conservation policies and interventions consider the dual significance of trophy hunting, fostering strategies that balance socio-economic benefits for communities and wildlife conservation.展开更多
Trophy hunting has severe consequences on wild animals’ behaviors, which in return has implications for affecting wildlife populations. The Selous Game Reserve is a protected area in Tanzania that has been subjected ...Trophy hunting has severe consequences on wild animals’ behaviors, which in return has implications for affecting wildlife populations. The Selous Game Reserve is a protected area in Tanzania that has been subjected to commercial trophy hunting for decades, and information about the effects of trophy hunting on animals’ welfare is still scarce. The Flight Initiating Distance (FID) can be a good measure to evaluate the welfare of animals and the level of risk perception towards anthropogenic disturbances, including trophy hunting. The study used linear mixed models to assess the flight responses of twelve commonly hunted species in the Selous game reserve (S.G.R.). The study compared animal vigilance between species, vegetation types, and group size. The FID varied between species, with which more vigilance was observed in zebras, elands, wildebeests, and sable antelopes. The study found a significant influence of vegetation cover on individual species’ FID. Further, the study found a significant influence of group size on animals’ vigilance (L. M. M., 95% CI = 0.590 - 4.762), in which there was a decrease in FID with an increase in group size for wildebeests. At the same time, other species, such as buffaloes, eland, hartebeests, and zebras, had their FIDs increasing with the increase in group size. We conclude that the impact of trophy hunting on savannah ungulates varies between species, vegetation covers, and group size of individual species. Regulatory authorities should consider minimum approach distances by trophy hunters in different vegetation cover to reduce animal biological disturbances.展开更多
It has been reported that changes to miombo woodland ecosystems through conversion to other land uses alter tree species diversity and soil properties. The aim was to assess whether the Important Value Index (IVI), Sh...It has been reported that changes to miombo woodland ecosystems through conversion to other land uses alter tree species diversity and soil properties. The aim was to assess whether the Important Value Index (IVI), Shannon- Wiener diversity index (H'), and soil chemical properties differ between land uses in the Kibutuka miombo woodland ecosystem. IVI and H' were used to indicate tree species dominance and diversity. Statistical analyses were performed in R software. IVI of Brachystegia was significantly (p Combretum, Milletia, and Diplorhynchus had significantly (p p p p < 0.05) higher in intact forests than in the degraded forest. Degradation seen at a landscape scale for vegetation parameters, but not for soil parameters, indicates that the land use change taking place in the Kibutuka miombo woodland ecosystem is recent and the degradation seen in vegetation is still not reflected in the soil properties.展开更多
Lion populations are declining globally, including in Tanzania, and Africa. However, Katavi National Park is a landscape with potential for a sustainable and healthy population of African lions (Panthera leo), but the...Lion populations are declining globally, including in Tanzania, and Africa. However, Katavi National Park is a landscape with potential for a sustainable and healthy population of African lions (Panthera leo), but there is currently limited reliable data indicating density and population size. This hinders the development of conservation action plans, including population monitoring, for this species. To address this data gap, we assessed lions’ demography and population estimates (population size and density) in the Katavi National Park using a call-back survey method. In addition, we assessed ecological factors that influenced distribution of lions to the call-back stations. Our estimated population size revealed 84 lions (95% CI 53 - 116), with a density of 5/100 km<sup>2</sup> (95% CI 3.14 - 6.86) in the sampled area, representing 38% of the total park. This resulted in an estimated 214 individuals when extrapolated to the whole park. Sixty-seven percent of lions that responded to the stations were female, and ecological factors that significantly influenced their distribution included elevation, land cover, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and prey abundance. Our results suggest that female lions are more abundant than males in Katavi National Park and that population size and density estimates, as well as understanding prey-lion relations, are important indices for lion monitoring and identifying conservation priorities. Further, our study suggests that the call-back survey method is an effective, rapid, and less costly population assessment method for lions, may be useful for assessing other social species in the Katavi ecosystem and can be a useful tool for community engagement and contributing to scientific monitoring.展开更多
Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape is prominent for its potential wildlife resources, which play a key role in sustaining the economy and livelihoods of the people. However, most of these resources are illegally obtained and...Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape is prominent for its potential wildlife resources, which play a key role in sustaining the economy and livelihoods of the people. However, most of these resources are illegally obtained and traded in different places within and outside the Ruaha landscape. Due to its illegal nature, most of the important information regarding the trade is poorly documented. Therefore, the current study aimed first, to explore the origin and destination of wildlife products;second, to assess the relationship between hunters and buyers or customers;third, to assess the means used to transport wildlife products;and lastly, to assess who influences people to engage in illegal hunting and trade activities. In addition, we assess the materials used in the exchange of wildlife products. Semi-structured questionnaires and face-to-face interviews were used to collect information from 123 respondents. Social network analysis was used to indicate the origin and destination of wildlife products. The findings show that 70% of wildlife products originate from the Ruaha National Park and MBOMIPA wildlife management areas, with the remaining 30% originating from villages. The majority of respondents (65%) reported transporting wildlife products by foot and bicycle as the primary modes of transportation. Suppliers of wildlife products are reported to have close and long-term relationships with their customers and traders, with most of whom being friends and relatives. We found most poachers to be influenced by their friends and relatives in terms making decision to engage in illegal wildlife trade. In addition, crops like maize and rice were the most popular products used to exchange with wildlife products in the Ruaha landscape. Therefore, in order to combat illegal trade in wildlife products at the local level, alternative income-generating activities need to be promoted accompanied by not only well-funded anti-poaching programmes but also more effective surveillance plans. These should entail the use of advanced techniques and skills, such as wildlife forensics.展开更多
Establishing knowledge of local communities regarding the potential health risks of illegal bushmeat hunting and its related practices is among the essential means to developing effective conservation and public healt...Establishing knowledge of local communities regarding the potential health risks of illegal bushmeat hunting and its related practices is among the essential means to developing effective conservation and public health programs. To reveal the understanding of the local people regarding the potential health risks of bushmeat consumption and handling of wildlife products, we used a semi-structured questionnaire to survey 261 households in eight villages located adjacent to the western part of Nyerere National Park. Also, we interviewed eight key informants, including conservation personnel and veterinary officers, in the study area. The proportion of local people who were unaware that handling of wildlife products and bushmeat consumption were risky behaviours towards acquiring zoonotic diseases was slightly higher (57%) than the proportion of respondents who were aware of the likely risks of zoonotic diseases from the practices. After all, the majority (83%) of local people admitted having come into contact with wildlife products, while over 70% reported having consumed bushmeat. We found that local communities living closer to the park boundaries (<15 km) have a higher likelihood of contacting wildlife products, and that community members who have lived in the area for more than ten years have experienced more contact with wildlife products than immigrants. Moreover, the age of inhabitants and length of stay were found to be the most significant factors in determining the likelihood of bushmeat consumption. Most people seemed to prefer bushmeat to domestic meat, arguing that bushmeat is far more flavorful, tender, not tainted with chemicals, and has less fat, making it safer. Our study demonstrated that local communities participate in risky practices without contemplating the health consequences that could emerge should a zoonotic disease outbreak occur. Among other strategies, we recommended conservation and public health institutions to increase awareness campaigns on the possible health risks of zoonotic diseases associated with wildlife.展开更多
Tanzania is considered a country with the largest number of African lions (Panthera leo). However, the continued absence of ecological population estimates and understanding of the associated factors influencing lion ...Tanzania is considered a country with the largest number of African lions (Panthera leo). However, the continued absence of ecological population estimates and understanding of the associated factors influencing lion distribution hinders the development of conservation planning. This is particularly true in the Ruaha-Rungwa landscape, where it was estimated that more than 10% of the global lion population currently resides. By using a call-back survey method, we aimed to provide population estimates (population size and density) of African lions in the Ruaha National Park, between wet (March 2019) and dry (October 2019) seasons. We also assessed the key factors that influenced the distribution of the observed lions towards call-back stations. Ferreira & Funston’s (2010) formula was used to calculate population size and in turn used to estimate density in the sampled area, while the Generalized Linear Model (GLMM) with zero-inflated Poisson error distribution was used to determine factors that influence the distribution of the observed lions to call-back stations. The population size we calculated for the sampled area of 3137.2 km<sup>2 </sup>revealed 286 lions (95% CI, 236 - 335) during the wet season, and 196 lions (95% CI, 192 - 200) during the dry season. The density of lions was 9.1/100 km<sup>2 </sup>during the wet season, and 6.3/100 km<sup>2</sup> during the dry season. Distance to water source had a significant negative effect on the distribution of the observed lions to the call-back stations, while habitat had a marginal effect. Our findings show that, although lion population estimates were larger during the wet season than the dry season, the season had no effect on the distribution of the observed lions to call-back stations. We suggest that the proximity to water sources is important in study design. Further, we suggest that density and population size are useful indices in identifying conservation area priorities and lion coexistence strategies.展开更多
