Hazard maps are essential tools to aid decision makers in land-use planning,sustainable infrastructure development,and emergency preparedness.Despite the availability of historical data,there has been no attempt to pr...Hazard maps are essential tools to aid decision makers in land-use planning,sustainable infrastructure development,and emergency preparedness.Despite the availability of historical data,there has been no attempt to produce hazard maps for Kuwait.In cooperation with the World Bank,this study investigated the natural and anthropogenic hazards that affect Kuwait.The objective was to assess the hazards that face Kuwait and map the hazards of most concern.Hazard maps depicting the spatial distribution of hazard-prone areas are discussed in this article.Hazard assessment maps were generated using multiple datasets and techniques,including meteorological data,satellite imagery,and GIS.Hazard profiling identified a total of 25 hazards,of which five“priority”hazards were explored in detail:(1)surface water flooding;(2)dust storms and sand encroachment;(3)drought;(4)air pollution;and(5)oil spills.The results of this study can aid decision makers in targeting the hazards of most concern.The developed maps are valuable tools for emergency response and hazard mitigation.展开更多
In emergency decision making(EDM),it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly.Case-based reasoning(CBR)has been applied to EDM;however,choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after...In emergency decision making(EDM),it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly.Case-based reasoning(CBR)has been applied to EDM;however,choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after case retrieval remains challenging.This study proposes a dynamic method based on case retrieval and group decision making(GDM),called dynamic casebased reasoning group decision making(CBRGDM),for emergency alternative generation.In the proposed method,first,similar historical cases are identified through case similarity measurement.Then,evaluation information provided by group decision makers for similar cases is aggregated based on regret theory,and comprehensive perceived utilities for the similar cases are obtained.Finally,the most suitable historical case is obtained from the case similarities and the comprehensive perceived utilities for similar historical cases.The method is then applied to an example of a gas explosion in a coal company in China.The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective in EDM.The advantages of the proposed method are verified based on comparisons with existing methods.In particular,dynamic CBRGDM can adjust the emergency alternative according to changing emergencies.The results of application of dynamic CBRGDM to a gas explosion and comparison with existing methods verify its feasibility and practicability.展开更多
Although the notion of systemic risk gained prominence with respect to financial systems, it is a generic term that refers to risks of increasing importance in many domains—risks that cannot be tackled by conventiona...Although the notion of systemic risk gained prominence with respect to financial systems, it is a generic term that refers to risks of increasing importance in many domains—risks that cannot be tackled by conventional techniques of risk management and governance. We build on a domain-overarching definition of systemic risks by highlighting crucial properties that distinguish them from conventional risks and plain disasters. References to typical examples from various domains are included. Common features of systemic risks in different domains—such as the role of agents and emergence phenomena, tipping and cascading, parameters indicating instability, and historicity—turn out to be more than noncommittal empirical observations. Rather these features can be related to fundamental theory for relatively simple and well-understood systems in physics and chemistry. A crucial mechanism is the breakdown of macroscopic patterns of whole systems due to feedback reinforcing actions of agents on the microlevel, where the reinforcement is triggered by boundary conditions moving beyond critical tipping points.Throughout the whole article, emphasis is placed on the role of complexity science as a basis for unifying the phenomena of systemic risks in widely different domains.展开更多
In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concre...In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concrete and steel structures with heights varying from five stories to 13 stories were analyzed. Their seismic fragility was evaluated using two procedures from the literature. In the first procedure(SPO2 FRAG), the fragility was derived based on the pushover curves using the SPO2 IDA algorithm, while in the second procedure(FRACAS), the fragility was derived from nonlinear time-history analyses. The analyzed structures were designed for three levels of peak ground accelerations, corresponding to mean return periods of 100,225, and 475 years. Subsequently, the damage assessment of the analyzed structures was performed using ground motions generated from a Monte-Carlo simulated earthquake catalogue for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source. The damage degrees that were estimated using the SPO2 FRAG approach are higher than those estimated using the FRACAS approach. The life-cycle analysis of the structures shows that a further increase of the design peak ground acceleration for Bucharest is feasible from an economic point of view using the SPO2 FRAG results.However, based on the FRACAS results, the opposite conclusion can be drawn. Finally, generic lognormal fragility functions are proposed as a function of building height and structural system.展开更多
Geological disasters are a great threat to people's lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new met...Geological disasters are a great threat to people's lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new methods for such evaluation is much needed. In this study, the authors have developed a joint procedure that couples the Newmark model and the RockFall Analyst model based on a GIS platform in order to identify the impact of seismic landslides on roads. The new method effectively combines two processes—seismic landslide occurrence probability analysis and mass movement trajectory simulation. The permanent displacement derived from the Newmark model is used to identify potential source areas of landslides.Based on the RockFall Analyst model, the possible impact of mass movement on the roads can be simulated. To verify the reliability of the method, the landslides induced by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake were taken as a case study.The results suggest that about 21.37% of the study area is at high risk of seismic landslides, and approximately 3.95 km of road sections are at extremely high risk of large landslides. The simulated area is consistent with the distribution of disasters revealed by post-earthquake remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in existing studies. This indicates that the procedure, which joins the Newmark and RockFall models, has a high reliability for risk identification and can be applied to seismic landslide risk assessment and prediction in similar areas.展开更多
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research papers addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency re...The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research papers addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency response technology,and risk management;disaster risk governance policies and regulations;and case studies and comparative research internationally on responses to major disasters.展开更多
Improving our ability to cope with large risks is one of the key challenges for humankind in this century. This article outlines a research program in this perspective. Starting with a concrete example of a relatively...Improving our ability to cope with large risks is one of the key challenges for humankind in this century. This article outlines a research program in this perspective. Starting with a concrete example of a relatively small disaster, it questions simplistic ideas of rationality. It then proposes a fresh look at the concepts of probability and utility in the context of socioecological systems. This leads first to an emphasis on the problem of equilibrium selection, and then to a distinction between three kinds of resilience that matter both for theory and practice of risk management. They can be investigated by paying attention to the transitions into and out of actual disasters.展开更多
Enterprises play a vital role in emergency management,but few studies have considered the strategy choices behind such participation or the collaborative relationship with the government.This study contended that ente...Enterprises play a vital role in emergency management,but few studies have considered the strategy choices behind such participation or the collaborative relationship with the government.This study contended that enterprises have at least three strategies regarding emergency management:non-participation,short-term participation,and long-term participation.We constructed a two-stage evolutionary game model to explore the behavioral evolution rules and evolutionary stability strategies of the government and enterprises,and employed numerical simulation to analyze how various factors influence the strategy selection of the government and enterprises.The results show that if and only if the utility value of participation is greater than 0,an enterprise will participate in emergency management.The evolutionary game then enters the second stage,during which system stability is affected by a synergistic relationship between participation cost,reputation benefit,and government subsidies,and by an incremental relationship between emergency management benefit,government subsidies,and emergency training cost.This study provides a new theoretical perspective for research on collaborative emergency management,and the results provide important references for promoting the performance of collaborative emergency management.展开更多
This study examined the effect of natural hazards on manufacturing industry value added and the sensitivity of the results from changes to spatiotemporal resolution of the data.We measured the negative effects of haza...This study examined the effect of natural hazards on manufacturing industry value added and the sensitivity of the results from changes to spatiotemporal resolution of the data.We measured the negative effects of hazards,rather than the net effect.Three models were developed with varying spatio temporal units for the continental United States:annual/county units;annual/state units;and quarterly/state units.Three simulations were run using each model to estimate the negative effect of damage from all natural hazards on value added across spatiotemporal scales.Finally,an investment analysis was conducted to examine the return from public investments in hazard resilience.The results do not demonstrate that,locally,natural hazards reduce value added.However,the evidence suggests that natural hazards in the upstream supply chain have statistically significant impact when modeled at the annual/county scale and at the quarterly/state scale.Neither local nor supply chain hazards have a statistically significant effect when modeled at the annual/state scale,suggesting that broader spatiotemporal units may obscure the true downstream effects of natural hazards.The investment analysis,utilizing model results,suggests that an investment of USD 100 billion or less is economical if it results in a reduction in losses of 10% or more.展开更多
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is supervised by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China and supported by the National Disaster Reduction Center.The Editorial Office is at the A...The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is supervised by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China and supported by the National Disaster Reduction Center.The Editorial Office is at the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University.The journal is also supported by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology。展开更多