Although Tanzania has a large land suitable for irrigation development, only 4.2% of the arable land which is potential for irrigation has been developed. Mbarali District is characterized by commercial and small-scal...Although Tanzania has a large land suitable for irrigation development, only 4.2% of the arable land which is potential for irrigation has been developed. Mbarali District is characterized by commercial and small-scale irrigation activities for paddy production. Currently, surface water availability for irrigation in Mbarali District is dwindling due to high water demands. Inadequate studies that estimate water availability for irrigation is one of the underlying factors to the lack of irrigation development in many parts of Tanzania including in Mbarali District. This study, therefore, aimed to model surface water availability for irrigation development in Mbarali River sub-catchment Mbeya, Tanzania. The Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and field observations were used to accomplish the study. The model estimates that Mbarali River sub-catchment receives about 631 mm of total mean precipitation annually. About 53% of received precipitation is lost through evapotranspiration, 12% recharged to deep aquifer and the remaining 35% discharged to the stream flow through surface runoff, lateral flow and return flow from unconfined aquifer. Discharge to the steam flow contributes to the total annual means of river discharge ranging from 0 - 10 cubic meters per second at upper catchment to 120 - 140 cubic meters per second at lower catchment. The study recommends that the lower reach of the Mbarali River sub-catchment is potential for irrigation than the upper reach as it has potential river flow that can support irrigation activities. The study also notes the urgent need for water reallocation plan to meet competing water needs in the lower reach of Mbarali River sub-catchment. Moreover, the study addresses the potentiality of irrigation in upper catchment under sustainable water management practices including excavation of small ponds to capture and store surface runoff for dry season use or to supplement irrigation as the rainfall declines.展开更多
River flow in the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to alter due to climate change, which would have an impact on aquatic habitats, infrastructure, and people’s way of life. Therefore, the influence of climate change sho...River flow in the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to alter due to climate change, which would have an impact on aquatic habitats, infrastructure, and people’s way of life. Therefore, the influence of climate change should be taken into account when making decisions about the sustainable management of water resources in the sub-basin. This study looked into how river discharge would react to climate change in the future. By contrasting hydrological characteristics simulated under historical climate (1981-2010) with projected climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) under two emission scenarios, the effects of climate change on river flow were evaluated (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The ensemble average of four CORDEX regional climate models was built to address the issue of uncertainty introduced by the climate models. The SWAT model was force-calibrated using the results from the generated ensemble average for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios in order to mimic the river flow during past (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) events. The increase in river flows for the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to be largest during the rainy season by both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the abrupt decrease in river flow is anticipated to reach its maximum in March 2037, when the discharge will be 44.84 m<sup>3</sup>/sec, and in March 2027, when the discharge will be 48 m<sup>3</sup>/sec. The extreme surge in river flow will peak, according to the RCA4, in February 2023, in April 2083 under RCP 4.5, and, according to the CCLM4 and RCA4, in November 2027 and November 2046, respectively. The expected decrease and increase in river flow throughout both the dry and wet seasons may have an impact on the management of the sub-water basin’s resources, biodiversity, and hydraulic structures. The right adaptations and mitigation strategies should be adopted in order to lessen the negative consequences of climate change on precipitation, temperature, and river flow in the sub-basin.展开更多