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research articles addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency ...The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research articles addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency response technology,and risk management;disaster risk governance policies and regulations;and case studies and comparative research internationally on responses to major disasters.The journal also publishes short articles and updates on projects,conferences,and research progress.展开更多
Many methodologies identify, analyze, and assess static risks to quantify potential disaster losses based on past and current events. Static methodologies will not, however, capture how climate change and adaptation a...Many methodologies identify, analyze, and assess static risks to quantify potential disaster losses based on past and current events. Static methodologies will not, however, capture how climate change and adaptation are rapidly affecting the natural and social systems in many areas. Local and global changes such as those associated with development investments, livelihood pressures, political stability, and demographic trends are also affecting many areas, especially in emerging economies. Risk identification, analysis, and assessment methodologies must integrate all changes dynamically so that risk reduction and development decisions can be based on future needs. After a theoretical explanation of how to integrate dynamic changes, a static Household Economy Analysis(HEA) completed for a rapidly changing area of East Timor was altered using current trends to make the analysis more dynamic. Some inherent difficulties exist with a more dynamic approach and recommendations for overcoming them are presented. Research, government, and nongovernment personnel interested in integrated approaches to risk reduction and development decision-making in areas subject to rapid change will find the study useful.展开更多
Producers’ acreage decisions in response to the availability of insurance and government subsidy has been a topic of considerable attention. This study revisits the issue of agriculture producers’ production behavio...Producers’ acreage decisions in response to the availability of insurance and government subsidy has been a topic of considerable attention. This study revisits the issue of agriculture producers’ production behavior under crop insurance and premium subsidy conditions. The discussion begins by differentiating between the assumptions of the classic insurance model and that model’s application to crop insurance. A discussion of a closed dual economy model follows. Price difference in cases of disaster and no disaster essentially determines producers’ response to the availability of a premium subsidy. A producer can obtain higher production revenue due to the significant increase in price induced by yield loss if the economy is closed and a subsistence constraint is taken into account. In this case, a premium subsidy could induce producers to lower their output level. The result is further generalized by two model extensions in which assumptions are relaxed to allow openness in the economy or intertemporal storage of grains with grain reserve policy. The findings of this article suggest that governments should carefully examine the actual risk-bearing pattern of crop producers before any subsidy policy is implemented.展开更多
Society is reliant on infrastructure services, such as information and communication technology, energy, water, and food supply, but also on governmental, cultural, and search and rescue organizations. The goal of pro...Society is reliant on infrastructure services, such as information and communication technology, energy, water, and food supply, but also on governmental, cultural, and search and rescue organizations. The goal of project KritisKAT at the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance in Germany is the development of generic criteria for the identification and evaluation of infrastructures regarded as “critical” for society. Acknowledging that full protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible, the approach focuses on the impacts rather than the prevention of threats. The development of generic criteria requires the prioritization of infrastructures and identification of their key characteristics for civil protection purposes, risk management activities, and strategic proactive planning. For this purpose, the development of a national critical infrastructure priority inventory is based on a thorough examination of the range of criteria typically used in similar approaches. The specific focus of this paper is to identify and simplify essential characteristics of infrastructure criticality. The main outcome of this study is the development of common criteria generally applicable to a variety of infrastructures.展开更多
The development of agriculture and the rural economy play a crucial role in China’s socioeconomic system. Agriculture insurance has become key in ensuring the growth of agriculture and stabilizing farmers’ income wh...The development of agriculture and the rural economy play a crucial role in China’s socioeconomic system. Agriculture insurance has become key in ensuring the growth of agriculture and stabilizing farmers’ income when faced with natural disasters. The focus of this article is the history of the development of Chinese agriculture insurance since the 1980 s and the trial of a new agriculture insurance launched in 2007, the policy details implemented in selected provinces, and the operation models. Using results from an investigation and field survey conducted since 2007 in Hunan Province, this article analyzes the performance and effects of this agriculture insurance trial run from the perspectives of different participating stakeholders, and with an emphasis on the program’s four principles. The experience and lessons learned are summarized, followed by recommendations on how to ensure the smooth operation and sustainable development of this new agriculture insurance program.展开更多
Industrial accidents have shown that many people can be affected,such as in Seveso,Italy,in 1976.Industrial accidents in nuclear power plants have also led to fatalities and evacuations.To better guide preparedness ag...Industrial accidents have shown that many people can be affected,such as in Seveso,Italy,in 1976.Industrial accidents in nuclear power plants have also led to fatalities and evacuations.To better guide preparedness against and mitigation of industrial accidents,an assessment is necessary to evaluate hazard exposure and the type of potentially vulnerable social groups that need to be taken into account.This study conducted a spatial assessment of three types of industrial facilities in Germany:facilities registered under the Seveso Directive,chemical parks,and nuclear power plants.The method consisted of a spatial assessment using a Geographic Information System of exposure around hazardous sites registered under the S eveso Directive in Germany and of census data to analyze social vulnerability.Hazards analyzed included industrial accidents and earthquakes.The results revealed that most industrial sites are in urban areas and that population density,the numbers of foreigners,and smaller housing unit sizes are higher in close proximity to these sites.The buffer zones analyzed in circles between 1 and 40 km show a decreasing vulnerability with more distance.This can guide emergency management planners and other stakeholders to better prepare for major accidents and better devise disaster risk reduction strategies specifically for different social groups.展开更多
Five years after almost all African states signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), disasters still have a significant impact on the populations of Africa, their livelihoods, and the ...Five years after almost all African states signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), disasters still have a significant impact on the populations of Africa, their livelihoods, and the infrastructure on which they depend. In contrast with the period of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015,African countries not only adopted the SFDRR but also internalized the various priorities by developing an additional five targets applicable to the continent. This article takes a look at the progress made in Africa against the SFDRR and its seven targets thus far. To determine the progress, a mixed methods research approach was followed. The research found that African states are making progress, but decisive action is needed to reach the 2030 targets of the SFDRR. Much better data and information management are needed, and the limitations towards reaching the SFDRR targets must translate into community-based actions geared towards resilience building.展开更多
This article applies a Markov chain method to compute the probability of residential fire occurrence based on past fire history. Fitted with the fire incidence data gathered over a period of 10 years in Melbourne, Aus...This article applies a Markov chain method to compute the probability of residential fire occurrence based on past fire history. Fitted with the fire incidence data gathered over a period of 10 years in Melbourne, Australia,the spatially-integrated fire risk model predicts the likely occurrence of fire incidents using space and time as key model parameters. The mapped probabilities of fire occurrence across Melbourne show a city-centric spatial pattern where inner-city areas are relatively more vulnerable to a fire than outer suburbia. Fire risk reduces in a neighborhood when there is at least one fire in the last1 month. The results show that the time threshold of reduced fire risk after the fire occurrence is about 2 months.Fire risk increases when there is no fire in the last 1 month within the third-order neighborhood(within 5 km). A fire that occurs within this distance range, however, has no significant effect on reducing fire risk level within the neighborhood. The spatial–temporal dependencies of fire risk provide new empirical evidence useful for fire agencies to effectively plan and implement geo-targeted fire risk interventions and education programs to mitigate potential fire risk in areas where and when they are most needed.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs) cause catastrophic loss in many coastal areas of the world. TC wind hazard maps can play an important role in disaster management. A good representation of local factors reflecting the effects o...Tropical cyclones(TCs) cause catastrophic loss in many coastal areas of the world. TC wind hazard maps can play an important role in disaster management. A good representation of local factors reflecting the effects of spatially heterogeneous terrain and land cover is critical to evaluation of TC wind hazard. Very few studies, however,provide global wind hazard assessment results that consider detailed local effects. In this study, the wind fields of historical TCs were simulated with parametric models in which the planetary boundary layer models explicitly integrate local effects at 1 km resolution. The topographic effects for eight wind directions were quantified over four types of terrain(ground, escarpment, ridge, and valley),and the surface roughness lengths were estimated from a global land cover map. The missing TC parameters in the best track datasets were reconstructed with local regression models. Finally, an example of a wind hazard map in the form of wind speeds under a 100-year return period and corresponding uncertainties was created based on a statistical analysis of reconstructed historical wind fields over seven of the world's ocean basins.展开更多
In recent years,‘‘health’’has been recognized explicitly as both a determinant and an outcome of the human dimension of disaster risk reduction(DRR).Every disaster creates significant public health needs that can ...In recent years,‘‘health’’has been recognized explicitly as both a determinant and an outcome of the human dimension of disaster risk reduction(DRR).Every disaster creates significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond,resulting in excess mortality and morbidity.The European Union report on Science展开更多
基金funded by the Kuwait Ministry of Finance for the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research(KISR)under project no.P-KISR-06-02 entitled Multi-Hazard Macro-Assessment Study and Strengthening Environmental Crisis Management in Kuwait.