文摘The trophy hunting industry in Tanzania plays a significant role in wildlife conservation as well as economic and community development. Trophy hunting has been conducted in Rungwa Game Reserve (RGR) for several decades;however, the trophy hunting opinions from the local communities living adjacent to the reserve are not well documented. This study aimed to assess the awareness and attitudes of local communities living adjacent to Rungwa Game Reserves toward trophy hunting. Furthermore, the study assessed factors that influenced the opinions of participants by using structural equation modeling. We used semi-structured interviews and key informant interviews in the three villages adjacent to RGR. The local communities are aware of existing hunting operations around the game reserves. The study found positive attitudes among local communities toward trophy hunting, only if local people accrue benefits from hunting operations. The community’s attitudes towards trophy hunting varied across household size and occupation. Education and household position had an indirect influence on the community’s attitude. Our findings suggest that socio-demographic variables are important to consider when assessing awareness and attitudes toward trophy hunting. Local communities are willing to support trophy hunting operations if the benefits obtained from hunting are significant and it can improve wildlife conservation and their livelihood. In conclusion, trophy hunting is important to local communities living adjacent to protected areas, and banning them may have a significant impact on their livelihood and wildlife conservation. Therefore, it is recommended that conservation policies and interventions consider the dual significance of trophy hunting, fostering strategies that balance socio-economic benefits for communities and wildlife conservation.
文摘Trophy hunting has severe consequences on wild animals’ behaviors, which in return has implications for affecting wildlife populations. The Selous Game Reserve is a protected area in Tanzania that has been subjected to commercial trophy hunting for decades, and information about the effects of trophy hunting on animals’ welfare is still scarce. The Flight Initiating Distance (FID) can be a good measure to evaluate the welfare of animals and the level of risk perception towards anthropogenic disturbances, including trophy hunting. The study used linear mixed models to assess the flight responses of twelve commonly hunted species in the Selous game reserve (S.G.R.). The study compared animal vigilance between species, vegetation types, and group size. The FID varied between species, with which more vigilance was observed in zebras, elands, wildebeests, and sable antelopes. The study found a significant influence of vegetation cover on individual species’ FID. Further, the study found a significant influence of group size on animals’ vigilance (L. M. M., 95% CI = 0.590 - 4.762), in which there was a decrease in FID with an increase in group size for wildebeests. At the same time, other species, such as buffaloes, eland, hartebeests, and zebras, had their FIDs increasing with the increase in group size. We conclude that the impact of trophy hunting on savannah ungulates varies between species, vegetation covers, and group size of individual species. Regulatory authorities should consider minimum approach distances by trophy hunters in different vegetation cover to reduce animal biological disturbances.
文摘It has been reported that changes to miombo woodland ecosystems through conversion to other land uses alter tree species diversity and soil properties. The aim was to assess whether the Important Value Index (IVI), Shannon- Wiener diversity index (H'), and soil chemical properties differ between land uses in the Kibutuka miombo woodland ecosystem. IVI and H' were used to indicate tree species dominance and diversity. Statistical analyses were performed in R software. IVI of Brachystegia was significantly (p Combretum, Milletia, and Diplorhynchus had significantly (p p p p < 0.05) higher in intact forests than in the degraded forest. Degradation seen at a landscape scale for vegetation parameters, but not for soil parameters, indicates that the land use change taking place in the Kibutuka miombo woodland ecosystem is recent and the degradation seen in vegetation is still not reflected in the soil properties.
文摘Lion populations are declining globally, including in Tanzania, and Africa. However, Katavi National Park is a landscape with potential for a sustainable and healthy population of African lions (Panthera leo), but there is currently limited reliable data indicating density and population size. This hinders the development of conservation action plans, including population monitoring, for this species. To address this data gap, we assessed lions’ demography and population estimates (population size and density) in the Katavi National Park using a call-back survey method. In addition, we assessed ecological factors that influenced distribution of lions to the call-back stations. Our estimated population size revealed 84 lions (95% CI 53 - 116), with a density of 5/100 km<sup>2</sup> (95% CI 3.14 - 6.86) in the sampled area, representing 38% of the total park. This resulted in an estimated 214 individuals when extrapolated to the whole park. Sixty-seven percent of lions that responded to the stations were female, and ecological factors that significantly influenced their distribution included elevation, land cover, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and prey abundance. Our results suggest that female lions are more abundant than males in Katavi National Park and that population size and density estimates, as well as understanding prey-lion relations, are important indices for lion monitoring and identifying conservation priorities. Further, our study suggests that the call-back survey method is an effective, rapid, and less costly population assessment method for lions, may be useful for assessing other social species in the Katavi ecosystem and can be a useful tool for community engagement and contributing to scientific monitoring.