文摘Hazard maps are essential tools to aid decision makers in land-use planning,sustainable infrastructure development,and emergency preparedness.Despite the availability of historical data,there has been no attempt to produce hazard maps for Kuwait.In cooperation with the World Bank,this study investigated the natural and anthropogenic hazards that affect Kuwait.The objective was to assess the hazards that face Kuwait and map the hazards of most concern.Hazard maps depicting the spatial distribution of hazard-prone areas are discussed in this article.Hazard assessment maps were generated using multiple datasets and techniques,including meteorological data,satellite imagery,and GIS.Hazard profiling identified a total of 25 hazards,of which five“priority”hazards were explored in detail:(1)surface water flooding;(2)dust storms and sand encroachment;(3)drought;(4)air pollution;and(5)oil spills.The results of this study can aid decision makers in targeting the hazards of most concern.The developed maps are valuable tools for emergency response and hazard mitigation.
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the Grant Nos.71371053 and 71902034Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Chinese Ministry of Education,No.20YJC630229+1 种基金Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Fujian Province,No.FJ2019B079Science and Technology Development Center of Chinese Ministry of Education.No.2018A0I019.
文摘In emergency decision making(EDM),it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly.Case-based reasoning(CBR)has been applied to EDM;however,choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after case retrieval remains challenging.This study proposes a dynamic method based on case retrieval and group decision making(GDM),called dynamic casebased reasoning group decision making(CBRGDM),for emergency alternative generation.In the proposed method,first,similar historical cases are identified through case similarity measurement.Then,evaluation information provided by group decision makers for similar cases is aggregated based on regret theory,and comprehensive perceived utilities for the similar cases are obtained.Finally,the most suitable historical case is obtained from the case similarities and the comprehensive perceived utilities for similar historical cases.The method is then applied to an example of a gas explosion in a coal company in China.The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective in EDM.The advantages of the proposed method are verified based on comparisons with existing methods.In particular,dynamic CBRGDM can adjust the emergency alternative according to changing emergencies.The results of application of dynamic CBRGDM to a gas explosion and comparison with existing methods verify its feasibility and practicability.
基金financial and institutional support provided by the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, Berlin (BBAW)the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam (IASS)
文摘Although the notion of systemic risk gained prominence with respect to financial systems, it is a generic term that refers to risks of increasing importance in many domains—risks that cannot be tackled by conventional techniques of risk management and governance. We build on a domain-overarching definition of systemic risks by highlighting crucial properties that distinguish them from conventional risks and plain disasters. References to typical examples from various domains are included. Common features of systemic risks in different domains—such as the role of agents and emergence phenomena, tipping and cascading, parameters indicating instability, and historicity—turn out to be more than noncommittal empirical observations. Rather these features can be related to fundamental theory for relatively simple and well-understood systems in physics and chemistry. A crucial mechanism is the breakdown of macroscopic patterns of whole systems due to feedback reinforcing actions of agents on the microlevel, where the reinforcement is triggered by boundary conditions moving beyond critical tipping points.Throughout the whole article, emphasis is placed on the role of complexity science as a basis for unifying the phenomena of systemic risks in widely different domains.
文摘In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concrete and steel structures with heights varying from five stories to 13 stories were analyzed. Their seismic fragility was evaluated using two procedures from the literature. In the first procedure(SPO2 FRAG), the fragility was derived based on the pushover curves using the SPO2 IDA algorithm, while in the second procedure(FRACAS), the fragility was derived from nonlinear time-history analyses. The analyzed structures were designed for three levels of peak ground accelerations, corresponding to mean return periods of 100,225, and 475 years. Subsequently, the damage assessment of the analyzed structures was performed using ground motions generated from a Monte-Carlo simulated earthquake catalogue for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source. The damage degrees that were estimated using the SPO2 FRAG approach are higher than those estimated using the FRACAS approach. The life-cycle analysis of the structures shows that a further increase of the design peak ground acceleration for Bucharest is feasible from an economic point of view using the SPO2 FRAG results.However, based on the FRACAS results, the opposite conclusion can be drawn. Finally, generic lognormal fragility functions are proposed as a function of building height and structural system.
基金financially supported by the Pioneer Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19040304)the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC150290402)the Cultivate Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. TSYJS03)
文摘Geological disasters are a great threat to people's lives and property. At present, it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the cascading effects of regional geological disasters, and the development of new methods for such evaluation is much needed. In this study, the authors have developed a joint procedure that couples the Newmark model and the RockFall Analyst model based on a GIS platform in order to identify the impact of seismic landslides on roads. The new method effectively combines two processes—seismic landslide occurrence probability analysis and mass movement trajectory simulation. The permanent displacement derived from the Newmark model is used to identify potential source areas of landslides.Based on the RockFall Analyst model, the possible impact of mass movement on the roads can be simulated. To verify the reliability of the method, the landslides induced by the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake were taken as a case study.The results suggest that about 21.37% of the study area is at high risk of seismic landslides, and approximately 3.95 km of road sections are at extremely high risk of large landslides. The simulated area is consistent with the distribution of disasters revealed by post-earthquake remote sensing image interpretation and field investigation in existing studies. This indicates that the procedure, which joins the Newmark and RockFall models, has a high reliability for risk identification and can be applied to seismic landslide risk assessment and prediction in similar areas.
文摘The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research papers addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency response technology,and risk management;disaster risk governance policies and regulations;and case studies and comparative research internationally on responses to major disasters.
文摘Improving our ability to cope with large risks is one of the key challenges for humankind in this century. This article outlines a research program in this perspective. Starting with a concrete example of a relatively small disaster, it questions simplistic ideas of rationality. It then proposes a fresh look at the concepts of probability and utility in the context of socioecological systems. This leads first to an emphasis on the problem of equilibrium selection, and then to a distinction between three kinds of resilience that matter both for theory and practice of risk management. They can be investigated by paying attention to the transitions into and out of actual disasters.
基金supported by the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.21&ZD166)the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.22VRC200)the China Scholarship Council(CSC,Grant No.202206420064)。
文摘Enterprises play a vital role in emergency management,but few studies have considered the strategy choices behind such participation or the collaborative relationship with the government.This study contended that enterprises have at least three strategies regarding emergency management:non-participation,short-term participation,and long-term participation.We constructed a two-stage evolutionary game model to explore the behavioral evolution rules and evolutionary stability strategies of the government and enterprises,and employed numerical simulation to analyze how various factors influence the strategy selection of the government and enterprises.The results show that if and only if the utility value of participation is greater than 0,an enterprise will participate in emergency management.The evolutionary game then enters the second stage,during which system stability is affected by a synergistic relationship between participation cost,reputation benefit,and government subsidies,and by an incremental relationship between emergency management benefit,government subsidies,and emergency training cost.This study provides a new theoretical perspective for research on collaborative emergency management,and the results provide important references for promoting the performance of collaborative emergency management.
文摘This study examined the effect of natural hazards on manufacturing industry value added and the sensitivity of the results from changes to spatiotemporal resolution of the data.We measured the negative effects of hazards,rather than the net effect.Three models were developed with varying spatio temporal units for the continental United States:annual/county units;annual/state units;and quarterly/state units.Three simulations were run using each model to estimate the negative effect of damage from all natural hazards on value added across spatiotemporal scales.Finally,an investment analysis was conducted to examine the return from public investments in hazard resilience.The results do not demonstrate that,locally,natural hazards reduce value added.However,the evidence suggests that natural hazards in the upstream supply chain have statistically significant impact when modeled at the annual/county scale and at the quarterly/state scale.Neither local nor supply chain hazards have a statistically significant effect when modeled at the annual/state scale,suggesting that broader spatiotemporal units may obscure the true downstream effects of natural hazards.The investment analysis,utilizing model results,suggests that an investment of USD 100 billion or less is economical if it results in a reduction in losses of 10% or more.