文摘Tanzania’s Ruaha landscape is prominent for its potential wildlife resources, which play a key role in sustaining the economy and livelihoods of the people. However, most of these resources are illegally obtained and traded in different places within and outside the Ruaha landscape. Due to its illegal nature, most of the important information regarding the trade is poorly documented. Therefore, the current study aimed first, to explore the origin and destination of wildlife products;second, to assess the relationship between hunters and buyers or customers;third, to assess the means used to transport wildlife products;and lastly, to assess who influences people to engage in illegal hunting and trade activities. In addition, we assess the materials used in the exchange of wildlife products. Semi-structured questionnaires and face-to-face interviews were used to collect information from 123 respondents. Social network analysis was used to indicate the origin and destination of wildlife products. The findings show that 70% of wildlife products originate from the Ruaha National Park and MBOMIPA wildlife management areas, with the remaining 30% originating from villages. The majority of respondents (65%) reported transporting wildlife products by foot and bicycle as the primary modes of transportation. Suppliers of wildlife products are reported to have close and long-term relationships with their customers and traders, with most of whom being friends and relatives. We found most poachers to be influenced by their friends and relatives in terms making decision to engage in illegal wildlife trade. In addition, crops like maize and rice were the most popular products used to exchange with wildlife products in the Ruaha landscape. Therefore, in order to combat illegal trade in wildlife products at the local level, alternative income-generating activities need to be promoted accompanied by not only well-funded anti-poaching programmes but also more effective surveillance plans. These should entail the use of advanced techniques and skills, such as wildlife forensics.
文摘Establishing knowledge of local communities regarding the potential health risks of illegal bushmeat hunting and its related practices is among the essential means to developing effective conservation and public health programs. To reveal the understanding of the local people regarding the potential health risks of bushmeat consumption and handling of wildlife products, we used a semi-structured questionnaire to survey 261 households in eight villages located adjacent to the western part of Nyerere National Park. Also, we interviewed eight key informants, including conservation personnel and veterinary officers, in the study area. The proportion of local people who were unaware that handling of wildlife products and bushmeat consumption were risky behaviours towards acquiring zoonotic diseases was slightly higher (57%) than the proportion of respondents who were aware of the likely risks of zoonotic diseases from the practices. After all, the majority (83%) of local people admitted having come into contact with wildlife products, while over 70% reported having consumed bushmeat. We found that local communities living closer to the park boundaries (<15 km) have a higher likelihood of contacting wildlife products, and that community members who have lived in the area for more than ten years have experienced more contact with wildlife products than immigrants. Moreover, the age of inhabitants and length of stay were found to be the most significant factors in determining the likelihood of bushmeat consumption. Most people seemed to prefer bushmeat to domestic meat, arguing that bushmeat is far more flavorful, tender, not tainted with chemicals, and has less fat, making it safer. Our study demonstrated that local communities participate in risky practices without contemplating the health consequences that could emerge should a zoonotic disease outbreak occur. Among other strategies, we recommended conservation and public health institutions to increase awareness campaigns on the possible health risks of zoonotic diseases associated with wildlife.