文摘The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is supervised by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China and supported by the National Disaster Reduction Center.The Editorial Office is at the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University.The journal is also supported by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology。
文摘The International Journal of Disaster Risk Science is an interdisciplinary English language journal that publishes research articles addressing theoretical and methodological issues in disaster risk science,emergency response technology,and risk management;disaster risk governance policies and regulations;and case studies and comparative research internationally on responses to major disasters.The journal also publishes short articles and updates on projects,conferences,and research progress.
文摘Many methodologies identify, analyze, and assess static risks to quantify potential disaster losses based on past and current events. Static methodologies will not, however, capture how climate change and adaptation are rapidly affecting the natural and social systems in many areas. Local and global changes such as those associated with development investments, livelihood pressures, political stability, and demographic trends are also affecting many areas, especially in emerging economies. Risk identification, analysis, and assessment methodologies must integrate all changes dynamically so that risk reduction and development decisions can be based on future needs. After a theoretical explanation of how to integrate dynamic changes, a static Household Economy Analysis(HEA) completed for a rapidly changing area of East Timor was altered using current trends to make the analysis more dynamic. Some inherent difficulties exist with a more dynamic approach and recommendations for overcoming them are presented. Research, government, and nongovernment personnel interested in integrated approaches to risk reduction and development decision-making in areas subject to rapid change will find the study useful.
基金This study was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant 41001357 and the Scientific Research Foundation of Beijing Normal University.
文摘Producers’ acreage decisions in response to the availability of insurance and government subsidy has been a topic of considerable attention. This study revisits the issue of agriculture producers’ production behavior under crop insurance and premium subsidy conditions. The discussion begins by differentiating between the assumptions of the classic insurance model and that model’s application to crop insurance. A discussion of a closed dual economy model follows. Price difference in cases of disaster and no disaster essentially determines producers’ response to the availability of a premium subsidy. A producer can obtain higher production revenue due to the significant increase in price induced by yield loss if the economy is closed and a subsistence constraint is taken into account. In this case, a premium subsidy could induce producers to lower their output level. The result is further generalized by two model extensions in which assumptions are relaxed to allow openness in the economy or intertemporal storage of grains with grain reserve policy. The findings of this article suggest that governments should carefully examine the actual risk-bearing pattern of crop producers before any subsidy policy is implemented.
文摘Society is reliant on infrastructure services, such as information and communication technology, energy, water, and food supply, but also on governmental, cultural, and search and rescue organizations. The goal of project KritisKAT at the Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance in Germany is the development of generic criteria for the identification and evaluation of infrastructures regarded as “critical” for society. Acknowledging that full protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible, the approach focuses on the impacts rather than the prevention of threats. The development of generic criteria requires the prioritization of infrastructures and identification of their key characteristics for civil protection purposes, risk management activities, and strategic proactive planning. For this purpose, the development of a national critical infrastructure priority inventory is based on a thorough examination of the range of criteria typically used in similar approaches. The specific focus of this paper is to identify and simplify essential characteristics of infrastructure criticality. The main outcome of this study is the development of common criteria generally applicable to a variety of infrastructures.
基金This work is jointly supported by the International Cooperation Project(2010DFB20880)Integrated Risk Governance–Models and Modelling funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of ChinaKey Team-Built Project funded by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecologyand National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(41001357)Study on the Impact of Spatial Inter-Dependency of Natural Disaster Risk on the Insurability of Losses:Taking Paddy Rice in Hunan Province as an Example.
文摘The development of agriculture and the rural economy play a crucial role in China’s socioeconomic system. Agriculture insurance has become key in ensuring the growth of agriculture and stabilizing farmers’ income when faced with natural disasters. The focus of this article is the history of the development of Chinese agriculture insurance since the 1980 s and the trial of a new agriculture insurance launched in 2007, the policy details implemented in selected provinces, and the operation models. Using results from an investigation and field survey conducted since 2007 in Hunan Province, this article analyzes the performance and effects of this agriculture insurance trial run from the perspectives of different participating stakeholders, and with an emphasis on the program’s four principles. The experience and lessons learned are summarized, followed by recommendations on how to ensure the smooth operation and sustainable development of this new agriculture insurance program.
文摘Industrial accidents have shown that many people can be affected,such as in Seveso,Italy,in 1976.Industrial accidents in nuclear power plants have also led to fatalities and evacuations.To better guide preparedness against and mitigation of industrial accidents,an assessment is necessary to evaluate hazard exposure and the type of potentially vulnerable social groups that need to be taken into account.This study conducted a spatial assessment of three types of industrial facilities in Germany:facilities registered under the Seveso Directive,chemical parks,and nuclear power plants.The method consisted of a spatial assessment using a Geographic Information System of exposure around hazardous sites registered under the S eveso Directive in Germany and of census data to analyze social vulnerability.Hazards analyzed included industrial accidents and earthquakes.The results revealed that most industrial sites are in urban areas and that population density,the numbers of foreigners,and smaller housing unit sizes are higher in close proximity to these sites.The buffer zones analyzed in circles between 1 and 40 km show a decreasing vulnerability with more distance.This can guide emergency management planners and other stakeholders to better prepare for major accidents and better devise disaster risk reduction strategies specifically for different social groups.
文摘Five years after almost all African states signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR), disasters still have a significant impact on the populations of Africa, their livelihoods, and the infrastructure on which they depend. In contrast with the period of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015,African countries not only adopted the SFDRR but also internalized the various priorities by developing an additional five targets applicable to the continent. This article takes a look at the progress made in Africa against the SFDRR and its seven targets thus far. To determine the progress, a mixed methods research approach was followed. The research found that African states are making progress, but decisive action is needed to reach the 2030 targets of the SFDRR. Much better data and information management are needed, and the limitations towards reaching the SFDRR targets must translate into community-based actions geared towards resilience building.
文摘This article applies a Markov chain method to compute the probability of residential fire occurrence based on past fire history. Fitted with the fire incidence data gathered over a period of 10 years in Melbourne, Australia,the spatially-integrated fire risk model predicts the likely occurrence of fire incidents using space and time as key model parameters. The mapped probabilities of fire occurrence across Melbourne show a city-centric spatial pattern where inner-city areas are relatively more vulnerable to a fire than outer suburbia. Fire risk reduces in a neighborhood when there is at least one fire in the last1 month. The results show that the time threshold of reduced fire risk after the fire occurrence is about 2 months.Fire risk increases when there is no fire in the last 1 month within the third-order neighborhood(within 5 km). A fire that occurs within this distance range, however, has no significant effect on reducing fire risk level within the neighborhood. The spatial–temporal dependencies of fire risk provide new empirical evidence useful for fire agencies to effectively plan and implement geo-targeted fire risk interventions and education programs to mitigate potential fire risk in areas where and when they are most needed.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFA0604903)
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs) cause catastrophic loss in many coastal areas of the world. TC wind hazard maps can play an important role in disaster management. A good representation of local factors reflecting the effects of spatially heterogeneous terrain and land cover is critical to evaluation of TC wind hazard. Very few studies, however,provide global wind hazard assessment results that consider detailed local effects. In this study, the wind fields of historical TCs were simulated with parametric models in which the planetary boundary layer models explicitly integrate local effects at 1 km resolution. The topographic effects for eight wind directions were quantified over four types of terrain(ground, escarpment, ridge, and valley),and the surface roughness lengths were estimated from a global land cover map. The missing TC parameters in the best track datasets were reconstructed with local regression models. Finally, an example of a wind hazard map in the form of wind speeds under a 100-year return period and corresponding uncertainties was created based on a statistical analysis of reconstructed historical wind fields over seven of the world's ocean basins.
文摘In recent years,‘‘health’’has been recognized explicitly as both a determinant and an outcome of the human dimension of disaster risk reduction(DRR).Every disaster creates significant public health needs that can exceed local capacity to respond,resulting in excess mortality and morbidity.The European Union report on Science