文摘Tanzania is considered a country with the largest number of African lions (Panthera leo). However, the continued absence of ecological population estimates and understanding of the associated factors influencing lion distribution hinders the development of conservation planning. This is particularly true in the Ruaha-Rungwa landscape, where it was estimated that more than 10% of the global lion population currently resides. By using a call-back survey method, we aimed to provide population estimates (population size and density) of African lions in the Ruaha National Park, between wet (March 2019) and dry (October 2019) seasons. We also assessed the key factors that influenced the distribution of the observed lions towards call-back stations. Ferreira & Funston’s (2010) formula was used to calculate population size and in turn used to estimate density in the sampled area, while the Generalized Linear Model (GLMM) with zero-inflated Poisson error distribution was used to determine factors that influence the distribution of the observed lions to call-back stations. The population size we calculated for the sampled area of 3137.2 km<sup>2 </sup>revealed 286 lions (95% CI, 236 - 335) during the wet season, and 196 lions (95% CI, 192 - 200) during the dry season. The density of lions was 9.1/100 km<sup>2 </sup>during the wet season, and 6.3/100 km<sup>2</sup> during the dry season. Distance to water source had a significant negative effect on the distribution of the observed lions to the call-back stations, while habitat had a marginal effect. Our findings show that, although lion population estimates were larger during the wet season than the dry season, the season had no effect on the distribution of the observed lions to call-back stations. We suggest that the proximity to water sources is important in study design. Further, we suggest that density and population size are useful indices in identifying conservation area priorities and lion coexistence strategies.
文摘Although Tanzania has a large land suitable for irrigation development, only 4.2% of the arable land which is potential for irrigation has been developed. Mbarali District is characterized by commercial and small-scale irrigation activities for paddy production. Currently, surface water availability for irrigation in Mbarali District is dwindling due to high water demands. Inadequate studies that estimate water availability for irrigation is one of the underlying factors to the lack of irrigation development in many parts of Tanzania including in Mbarali District. This study, therefore, aimed to model surface water availability for irrigation development in Mbarali River sub-catchment Mbeya, Tanzania. The Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and field observations were used to accomplish the study. The model estimates that Mbarali River sub-catchment receives about 631 mm of total mean precipitation annually. About 53% of received precipitation is lost through evapotranspiration, 12% recharged to deep aquifer and the remaining 35% discharged to the stream flow through surface runoff, lateral flow and return flow from unconfined aquifer. Discharge to the steam flow contributes to the total annual means of river discharge ranging from 0 - 10 cubic meters per second at upper catchment to 120 - 140 cubic meters per second at lower catchment. The study recommends that the lower reach of the Mbarali River sub-catchment is potential for irrigation than the upper reach as it has potential river flow that can support irrigation activities. The study also notes the urgent need for water reallocation plan to meet competing water needs in the lower reach of Mbarali River sub-catchment. Moreover, the study addresses the potentiality of irrigation in upper catchment under sustainable water management practices including excavation of small ponds to capture and store surface runoff for dry season use or to supplement irrigation as the rainfall declines.
文摘River flow in the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to alter due to climate change, which would have an impact on aquatic habitats, infrastructure, and people’s way of life. Therefore, the influence of climate change should be taken into account when making decisions about the sustainable management of water resources in the sub-basin. This study looked into how river discharge would react to climate change in the future. By contrasting hydrological characteristics simulated under historical climate (1981-2010) with projected climate (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) under two emission scenarios, the effects of climate change on river flow were evaluated (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The ensemble average of four CORDEX regional climate models was built to address the issue of uncertainty introduced by the climate models. The SWAT model was force-calibrated using the results from the generated ensemble average for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios in order to mimic the river flow during past (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) events. The increase in river flows for the Songwe sub-basin is predicted to be largest during the rainy season by both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the abrupt decrease in river flow is anticipated to reach its maximum in March 2037, when the discharge will be 44.84 m<sup>3</sup>/sec, and in March 2027, when the discharge will be 48 m<sup>3</sup>/sec. The extreme surge in river flow will peak, according to the RCA4, in February 2023, in April 2083 under RCP 4.5, and, according to the CCLM4 and RCA4, in November 2027 and November 2046, respectively. The expected decrease and increase in river flow throughout both the dry and wet seasons may have an impact on the management of the sub-water basin’s resources, biodiversity, and hydraulic structures. The right adaptations and mitigation strategies should be adopted in order to lessen the negative consequences of climate change on precipitation, temperature, and river flow in the sub-basin.
